Brisbane Roar vs Macarthur Prediction: Bulls to claim vital victory in top-six push

Brisbane Roar suffered their 13th defeat of the 2024/25 Australia A-League Men's season last Sunday, going down 2-0 at home to leaders Auckland. Ruben Zadkovich's side will remain at Suncorp Stadium for their next game, which arrives on Friday (09:35, TNT Sports 2) against play-off chasers Macarthur, who came from 3-1 down to draw 3-3 with Newcastle Jets at Campbelltown Stadium last week.

Below are my Brisbane Roar vs Macarthur predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Brisbane Roar are boosted by the return of Keegan Jelacic, who missed last weekend's defeat through suspension.

It's one in, one out, though, as Jack Hingert serves a ban for picking up his fifth yellow card of the campaign against Auckland.

Football Odds

Corey Brown (unspecified) and Ben Warland (knee) are still out injured for the hosts, who could consider handing a start to Antonee Burke-Gilroy. The 27-year-old hasn't begun the Roar's last two matches, but 17 of his first 18 appearances this season were starts, and he was brought on in the second half against Perth Glory and Auckland.

Liam Rose was taken off in the 32nd minute of Macarthur's thriller with the Jets last week, but the midfielder has been included in Mile Sterjovski's extended squad for their trip to Brisbane.

Daniel De Silva, Filip Kurto and Dean Bosnjak are all back in the fold, with first-choice goalkeeper Kurto expected to return between the sticks in place of 20-year-old Alexander Robinson, who made his A-League debut against Newcastle.

However, midfielder Peter Makrillos, who came on in the 74th minute of that draw, misses out on this week's squad.

Brisbane Roar vs Macarthur Odds

Brisbane have only won twice this season and are yet to taste success on home soil, yet Zadkovich's side are 6/5 favourites on Friday, implying a win probability of 45.5%. Only three clubs - Western United (23), Auckland and Melbourne City (both 21) - have picked up more points on their travels this season than Macarthur, yet the Bulls are 15/8, or a 34.8% chance, to claim all three points at Suncorp.

November's reverse fixture at Campbelltown Stadium saw the teams play out a 4-4 thriller; another draw between the two can be backed at 9/4, and a repeat of that crazy scoreline is priced at a whopping 125/1.

Eight of the last nine ALM meetings between these sides have seen both teams score, and BTTS - Yes is offered at 8/15 this week.

Brisbane-born Harrison Sawyer came off the bench against the Jets last week to score his first A-League goals and the Macarthur striker heads the anytime goalscorer market on Friday at 9/5, with the Roar's Henry Hore next up in the running at 15/8.

Match Result - Macarthur @ 15/8

This price looks generous to me. Macarthur are four points behind sixth-place Adelaide United, and with just four games left to play, including Friday's match at Suncorp, the Bulls need to get back to winning ways after the disappointment of last week's draw at home to the Jets.

The three clubs directly above Macarthur all have a game in hand on Sterjovski's side, so really, they need to win their last four games to stand a realistic chance of finishing in the top six and making the finals.

Their easiest assignment of the four is in Brisbane, where the Roar are yet to taste success this season. Zadkovich has presided over one draw and seven defeats at Suncorp, where his side have failed to score in four of their last six contests.

All the Roar can do now is try and avoid the dreaded wooden spoon; bottom club Perth Glory are currently bottom but are also on 11 points, albeit they have played two matches more than Brisbane.

To their credit, the Roar did rescue a point in a 4-4 draw against Macarthur last November. They actually took a 2-0 lead at Campbelltown Stadium and were also 3-2 ahead in the second half, but ended up requiring a stoppage-time equaliser from Tomislav Uskok to level things up.

Macarthur have also seen several key players depart since that stalemate in South Western Sydney, with Valere Germain, Jed Drew, Ariath Piol and Dino Arslanagic, all of whom featured against the Roar in the reverse fixture, now at clubs on a different continent.

The Bulls struggled to cope in the wake of those exits, enduring a five-game run without a win from the start of February to mid-March, but a 5-4 victory at Adelaide United brought that to an end, and while they failed to follow that up with three points last week, that's now four points claimed from a possible six.

Friday's visitors have everything to play for and while Brisbane will want to avoid finishing bottom, I don't think their motivations are as strong as their opponents, and 18 points between the sides in the table highlights the difference in level this season.

I'm all over Macarthur to win at 15/8 here.

Away Team Total Goals - Macarthur Over 2.5 Goals @ 9/2

Macarthur have scored eight goals across their last two outings, hitting five against Adelaide before netting three times at home to the Jets.

Last Friday was the seventh time this season that the Bulls had scored three or more goals in a game, and four have been away from home post-Christmas. They beat Perth Glory 3-0 at HBF Park on December 27 and followed up that victory with wins at Western Sydney Wanderers (2-3) and the Jets (1-3) at the start of this calendar year.

The Roar haven't conceded more than twice in their last four matches, last shipping three in a 3-1 defeat at the Jets on February 21, but they have been breached at least three times in 35% (seven) of their 20 league contests this season, including their November 30 draw against Macarthur.

I think 9/2 for over 2.5 away team goals is generous for a free-scoring side pushing for promotion against one of the two worst clubs in the league.

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