Brisbane Roar vs Adelaide United Prediction: End-of-season goal bonanza in Brisbane?

Brisbane Roar head into the final game of their 2023/24 Australian A-League Men's season knowing that eighth, the position they currently occupy, is as good as it will get for them, with the top six out of bounds and even seventh-placed Western Sydney Wanderers too far in front.

Like Friday's hosts at Suncorp Stadium, Adelaide United will not be at the finals, but they still have a game in hand on account of their postponed fixture with Central Coast Mariners last week, and can still finish seventh if WSW lost to Melbourne Victory on Saturday. Read below for my Brisbane Roar vs Adelaide United predictions and all the latest team news and match odds for this 10:45 kick-off, which is live in the UK on TNT Sports 3.

Team News

Scott Neville has featured just once for the Roar this calendar year and won't return from his knee injury until next season.

Kato Jo has been out injured for the past six matches and looks likely to miss out again, while there are doubts over the availability of Marco Rojas, who hasn't played since April 5 and may well have played his last game for the club with his short-term deal expiring soon.

19-year-old striker Thomas Waddingham, recently linked with a move to Tottenham Hotspur and other major European sides, could come into the starting XI as he looks to add to his six league goals this term.

A player certain to be found strutting his stuff in Europe later this year is Nestory Irankunda, who will join Bayern Munich from Adelaide United in the summer. The 18-year-old has said his goodbyes at Coopers Stadium but could be afforded one last game to bid the league as a whole farewell on Friday.

Fellow teenager, Guiseppe Bovalina (19), won't be saying his farewells as he is due to line up immediately with his new MLS side, Vancouver Whitecaps, whom he joined on Tuesday.

Javi Lopez could come into the side for Bovalina, and it could be a final appearance for the 38-year-old who has yet to sign on for a fifth season in Adelaide.

Match Odds

Brisbane Roar are 11/10 to do the double over Adelaide United, having beaten them 2-0 in December's reverse fixture courtesy of a goal apiece from Jez Lofthouse and Jay O'Shea. That gives the hosts an implied win probability of 47.6%, while the visitors are 13/8, or a 38.1% chance, to leapfrog their opponents in the table.

The draw can be backed at 3/1, both teams to score at 1/3 and over 3.5 goals at 4/5.

Over 4.5 goals @ 2/1

The Australian A-League Men's is one of the top elite divisions for goals scored, and with this being an end-of-season game between two sides who cannot qualify for the finals, I think we could be in for some goals on Friday.

Goals have certainly followed Adelaide United this season, with only league whipping boys Perth Glory (4.12) averaging more goals per game than the Reds (3.84). Brisbane Roar aren't too far behind in joint-third - alongside Macarthur FC and Western United - on 3.46 per game.

We need higher than the average this week, though, with at least five goals needed to be scored. Confidence can be gleaned from the fact that only Perth Glory (11) have been involved in more games with over 4.5 goals than Adelaide United (nine) this term, with three of their last four ending that way (3-3 v Western United, 4-2 v Perth Glory, 4-1 v Western United).

Brisbane, meanwhile, have seen at least five goals in six of their 26 league matches, including two of their last three at Suncorp Stadium. The Roar beat both Melbourne sides - Victory and City - 3-2 and 5-1, respectively, and their 2-2 draw with Western United between those results was only one goal shy of five.

Both teams to score in first half - Yes @ 7/4

I'm expecting plenty of goals in this fixture, which makes an eventful first half more likely, and thus I'm happy to back both teams to find the net in the opening 45 minutes.

28% (7/25) of Adelaide United's games this season have seen both teams score in the first half and, once again, only Perth Glory (42%, 11/26) have witnessed that more times.

Brisbane Roar are only one off their next opponents in this regard at six in 26 games (23%), with two of those matches coming in their last three at home (1-2 v Macarthur, 3-2 v Melbourne Victory).

Adelaide United's last two on their travels, meanwhile, have seen this selection land (3-3 v Western United, 4-2 v Perth Glory), and we could see another action-packed first half on Friday.

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