Barcelona vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction: Yamal-inspired hosts to do the business

Barcelona and Borussia Dortmund meet for the second time this season in the Champions League on Wednesday night (20:00, live on TNT Sports 2).

Read on for Mark's Barcelona vs Borussia Dortmund predictions, complete with the latest odds and team news.

That result came at a time when Barça were actually going through a very significant wobble in La Liga, but they’ve been very consistent in this season’s Champions League, winning eight out of nine matches in the competition since a defeat at Monaco in their opening league phase game.

There are certainly parallels here with their round-of-16 tie against Benfica, another side they had already defeated away in the league stage. That was a remarkable match that ended 5-4 in favour of Hansi Flick’s team, but they were more assured defensively when the sides met again in their knockout tie.

They did have a lot of defending to do in the first leg, with Pau Cubarsí’s early red card leaving Barça playing with 10 men for more than an hour. They still secured a 1-0 victory thanks to some inspired goalkeeping from Wojciech Szczęsny and a fine strike from Raphinha, before cruising home with a 3-1 victory in the return clash.

The Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys hosts the first leg of the quarter-final against Dortmund, so Barça will be keen to work up a lead heading into the return clash in Germany. Their record so far in 2025 strongly suggests that they should be capable of doing just that.

Still unbeaten this calendar year, Barça continue to march on, with treble talk growing following their semi-final victory over Atlético Madrid in the Copa del Rey last week. Despite seeing their nine-game winning streak in La Liga end with a 1-1 draw against Real Betis on Saturday, they still extended their advantage at the top courtesy of a shock Valencia win at the Santiago Bernabéu.

However, Barcelona fans won’t need reminding that they’ve not made it past the quarter-final stage in the Champions League since the 2018/19 season when they defeated Manchester United at this stage, before their infamous collapse in the second leg of the semi-final at Anfield.

Fresher in the minds of these players, will be their failure in the last eight last season, when they won 3-2 in Paris and took the lead in the second leg back in Barcelona, only to then collapse against Luis Enrique’s PSG, with Ronald Araújo’s red card proving very costly.

Borussia Dortmund succeeded, where Barça failed, by beating PSG over two legs in the subsequent semi-final to set up a date with Real Madrid at Wembley. They certainly had their moments in the final too, before ultimately succumbing to a 2-0 defeat, and that brilliant run has to serve as inspiration as they look to repeat the feat under Niko Kovač this season.

If anything the odds are even more stacked against them this term. Only 8th in the Bundesliga, Die Schwarzgelben are the rank outsiders of the eight teams remaining in this season’s Champions League, heading into the quarter-final stage.

Their season has largely been defined by defensive failures, while they have lost over half of their away matches in all competitions. That includes a 5-2 defeat at Real Madrid on their most recent visit to Spain back in October, when Los Blancos fired in five goals in the final 30 minutes.

However, surprisingly given their overall record this term and their tendency to depend on their home results in Europe, they have reached this stage largely thanks to impressive away wins in knockout ties against Sporting and Lille.

Barcelona certainly represent a step up in quality on those two teams, but Kovač’s side do at least take a bit of momentum into this tie, having also claimed comfortable victories over Mainz and Freiburg in their last two Bundesliga matches.

Barcelona vs Borussia Dortmund Odds

Barcelona are the red hot favourites at 4/11 to win this match. You can back the Draw at 9/2, while Borussia Dortmund are available at 15/2 to secure a surprise away victory.

For bigger returns on the hosts, you can back Barcelona and Over 3.5 goals at 7/5, or alternatively Barcelona and Under 3.5 goals is priced at 8/5 if you see this being a bit tighter.

Both teams to score is on offer at 8/13, while you can back Draw or Borussia Dortmund at 2/1 in the Double Chance market. The visitors are also available at 12/5 to win either half.

Robert Lewandowski is the 3/1 favourite to score first against his old club, while he’s also available at 8/11 to score anytime. You can also back Raphinha, who has fired in 11 goals in 10 Champions League appearances so far this term, to score anytime at 8/11.

If you’re expecting both players to shine, you can take advantage of a Price Boost to back Barcelona to win, Barcelona 5+ corners, Raphinha to score anytime and Robert Lewandowski to score anytime at 6/1.

From a visiting perspective, Serhou Guirassy may be the main goal threat, with the Guinean international priced at 8/1 to score first and 11/5 to score anytime.

Team News

Aside from Marc-André ter Stegen who continues his recovery from a serious knee injury, Dani Olmo is the most notable absentee for Barcelona here. Young midfielders Marc Casadó and Marc Bernal also remain sidelined.

Flick is expected to make two changes from the side that drew against Betis at the weekend, with Iñigo Martínez and Raphinha set to return.

As for the visitors, they’ve been dealt a major blow on the eve of this tie, with Nico Schlotterbeck ruled out for the rest of the season with a knee injury. Marcel Sabitzer is their other significant injury absentee right now.

Pascal Groß also misses the first leg due to suspension, with Kovač expected to recall Serhou Guirassy to lead the line, after the 29-year-old only featured off the bench in Freiburg.

Barcelona to win & both teams to score @ 7/5

While Flick has made tweaks to the high-line approach that was so noticeable earlier in the season, Barcelona are still a side that likes to take risks and one that always backs itself to outscore the opposition.

With Guirassy, Karim Adeyemi and Jamie Gittens spearheading their attack, Dortmund will certainly ask questions in this game, and they should pose a genuine counter-attacking threat.

Barça are operating at a very high level right now though, with Pedri pulling the strings in midfield and a front three that continues to function well. Even back-up forward Ferran Torres is in great form and they should have enough firepower to win this game. I’m backing Barcelona to win and both teams to score.

Lamine Yamal to assist a goal @ 15/8

Borussia Dortmund have made some defensive alterations since these sides met in the league phase, but it still feels like they are a bit weak at the back, particularly following the Schlotterbeck setback.

The visitors could also be very vulnerable to the immense threat that Lamine Yamal is posing. They are likely to start with 23-year-old Swede Daniel Svensson at left-back, but he has very limited elite level experience having only made five starts so far for Dortmund, since a January move from Danish outfit Nordsjælland.

It’ll be some test for Svensson up against the Barça wonderkid who has registered three more assists than any other player in La Liga this season with 11. He has also set up three goals in 738 minutes of Champions League football, and I’m backing Lamine Yamal to record an assist.

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