Cerro Porteno vs Colo-Colo Prediction: Group A to be decided by CONMEBOL rankings?

It’s still all to play for in Group A of the Copa Libertadores as Cerro Porteno and Colo-Colo meet at the Estadio Ueno La Nueva Olla on Thursday morning (01:30). With 11 points to their name, only Fluminese have booked their place in the last-16 from this group, with the other three teams all still in contention to qualify.

It means it all comes down to this, and there are already unique circumstances heading into this clash. Cerro Porteno are currently in second place, but by the narrowest of margins. The Paraguayan outfit are level with Colo-Colo on five points apiece, but they also both also have an identical goal difference, the same number of goals scored overall and the same number of goals scored in away games, which are the first three deciders after points in the Copa Libertadores group stage.

Heading into this one then, the only thing keeping them above the side from Chile is their CONMEBOL ranking - they are currently 19th in those standings, with Colo-Colo seven places lower in 26th. So you can see how close this game is, and if it ends in a draw, Cerro Porteno could progress in a bizarre manner. Below you can find my Cerro Porteno vs Colo-Colo prediction.

Team News

Cerro Porteno are currently without Lucas Quintana and Bruno Valdez, their central defensive duo who have both unfortunately suffered ACL injuries. Meanwhile, Horge Morel and Wilder Viera Caballero are both doubtful for this one having been taken off just after half-time at the weekend. 

Arturo Vidal (yep that one), and Damian Pizarro are both out for Colo-Colo having been sent off against Alianza Lima in their last Copa Libertadores tie. Cesar Fuentes is out for the long-term with a cruciate ligament tear while Leonardo Gil is expected to start in midfield. 

Cerro Porteno vs Colo-Colo Match Odds

Cerro Porteno are priced at 21/20 to win this game, giving them an implied win probability of 48%. A draw can be backed at 21/10, while an away win is available at 12/5. BTTS is 1/1 while over 2.5 goals is 11/8. 

Draw @ 21/10

I don’t think there is anything to choose between these two sides at all, and neither of them are in flying form in this particular competition. The home side went down to 10 men in their 2-1 defeat to Fluminese two weeks ago, but they’ve now failed to win in each of their last three outings in this competition. 

Both of these teams have only won one game apiece in this group stage, and they aren’t scoring loads of goals. Colo-Colo ran out 1-0 winners in the reverse fixture thanks to a 94th-minute winner, but I feel this will be a low-scoring encounter as Cerro Porteno are yet to concede at home in this competition. I can’t separate these two teams, so the value lies in a draw in my eyes, which would be enough to send the hosts through as long as Fluminese don’t lose at home to bottom club Alianza Lima. 

Correct score 0-0 @ 7/1

In my opinion, 7/1 feels like a huge price for this correct scoreline. The last time these two met, it was a drab affair until that late winner. This time around, the hosts know that a point will almost certainly be enough to see them into the last-16. Colo-Colo have only scored two goals on their travels so far, and one of those came from the influential, but now suspended, Vidal. 

I think both sides will feel the pressure here and we will see an incredibly cagey encounter. With the Paraguayan team rock-solid on home soil from a defensive point of view, they might just back themselves to keep a clean sheet to qualify for the knockout stages. 

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