Brighton & Hove Albion vs Southampton Bet Builder Tips: Joao Pedro to pounce again

There's a Premier League south coast 'derby' taking place at the Amex Stadium on Friday evening (20:00, Sky Sports Main Event) as Brighton & Hove Albion and Southampton go head-to-head. The Seagulls have won back-to-back games to sit fifth in the table heading into this clash, and Fabian Hurzeler's side can go second with a win or a goalscoring draw against the Saints, whose head coach Russell Martin will be desperate for his side to snap out of a two-match losing streak.

Below you can find my Brighton & Hove Albion vs Southampton Bet Builder tips as I draw up a four-legged Bet Builder with odds of 111/1.

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Brighton & Hove Albion vs Southampton Odds

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Player cards - Pervis Estupinan (BHA) carded

Brighton left-back Pervis Estupinan enjoyed a successful first season on the south coast after joining from Spanish side Villarreal in the summer of 2022, scoring once and registering five assists in 35 Premier League appearances as the Seagulls finished sixth to clinch qualification to the Uefa Europa League group stage.

The 2023/24 campaign wasn't as enjoyable for the club or player as Brighton ended up 11th, with Estupinan only appearing in half (19) of their league games due to injury.

The Ecuador international returned to fitness in August, playing the final 20-plus minutes in a 1-1 draw at Arsenal and after sitting out their goalless draw at home to Ipswich Town on September 14 following his late arrival back from international duty, Estupinan has featured in Brighton's last eight Premier League matches, starting the last four. With summer signing Ferdi Kadioglu expected to miss out through injury again on Friday, it seems likely that Estupinan will start and finish another game for Brighton this week.

As a result, the 26-year-old piques my interest in the player card market. I'm a big fan of Estupinan, particularly going forward, and he's a very committed defender, but that aggression can sometimes overstep the mark, as evidenced by the 10 yellow cards he has received for Brighton in the Premier League since joining over two years ago.

He was only carded four times in 35 league appearances in 2022/23 but matched that number in 16 fewer appearances last season and already has two cautions in just six starts this term. The Ecuadorian was also booked in his only Carabao Cup start of the campaign against Wolves on September 18, meaning he has received three yellows in seven starts for his club side.

Estupinan is averaging 1.4 fouls per game in the Premier League so it's probably no surprise that he's been cautioned every three starts so far.

Despite Brighton being big favourites to win on Friday, it's shaping up to be a difficult match for Estupinan, who will likely be tasked with trying to keep Southampton star Tyler Dibling quiet. The 18-year-old has only started seven of his first 12 Premier League outings under Martin, averaging 56 minutes per game, but he's being fouled an average of 1.9 times per game. He was only chopped down once in last Sunday's 3-2 defeat to Liverpool at St Mary's Stadium but Andy Robertson's challenge on the Saints teenager resulted in a penalty for the hosts.

Before that defeat to the league leaders, Southampton lost 2-0 to Wolves at Molineux, where Dibling was only introduced at the start of the second half but was still fouled five times.

Meanwhile, the England U21 international caused a card for Bournemouth left-back Milos Kerkez in a 3-1 win for the Cherries on September 30, and has continued to prove troublesome for opposition left-backs, including Robertson last week.

The Seagulls should dominate Friday's fixture but Dibling will be crucial to the visitors' counter-attacks and Estupinan may be forced to take alternative action to deal with the direct running of the young winger.

Player goals - Joao Pedro (BHA) score anytime

What a return to action it has been for one-time record Brighton signing Joao Pedro, who missed six games - five in the Premier League - before making his comeback in the Seagulls' 2-1 win over Manchester City on November 9. Against the reigning champions, he came off the bench to equalise in the 78th minute before fellow substitute Matt O'Riley struck the winner - laid on by the Brazilian - five minutes later.

Joao Pedro followed up that goal and assist with another one of each in another 2-1 win last weekend as Bournemouth were beaten at Vitality Stadium. His strike against the Cherries was his fourth Premier League goal in just six appearances this season - his first two came in August - a late winner in a 2-1 win over Manchester United and an equaliser in a 1-1 draw at Arsenal.

The 23-year-old already looks well on the way to beating last season's league tally of nine goals and he has a great chance to close the gap further on Friday up against, statistically, the worst club in the division so far.

The former Fluminense and Watford forward is also Brighton's designated penalty-taker, increasing the likelihood of him finding the net against the Saints, who gave away a spot-kick in last weekend's defeat to Liverpool.

Player stats - Flynn Downes (SOU) 2+ fouls

Flynn Downes operated in the middle of a three-man backline at St Mary's last Sunday but could step back into a more familiar midfield role at the Amex on Friday, where he will be tasked with clamping some skilful Seagulls attackers, in particular Joao Pedro and Georginio Rutter, who have each been fouled 1.3 times per game on average this season.

Downes, meanwhile, is averaging 1.7 fouls per game this term, picking up four yellow cards. He's made at least two fouls in a match on six separate occasions, including in Southampton's last two away outings, and looks a solid shout to commit another couple of free-kicks in East Sussex.

Winning margin - Brighton win by 2+

Southampton were beaten by Liverpool last weekend but can be mighty proud of their efforts after coming from behind to lead 2-1 up until the 65th minute when Mohamed Salah stole the show with a match-winning brace.

Decent performances and pats on the back are all well and good but in the unforgiving world of the Premier League, Saints need points, not plaudits. They're unlikely to find many friends on Friday, however, with Brighton in frightening form, beating Tottenham Hotspur, Newcastle United, Man City and Bournemouth since the start of October - only Liverpool (twice - in the Carabao Cup and Premier League) have consigned them to defeat since a 4-2 loss to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on September 28.

Curiously, the Seagulls have only won by more than one goal on one occasion in this season's Premier League - a 3-0 victory over Everton at Goodison Park on the opening weekend of the campaign - but there's a strong argument to be made that Friday is their easiest assignment, on paper, this term.

Southampton have lost 10 times in this season's Premier League, and half (five) of those defeats have been by more than one goal, while four have come away from home.

I think they're in for another tough test on Friday, and I fancy Brighton to cruise to all three points at home, so back Hurzeler's side to win by at least two goals in the final leg of this Bet Builder, which comes to 11/1.

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