Central Coast Mariners vs Auckland Prediction: Goals could be scarce in Gosford

The first half of the calendar year was a spectacular one for Central Coast Mariners as they completed a historic treble, but since returning to action for the new season in August, it's been nothing short of disastrous for the Gosford club as they've won just two of their 15 games across all competitions. They sit 10th in the Australian A-League Men's ahead of Saturday's clash at Industree Group Stadium (06:00, TNT Sports 3) against newbies Auckland, who will finish top of the tree in 2024 if they beat the Mariners, or Melbourne Victory fail to overcome Sydney FC later in the day.

Read on for my Central Coast Mariners vs Auckland prediction, complete with team news and match odds.

Team News

Left-back Lucas Mauragis is back available for Central Coast Mariners after missing Monday's 1-1 draw at Macarthur. The 23-year-old could reclaim his starting spot from Noah Smith, who made his season bow against the Bulls and lasted 81 minutes before being substituted.

Lucas Scicluna and Arthur De Lima were on the bench at Campbelltown Stadium but the teenagers have dropped out of the squad this time around.

Brad Tapp, Ryan Edmondson, Nicholas Duarte and Miguel Di Pizio remain injured for Mark Jackson's side.

Football Odds

Former Mariner Daniel Hall, who left for Auckland in the off-season, has missed the Black Knights' last two games and his absence will be extended to a third on Saturday. Like Hall, Cameron Howieson missed his side's 2-2 draw at Melbourne City and 4-0 thrashing at the hands of Western United and will miss a third consecutive match this weekend.

Central Coast Mariners vs Auckland Odds

Central Coast Mariners are 15/8 to triumph in Gosford for just the second time this season, giving Saturday's hosts an implied win probability of 34.8%, while Auckland are 5/4, or a 44.4% chance, to return to winning ways after two games without a victory.

The draw is priced at 11/5, both teams to score at 4/6, and over 2.5 total goals at 10/11.

Total Goals - Under 2.5 @ 4/5

Auckland's last three matches have seen at least three goals scored, with their most recent two seeing exactly four; however, Steve Corica's side are still joint top of the 'under 2.5 goals' table as their first five ALM contests finished with two or fewer strikes, meaning under 2.5 total goals has landed in 62 per cent of their games.

The Mariners, meanwhile, have seen two of their first three matches this month end with at least three goals scored, yet they also feature highly in the under 2.5 table as 50 per cent (half) of their league fixtures have finished with two or fewer strikes, including their latest contest, a 1-1 draw at Macarthur earlier in the week.

Heading into the weekend, only Melbourne Victory (five) had conceded fewer goals than Auckland (seven), and six of those strikes have come in the second half of December.

The Auckland defence is likely to be feeling bruised after the last couple of games but up against, statistically, the worst attacking force in the division - the Mariners have scored just six times in their first eight ALM matches this season - they should be confident of getting back to their resolute best on Saturday while Jackson's side have improved themselves defensively, only conceding multiple goals once in their last four league games.

Anytime Goalscorer - Alou Kuol (CCM) @ 2/1

Alou Kuol was one of the breakout stars of the 2020/21 ALM campaign, scoring seven times in 26 appearances for the Mariners to secure an overseas move to German side Stuttgart, where things didn't work out for the Sudan-born striker.

The Australia youth international returned home at the start of last season and struck nine times across all competitions to help the Mariners secure a historic treble. That was a solid return considering he was sharing centre-forward duties with former Leeds United man Ryan Edmondson, who only managed seven goals himself.

Both attackers have struggled this season, however, with Edmondson yet to get off the mark and Kuol netting just twice - and both of his goals came in the same game as his brace against Sydney FC helped CCM to a 2-1 win over the Sky Blues on December 8.

That means Kuol has failed to score in seven of his eight ALM appearances this term, hardly an encouraging statistic heading into a contest against one of the best defences in the division.

However, that brace was struck earlier this month so the 23-year-old should still have those two strikes on his mind as he prepares to down the Black Knights on Saturday.

Besides, Auckland's vulnerabilities have been there for all to see this month, with one goal conceded against Wellington Phoenix followed by two against Melbourne City and four against Western United.

With Edmondson - among others - out injured, Kuol should see plenty of game time this weekend, and he's lasted the course of the last two matches, so he should have ample opportunity to make his mark on Saturday's contest. At 2/1, I think he's worth a dabble.

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