Brighton vs Aston Villa Prediction: Seagulls to bounce back from penalty pain

Brighton & Hove Albion and Aston Villa experienced contrasting emotions in the FA Cup quarter-finals last weekend. The Seagulls lost on penalties to Nottingham Forest on Saturday, while the Villans beat Preston North End 3-0 the following day.

Both are back in Premier League action in midweek as they face off at the Amex Stadium on Wednesday (19:30), and you can build up to the game by checking out my Brighton vs Aston Villa predictions below, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Brighton could be without as many as 10 players for Wednesday's visit of Villa.

Igor Julio, James Milner (both hamstring), Ferdi Kadioglu (toe), Tariq Lamptey, Joel Veltman (both ankle), Jason Steele (shoulder), Mats Wieffer and Solly March (both unspecified) all missed last weekend's cup tie against Forest, and only Veltman appears to have much of a chance of playing in midweek.

Adam Webster (hamstring) and Georginio Rutter (ankle) were both substituted due to injury on Saturday and look likely to have a watching brief.

Football Odds

Lewis Dunk returned from his rib injury to replace Webster against Forest, and the Brighton captain could make his first start since February 8 on Wednesday.

Joao Pedro and Diego Gomez were both brought on as second-half substitutes at the weekend following their international exertions in South America, so both should be restored to the starting XI here.

Simon Adingra and Brajan Gruda are also options to come into Fabian Hurzeler's line-up.

Aston Villa winger Leon Bailey is unlikely to feature on Wednesday, according to Unai Emery. The Jamaica international missed his side's Sunday cup success at Deepdale with a knock, and his participation against Brighton is doubtful.

Emery said: “Leon Bailey, still, with a hard kick, and I think he is not going to train this [Tuesday] afternoon, and for tomorrow, difficult to play the match.”

However, Villa's head coach was more positive on Ross Barkley, who hasn't featured since January 10 due to a knee injury. Emery added: "At the beginning, Barkley, he was training with the group yesterday.

“Other players, progressively, they were coming back and hopefully - after the match we played and the training we will do this afternoon - will be available, everybody.”

Amadou Onana came off the bench against PNE to make his first appearance since February 2, and the Belgian midfielder will be looking for more minutes at the Amex Stadium, although it may be too soon for his first start since January 18.

John McGinn and Ollie Watkins, who both came off the bench on Sunday, are likely to be restored to the starting XI on Wednesday.

Brighton vs Aston Villa Odds

Brighton lost 7-0 at Nottingham Forest on February 1 before embarking on a five-game unbeaten run in the Premier League that saw them win the first four. The Seagulls are 11/10, or a 47.6% chance, to make it five victories from six on Wednesday against Villa, who are 23/10 (30.3%) to triumph for a sixth successive match in all competitions and make it back-to-back Premier League wins.

The draw is priced at 11/4, both teams to score - which landed in December's reverse fixture, a 2-2 draw at Villa Park - at 8/15, and a repeat of that scoreline at 10/1.

Watkins has scored seven goals in eight appearances against Brighton, netting against the South Coast club earlier in the season, and he is 8/5 favourite in the anytime goalscorer market. Brighton forward Joao Pedro, who scored the only goal of the game in the corresponding fixture last season, is first up in the market for the hosts at 13/8.

Match Result & Both Teams To Score - Brighton & Yes @ 23/10

Just two points separate the sides in the Premier League table, with Brighton two places ahead of Villa, who are fighting on three fronts with a Champions League quarter-final tie against Paris Saint-Germain and a final-four FA Cup match against Crystal Palace to come later this month.

Both clubs earned a point in December's meeting at Villa Park, but Brighton were victorious when the Villans last visited the Amex last May, and the Seagulls are in better league form.

Villa supporters will, quite rightly, be overjoyed with their five-game win streak heading into Wednesday's contest, but as a neutral, some perspective should be applied.

Two of those five victories came against second-tier sides in the FA Cup, and two were in the Champions League against Club Brugge, who were underdogs heading into their two-legged last-16 tie.

A win at Brentford last time out in the Premier League was impressive, but prior to that, Emery's side were thrashed 4-1 at Crystal Palace, and only six clubs have picked up fewer points on their travels than the Villans (17) in 2024/25.

Brighton, meanwhile, are joint-seventh in the Premier League 'home' table, having played a game fewer than Brentford, who have also won 24 points at their own stadium.

Wednesday's hosts have claimed maximum points in their last three league games at the Amex, beating Chelsea 3-0 on Valentine's Day before 2-1 wins against AFC Bournemouth and Fulham.

Villa have scored in their last five league matches and 10 of their last 11 but have emerged victorious just twice in their previous eight competition outings.

Brighton don't keep too many clean sheets, recording just three shutouts in their last 11 league contests, so I can certainly see the visitors troubling their back line in midweek.

However, Villa have two other competitions to contend with, while Brighton will be putting their all into the Premier League from now until the end of the season, so I'm backing the Seagulls to bounce back from their weekend disappointment and get back to winning ways.

Price Boosts - Both Teams To Score, Each Team Over 3.5 Corners & Each Team Over 19.5 Booking Points @ 4/1 5/1

Two of these three selections landed in December's reverse fixture, and one was very close.

Both teams scored twice at Villa Park, while Villa were awarded 20 booking points for two yellow cards, and three cautions given to Brighton resulted in 30 booking points for the Seagulls.

There were 15 corners won in the game but Villa took 80% (12) of them, meaning Brighton (three) went just under the 3.5 line.

Villa have actually taken the fourth-most corners in the Premier League this season, with their total of 189 averaging out at 6.5 per game. Brighton (143) are down in 11th in the corners won table, but 143 across the campaign still averages out at 4.9 per game, and in 2023/24, they took seven at the Amex against the Villans.

I've already backed both teams to score in my first pick, but if you need any more convincing, only Fulham (72%) have been involved in a higher proportion of games that have seen BTTS - Yes land this season than Villa and Brighton (both 69%).

The Seagulls, meanwhile, have picked up 61 yellow cards in this season's competition (2.1 p/g), and Villa have been shown 56 (1.9 p/g).

Nine of the last 10 competitive meetings between Brighton and Villa have seen both teams receive over 19.5 booking points, so there's usually some needle between the two sides.

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