Aston Villa vs PSG Prediction: Morgan spice to leave Nuno nursing hangover

Aston Villa shocked the Parc des Princes last week as Morgan Rogers put the Premier League club ahead in the first leg of their Uefa Champions League quarter-final tie with Paris Saint-Germain. However, the French side quickly hit back through Desire Doue, and in the second half, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Nuno Mendes also got on the scoresheet for the hosts, leaving the Villans with a mini mountain to climb in Tuesday's second leg at Villa Park (20:00, Amazon Prime Video).

Below are my Aston Villa vs PSG predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this return fixture in Birmingham.

Team News

Aston Villa head coach Unai Emery made four changes to his starting XI for Saturday's 3-0 win at Southampton. Ian Maatsen, Tyrone Mings, Amadou Onana and Marco Asensio were all promoted from the substitutes bench in Paris, with Lucas Digne, Pau Torres, Boubacar Kamara and John McGinn making way for the quartet.

Emery could revert to the side that started against PSG last Wednesday. However, leading goalscorer Ollie Watkins, who has begun four of the Villans' last five games in the dugout, will hope his weekend goal at St Mary's has put him in the frame for a start in the French capital.

Football Odds

Leon Bailey (knock) hasn't featured for Villa since March 12, and his participation on Tuesday is doubtful.

Neither Andres Garcia nor Donyell Malen were added to the club's Champions League squad in January, so the mid-season signings will be watching from the stands at Villa Park.

PSG were afforded the weekend off by Ligue 1, and with no new injuries reported in training, the runaway French champions are at full strength heading into Tuesday's second leg at Villa Park.

Luis Enrique is also boosted by the return of skipper Marquinhos from suspension. The Brazilian centre-back was forced to watch last Wednesday's first leg from the stands, but he should be restored to the starting XI in Birmingham in place of compatriot Lucas Beraldo.

Otherwise, PSG should look the same again, with Bradley Barcola, Warren Zaire-Emery, Goncalo Ramos and Lee Kang-in providing the threat from the bench.

Aston Villa vs PSG Odds

Villa are 11/5 to claim victory on home soil, implying a 31.3% probability, while PSG are 11/10, or a 47.6% chance, to do the double over the Villans. The draw, which would be enough to send the Parisians into the semi-finals, is priced at 14/5, and a repeat of BTTS - Yes is available at 4/7.

Ousmane Dembele, who has scored seven of his 32 goals this season for PSG in the Champions League, is 7/5 favourite in the anytime goalscorer market, followed by Ramos (13/8), Watkins (7/4) and Barcola (2/1).

First Half Total Goals 2-Way - Over 1.5 @ 6/4

The first goal of the game in last Wednesday's first leg didn't arrive until the 35th minute, but just four minutes after Rogers had put the visitors in front, Doue equalised for Enrique's side.

It was the fifth time this season that at least two goals had been scored in the first half of a PSG Champions League match, and two of those previous four occasions were in their knockout phase play-off tie against Stade Brestois.

Last Wednesday was also the fifth time it has happened in a European game involving Villa this season.

Tuesday's hosts will be looking to use the crowd behind them and make a fast start in this second leg, similar to how they did in their final group match against Celtic at Villa Park on January 29. The Villans were 2-0 up in the first five minutes of that match, only for Celtic to score twice in the final 10 minutes of the first half, although Emery's side went on to win 4-2.

PSG are a much better team than Celtic, so I'm not expecting them to crumble in the opening stages like the Hoops, but an early Villa goal wouldn't surprise me.

Likewise, the visitors could also get on the scoresheet if the hosts pile the pressure early on and leave space at the back.

Neither side are exactly rock solid at the back, and given Villa need to win by two goals just to take the tie into extra time, I think we could see plenty of goals at Villa Park on Tuesday, so I'm taking over 1.5 in the first half at 6/4.

Player to Receive a Card - Nuno Mendes (PSG) @ 4/1

A couple of strong performances up against Liverpool star Mohamed Salah, as well as last week's fine finish against Villa, have raised Mendes' reputation in England immeasurably. Pundits and supporters alike are now starting to champion the Portugal international as Europe's best left-back, and on current form, they may be right.

Still, he could be in for a tough night on Wednesday.

The pressure is all on PSG as they are huge favourites to progress in this tie, while Villa will be giving their all to shock the Parisians in Birmingham.

I'm expecting Emery's side to press high and with intensity at Villa Park, led by the tireless McGinn and Rogers. Both are relentless workers who are also difficult to get the ball back from when in possession.

McGinn is fouled, on average, 1.1 times per 90 minutes in this season's Champions League (2.7 p/90 in Premier League), while Rogers' average is 1.1 p/90 in Europe (1.6 p/90 in Premier League).

Both players were fouled twice in Paris last week, and one of the unfair challenges on Rogers was made by Mendes, who, in turn, was fouled twice by the 22-year-old.

McGinn and Rogers both do the majority of the work on the right-hand side of Villa's attack, and they may well target Mendes on Tuesday.

The Portuguese full-back has been booked six times this season, and half of those yellows have been awarded to him in Europe.

He was carded at home to PSV Eindoven and Manchester City and away at Bayern Munich in the league phase, while his two yellows this calendar year have been in big domestic games against Olympique Marseille and AS Monaco.

Mendes may be forced to take alternative action to deal with the threat of Rogers and McGinn at Villa Park, so 4/1 for him to receive a card looks like a nice price.

Offers

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