Brazil vs Peru Prediction: Raphinha to raise roof in Brasilia

Brazil were staring at a fifth defeat in their last six qualifiers when Eduardo Vargas put Chile in front after just three minutes in Santiago last Friday, but the Selecao rallied to equalise just before half-time through Igor da Cruz and their persistence paid off in the second half as substitute Luiz Henrique struck an 89th-minute winner to secure a vital 2-1 victory for Dorival Jr.'s side.

Peru are next on the agenda for the five-time World Cup winners as they meet at the Estadio Nacional Mane Garrincha on Wednesday (01:45, Premier Sports 1). Read below for my Brazil vs Peru prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this 2026 Fifa World Cup qualifier in Brasilia.

Team News

Liverpool's Alisson Becker sustained a hamstring injury in the Reds' 1-0 victory over Crystal Palace earlier this month and was ruled out of Brazil's October internationals, opening up an opportunity for Manchester City's Ederson Moraes to play back-to-back games in goal.

Danilo (Juventus), Marquinhos (Paris Saint-Germain), Gabriel Magalhaes (Arsenal) and Abner (Lyon) lined up in a four-man defence in front of Ederson last week and the quartet could get the nod again on Wednesday.

Andre (Wolves) and Lucas Paqueta (West Ham United) started in midfield against Chile but the latter is suspended for the visit of Peru and will have to be replaced, likely by Bruno Guimaraes (Newcastle United), who provided the assist for Luis Henrique's winning goal last Friday. The Botafogo forward will hope that strike is enough to earn him a start in midweek, and out of the four attackers who began the game against La Roja - club teammate Igor da Cruz, Raphinha (Barcelona), Rodrygo (Real Madrid) and Savinho (Manchester City) - it is the Man City man whose starting spot is most at risk in Brasilia.

Football Odds

Peru were missing several key stars for the visit of Uruguay to Lima last week but it mattered little as a late Miguel Araujo (Portland Timbers) strike secured all three points for La Blanquirroja. Head coach Jorge Fossati must now decide whether to stick with a winning formula for the trip to Brazil.

Orland City goalkeeper Pedro Gallese is expected to be kept busy on Wednesday, and he will be calling on the support of the central defenders in front of him - Araujo, Carlos Zambrano (Alianza Lima) and Luis Abram (Atlanta United) - who helped him keep a clean sheet against La Celeste.

Andy Polo (Universitario) and Alexander Callens (AEK) could reprise their roles as wing-backs with Oliver Sonne (Silkeborg), Jesus Castillo (Gil Vicente) and Sergio Pena (Malmo) in the middle of midfield, while Alex Valera and Edison Flores (both Universitario) will expect to keep their places in attack.

Brazil vs Peru Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Brazil vs Peru page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Brazil have won the last seven meetings between these sides on Brazilian soil and are 2/11 to claim all three points on Wednesday, giving them an implied win probability of 84.6%. Peru, meanwhile, are 12/1, or a 7.7% chance, to triumph away for the first time in this qualification campaign, and a draw is available at 9/2.

Both teams to score is priced at 13/8 and over 2.5 total goals at 8/11, while Endrick (6/5) leads the anytime goalscorer market followed by teammates Igor (5/4) and Rodrygo (6/4). Alex Valeria (5/1) is considered Peru's most likely goalscorer in Brasilia.

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 2.5 - Brazil Win & Under 2.5 Goals @ 9/5

Brazil haven't been firing on all cylinders of late, to put it mildly. The Selecao started the qualification campaign off positively with back-to-back victories at home to Bolivia (5-1) and away to Peru (0-1) but after drawing 1-1 in Cuiaba with Venezuela, the South American giants lost their next three games against Uruguay (2-0), Colombia (2-1) and Argentina (0-1).

Dorival Jr.'s first match in charge wasn't until earlier this year when he oversaw a victory over England (0-1) at Wembley but two of his next three games ended in stalemate and Brazil won just once at the 2024 Copa America in the USA before being knocked out at the quarter-final stage on penalties by Uruguay.

Brazil have won two of their three qualifiers since that tournament embarrassment but they were only slender victories at home to Ecuador (1-0) and away to Chile (1-2), and in between them, they lost 1-0 in Asuncion to Paraguay, whose only previous win in the campaign was against Bolivia (1-0) in October 2023.

Therefore, while Brazil would ordinarily be expected to coast to a routine three points against Peru, whom they have beaten five times on the trot heading into Wednesday, the Selecao aren't offering much certainty these days, and I definitely won't be tipping a big win this week.

Peru are ninth in the 10-team standing heading into round 10 and have won just one of their first nine qualifiers, but that victory came last time out as they beat Uruguay 1-0 in Lima last Saturday, and they've lost just one of their last four games in the campaign.

However, those three matches - the win against Uruguay and the draws with Colombia and Venezuela (both 1-1) - were all at home in Lima, and they've lost three of their four away matches - versus Ecuador (1-0), Bolivia and Chile (both 2-0) - and also failed to score in a goalless draw with Paraguay in Asuncion.

As such, a Peru goal in Brasilia on Wednesday seems fanciful, irrespective of Brazil's recent struggles.

The Selecao will expect to keep a much-needed clean sheet against the Peruvians and they should be confident of making it three wins from their last four in qualifying, but they may choose to protect whatever lead they build up rather than looking to record a big victory, so a home success and under 2.5 goals at 9/5 is the way to go here, I think.

Anytime Goalscorer - Raphinha (BRA) @ 13/8

The former Leeds United man didn't exactly capture the hearts of Barcelona supporters across his first two seasons with the club but he's made a brilliant start to the current campaign, scoring five times and registering four assists in his first nine La Liga appearances, while he's also recorded a goal and assist in the Uefa Champions League.

He's even stepped up to captain the Blaugrana in the absence of regular skipper Marc-Andre ter Stegen, leading them to victories over Young Boys (5-0) and Alaves (0-3) before linking up with the Selecao at the beginning of last week.

Raphinha was unable to get on the scoresheet in Santiago as Brazil edged past Chile but his importance was underlined by the fact he played the entire 90-plus minutes, and the 27-year-old will expect to play a significant part of Wednesday's encounter.

The 28-cap international has seven goals at senior level for the national team and was on target in Brazil's first home game of the qualification campaign, scoring their second in a 5-1 victory over Bolivia in Belem.

Raphinha and Rodrygo are the most certain starters in Brazil's attack in Brasilia this week so I was deliberating between the two over who I was going to pick to score against La Blanquirroja, but given his terrific start to the season, I'm opting for the Barcelona winger.

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