Brighton vs Aston Villa Prediction: Seagulls can get back in the goals on Sunday

 | 4th May | 

4 mins read

brighton aston villa prediction betting tips premier league 05-05-24

Brighton & Hove Albion host Aston Villa at the Amex Stadium on Sunday (14:00, Sky Sports Main Event), with the visitors looking to solidify their position in the top four.

Below I have outlined my Brighton vs Aston Villa prediction and noted all the latest team news and match odds heading into this Premier League clash.

Brighton vs Aston Villa Betting Tips

  • Over 3.5 goals @ 6/5
  • Danny Welbeck anytime goalscorer @ 21/10

Brighton's season looks to be petering out as they seemingly accept mid-table mediocrity. It was a campaign that promised so much but, after exiting the Europa League at the hands of AS Roma, the Seagulls are winless in six Premier League outings, form which has dragged them down to 12th.

The battle is now on for them to finish in the top half with Bournemouth four points clear of them in 10th, though Roberto De Zerbi's side do have a game in hand on the Cherries.

Villa, meanwhile, are chasing the Champions League as they sit pretty in fourth, seven points ahead of nearest rivals Tottenham Hotspur, who lost 2-0 to Chelsea on Thursday in one of their games in hand.

The Villans are reeling from a defeat of their own on Thursday, though, after Olympiakos beat them 4-2 at Villa Park in the first leg of their Europa Conference League semi-final tie.

Team News

Jan Paul van Hecke missed last weekend's 3-0 defeat to Bournemouth through injury and will miss out once again for Brighton alongside the likes of Pervis Estupinan, Evan Ferguson, James Milner, Solly March and Kaoru Mitoma.

Joel Veltman, Jakub Moder, Carlos Baleba and Danny Welbeck could all earn starts on Sunday after being benched on the south coast.

The visitors are still missing the services of Tyrone Mings, Emiliano Buendia, Jacob Ramsey and Boubacar Kamara, while it's likely too early for Youri Tielemans and Emiliano Martinez to return.

There is more hope over the availability of Alex Moreno, however.

Match Odds

There's not much separating these sides in the odds, with Brighton given an implied win probability of 36.4% at 7/4, and Villa 41.7% at 7/5.

The draw can be backed at 13/5 and Ollie Watkins, who scored a hat-trick in September's reverse fixture as Villa won 6-1, is 7/5 to score anytime on Sunday.

Over 3.5 goals @ 6/5

There were a mammoth seven strikes in the previous head-to-head as Unai Emery's side ran riot at Villa Park, and goals have tended to follow these sides this season.

Brighton's Premier League games average 3.21 goals - 1.53 for and 1.68 against - while Aston Villa's average 3.57 - 2.09 for and 1.49 against. Only three clubs - Newcastle United (3.79), Sheffield United (3.74) and Chelsea (3.65) average more than Villa.

No side has been involved in more games (20 - level with Newcastle and Sheffield United) with over 3.5 goals than Villa, though, and their last three games in all competitions have seen at least four goals scored.

Their defence was breached four times on Thursday by Olympiakos, so confidence is bound to be low in the Villa ranks, and that should give Brighton the determination to get back in the scoring groove.

The Seagulls were scoring for fun at the start of the season but have blanked in four of their last five matches, though their last home game did see four goals as Manchester City thrashed them 4-0.

Over 3.5 total goals in Brighton vs Aston Villa at 6-5

Danny Welbeck anytime goalscorer @ 21/10

Villa were undone twice on Thursday by a striker adept at running in behind as Olympiakos' Ayoub El Kaabi bagged a first-half brace at Villa Park. He scored a third from the penalty spot in the second half to help himself to a hat-trick.

Brighton forward Welbeck is someone who certainly thrives off making clever movements off the back of opposition defenders, and he could find some joy on Sunday.

The 33-year-old hasn't scored in his last five games and was restricted to a substitute appearance against Bournemouth, but looks likely to begin the match on Sunday and will be looking to add to the four Premier League goals he has already this term.

If Villa's high line is as bad as it was on Thursday, he'll have a great chance of doing so.

Danny Welbeck anytime goalscorer in Brighton vs Aston Villa at 21-10

Betfred are running their famed Double Delight & Hat-trick Heaven offer on this match, meaning that if a player scores first and then nets again, you will be paid at double the odds. If he grabs a hat-trick, you will be paid at treble the odds!

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.

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