Central Coast Mariners vs Western United Prediction: Victory for the visitors in Gosford

Reigning Premiership and Grand Final champions Central Coast Mariners, who added a first-ever AFC Cup to their cabinet in 2024/25 to complete a historic treble, are having an awful time of it this season. The Gosford club lost 2-0 to Kawasaki on February 18 to finish second bottom of their AFC Champions League group with just one point from seven games, and four days later, they were thrashed 4-0 at home by Western Sydney Wanderers to extend their winless run in the Australian A-League Men's to five matches.

On Friday (08:35, TNT Sports 4), Mark Jackson's side host Western United at Industree Group Stadium, looking to cut the eight-point gap on their visitors who are, at the time of writing, third and plotting a top-two finish. Below are my Central Coast Mariners vs Western United predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Central Coast Mariners captain Trent Sainsbury is suspended for the hosts after picking up his fifth booking of the campaign in last weekend's hammering against the Wanderers.

Nico Duarte is back in the squad after a lengthy injury absence, but Brad Tapp (knee) remains in the Mariners' treatment room.

Football Odds

Young Western United full-back Charbel Shamoon missed last Sunday's 3-0 win over Adelaide United with a knock to his ankle but the 21-year-old has sufficiently recovered to be named in John Aloisi's squad for the trip to Gosford.

Sebastian Pasquali, who was also absent from last weekend's victory against the Reds, is back in the mix again, too.

James Donachie (calf) misses out again through injury, however.

Central Coast Mariners vs Wellington Phoenix Odds

Central Coast Mariners are unbeaten in their last six home games against Western United in the ALM but haven't tasted success on home soil since beating a 10-man Sydney FC side 2-1 on December 8 which remains their only league victory at Industree Group Stadium this season.

Friday's hosts are 12/5 to win this game, implying a 29.4% probability, while the visitors are 9/10, or a 52.6% chance, to make it back-to-back away victories.

The draw is priced at 5/2, both teams to score at 8/15, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/7.

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 1.5 - Western United & Over 1.5 Goals @ 5/4

After finishing second bottom in 23/24, just four points ahead of wooden spooners Perth Glory, Aloisi has really turned things around in Tarneit this season. Western United have already picked up three more points than they did in the entirety of the previous campaign, despite having eight games left to play.

A top-two finish is now firmly in their sights with second-place Adelaide United only two points ahead, albeit the Reds have a game in hand on the Green and Blacks.

United have only won one of their last four games but that was last weekend and their only defeat in that run was against league leaders Auckland (0-2).

Aloisi's side have lost just twice on their travels this season and have won five of their last seven away games, a worrying statistic for Fridays' hosts at Industree Group Stadium who have failed to win their last five matches there, losing three of them.

CCM did take a point from their trip to Tarneit last month, drawing 2-2 with Western United, but they're still on a five-match winless run despite playing a couple of poor sides in Perth Glory and Wellington Phoenix.

Western United are just a much better side than the Mariners this season and they've scored at least twice in five of their last six games, winning half (three) of them; Jackson's side have failed to score multiple goals in seven of their ALM matches at home in 2024/25 and as I expect the visitors to net a couple on Friday, I don't see CCM taking any points from this contest.

Price Boosts - Western United to Win, Hiroshi Ibusuki (WU) to Score & Central Coast Mariners 20+ Booking Pts @ 4/1 5/1

I've already backed United for the win in my first tip, so let's head straight to the second selection of this price boost, which requires Japanese striker Hiroshi Ibusuki to get on the scoresheet for the visitors.

The 34-year-old joined in the off-season from Adelaide United, whom he struck 15 times for in the 23/24 ALM, and he's already on eight goals for the current campaign in 18 appearances, the latest of which came last weekend against his former side.

That strike ended a four-match run without one and pulled him to within one of his striker partner, 23-year-old Noah Botic, who opened the scoring against the Reds.

Ibusuki has a poor goalscoring record against the Mariners, netting his only goal in eight appearances against them in his first back in 21/22.

However, the 6ft5in striker probably hasn't played a poorer CCM side than this and Friday is a great opportunity to double his career goal tally against them, particularly as he is United's designated penalty kick taker, converting his latest one against Adelaide.

We also need the Mariners to pick up at least 20 booking points to land this price boost.

Jackson's side avoided a booking in January's reverse fixture but have been shown 37 yellow cards in the ALM this season, averaging 2.1 per game. With Betfred, a yellow amounts to 10 booking points, so CCM are averaging over 20 booking points per game.

Offers

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