AC Milan vs Feyenoord Prediction: Old boy can haunt Dutch side in UCL

AC Milan have work to do in the second leg of their Uefa Champions League play-off against Feyenoord (17:45, TNT Sports 3), as the Dutch side won the first leg 1-0 at De Kuip. It means Sergio Conceicao’s outfit need to overturn this deficit if they are to progress to the round of 16. 

Milan have only progressed once in the last six Champions League ties in which they have lost the first leg, against Manchester United in the semi-final of the 2007 edition, that they went on to win. But their home form is strong, and below you can find my AC Milan vs Feyenoord predictions. 

Team News

Ahead of the first leg, Conceicao was fairly blunt when it came to the injury issues his side has. "We don't have many options: there are 15 outfield players available, between injuries and those not in the Champions League squad, plus the youngsters. The coaches have to find solutions. It's important, and we're here because of our own fault - we could already be in the round of 16. We want to take responsibility for this." 

Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Emerson Royal and Alessandro Florenzi are the three major absentees at the moment, while Milan’s attack looks very strong, so perhaps the manager was overestimating the extent of the issues his squad has. Santiago Gimenez should lead the line again against his former side, while Christian Pulisic, Rafael Leao and Joao Felix make up an exciting attacking quartet.

Kyle Walker should start again at right-back, with Fikayo Tomori still trying to get his place back at the heart of the defence. He came on after 30 minutes of the first leg but is battling with Malick Thiaw and Strahinja Pavlovic for a starting spot.

Feyenoord are in the middle of an injury crisis right now, and that was only made worse when centre-forward Ayase Ueda suffered a hamstring issue in the first leg. He is now likely to miss this game while Gernot Trauner, Justin Bijlow and Jordan Lotomba are all ruled out for at least another month.

Joining them on the sidelines are Calvin Stengs, Chris-Kevin Nadje and Ramiz Zerrouki as Brian Priske looks to cope without a few key players. On loan Wolves left-back Hugo Bueno could be handed a start, while former Brighton man Jakub Moder has played a key role since his permanent move from England in January.

AC Milan vs Feyenoord Odds

AC Milan are priced up at 4/9 to win, giving them an implied win probability of 69% heading into this game. A draw which would see the away side through after 90 minutes can be backed at 4/1, while an away win is 6/1. 

Under 2.5 goals is 5/4 having come in during the first leg and at the weekend for Milan, while BTTS can be backed at 4/5. Gimenez is the favourite to score for Milan against the club he left in January, and is priced at 4/1 to open the scoring. 

AC Milan to win to nil @ 11/8

I will back the home side to come out on top, and secure a clean sheet in 90 minutes. The first leg was a tight affair which Milan should have won by all accounts. The hosts only had two shots on target in comparison to Milan’s six, while the away side also had more possession and created slightly more xG over the 90 minutes. 

On home soil, they should be able to turn this tie around, but I think the value lies in backing them to win to nil, meaning even a 1-0 success would result in a winning selection. The Dutch outfit are going to set up extremely defensively here and I’m not sure it will pay off against a vibrant Milan attack. This should be another close encounter, but I think Milan will win to nil and secure their place in the last 16. 

Santiago Gimenez to score @ 6/5

It feels like destiny doesn't it? Gimenez swapped his Feyenoord shirt for an AC Milan one earlier this month as the Dutch club accepted an offer of £26.5m for his services. It’s a big price for Milan to splash out, but the 23-year-old Mexican has done well so far, scoring two goals in two Serie A appearances. 

He hit 65 goals in 105 appearances for Feyenoord, including five in five in the UCL this season for the Dutch outfit. Surely it’s only a matter of time before he gets off the mark in Europe for Milan, and this is the perfect opportunity, against the team that only waved him farewell on February 3. The stats are in our favour here, and so is the narrative. Gimenez should make headlines either way on Tuesday night. 

Offers

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