Atalanta vs Club Brugge Prediction: La Dea to turn tie around in Bergamo

Club Brugge beat Atalanta 2-1 at the Jay Breydel Stadion in the Belgian capital last Wednesday to take a lead into the second leg of their Uefa Champions League knockout phase play-off tie at the Gewiss Stadium on Tuesday (20:00, TNT Sports 1).

Below are my Atalanta vs Club Brugge predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this decider in Bergamo, Italy.

Team News

Atalanta are missing three defenders - Sead Kolasinac, Odilon Kossounou (both thigh) and Giorgio Scalvini (shoulder) - and forward Gianluca Scamacca (thigh) due to injury, while Daniel Maldini (unspecified) is a doubt after not featuring since the 1-0 defeat to Bologna on February 4.

However, Ademola Lookman, who has missed La Dea's last six matches with a knee injury, is in line to be included in the club's squad on Tuesday.

Gian Piero Gasperini made six changes to his starting XI for Saturday's goalless draw at home to Cagliari in Serie A with goalkeeper Marco Carnesecchi, Lazar Samardzic and Juan Cuadrado among those promoted from the bench.

Carnesecchi should keep his position ahead of Rui Patricio after recovering from injury, but expect the likes of Ederson, Charles De Ketelaere and Marten de Roon to return.

Football Odds

Bjorn Meijder (unspecified) has missed Club Brugge's last six matches and the Dutch defender is expected to be absent again on Tuesday.

Blauw-Zwart head coach Nicky Hayden could name the same starting XI that began last week's first leg at the Jay Breydel Stadion. Raphael Onyedika and Christos Tzolis were the only two to drop out of the side that started Saturday's 2-2 draw at St. Truiden in the Jupiler Pro League, but both came on at the start of the second half and it was Tzolis who popped up in the 90th minute to salvage a point for the visitors.

Gustaf Nilsson came off the bench in Brugge to convert a stoppage-time spot-kick that handed the Belgians the advantage in this tie, and the Swedish forward will hope to reprise his role as a super sub in Bergamo.

Atalanta vs Club Brugge Odds

Atalanta are 8/15 to triumph inside regulation time on Tuesday, implying a 65.2% probability, while Club Brugge are 9/2, or an 18.2% chance, to do the double over the Italian counterparts and advance to the last 16.

The draw, which would be enough to send the visitors through, is priced at 7/2, with both teams to score at 8/11.

Atalanta are 8/11 to win the tie by any means; Club Brugge are 1/1.

Serie A's leading marksman, Mateo Retegui, heads the first (7/2) and anytime (21/20) goalscorer market, with Nilsson shortest-priced for the visitors in both (first - 9/1, anytime - 3-1).

Handicap +1 - Atalanta -1 @ 11/8

A one-goal victory for Atalanta on Tuesday would level the scores on aggregate and send the tie to extra time at the Gewiss Stadium, so if La Dea want to avoid such a scenario, they need to triumph by two clear goals in regulation time against Club Brugge.

That's easier said than done for a team plagued by injuries and one low on confidence having won just one of their last six games across all competitions and none of their last three at home.

However, as well as their opponents have performed in Brugge, they haven't been able to take that form along with them on their travels. Blauw-Zwart did beat Sturm Graz 1-0 in their first away game but have since lost 3-1 to both Milan and Manchester City either side of a 1-1 draw with Celtic.

Reigning Europa League holders Atalanta are 10 points ahead of Milan in Serie A and would probably fancy their chances of overcoming an unsettled City side this season, so the pressure is on the visitors to achieve a positive result against a much superior opponent - on paper - at the third time of asking.

Club Brugge lost by two goals away to Milan and City, and a result like those in Bergamo on Tuesday would see them knocked out of European competition this season.

Atalanta have already enjoyed some big wins in Europe this term with all four league phase victories by at least two goals (one by three and two by five).

Meanwhile, in Serie A, La Dea have won nine games by a margin of at least two goals, most recently thrashing Hellas Verona 5-0 on February 8.

Clearly, they are a team that can score at will, and even without stars like Lookman, they have enough firepower to win the tie inside 90 minutes - plus stoppage time - on Tuesday.

Club Brugge have done remarkably well to make it this far in the competition and to stand a great chance of progression in Bergamo, but ultimately, I think this is the end of the line for the Belgians, who I'm tipping to lose by a couple of goals - at least - in Bergamo.

Player to Score Two or More Goals - Mateo Retegui (ATA) @ 11/2

Retegui has been a revelation since swapping Genoa for Bergamo last summer, netting 20 goals in 23 Serie A appearances - 13 more than he managed in six fewer outings last season.

The 25-year-old has enjoyed a solid European campaign with Atalanta so far, too, notching three times in eight league phase matches, but he blanked last time out in Brugge and will be desperate to prove his worth on Tuesday.

Two of his three Champions League goals this term came in a 6-1 thrashing of Young Boys in Bern on November 26, one of six games this season in which he has scored two or more goals.

Retegui's most recent multiple-goal haul was in this month's 5-0 annihilation at Hellas Verona, where he scored four times.

With Lookman likely only available for a late cameo - at best - and La Dea desperate for a goal - or two, or three - Retegui will take on a lot of the goalscoring burden in Bergamo, and I think he will relish it.

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