Brazil vs Paraguay Prediction: Ancelotti made to wait for first win

Brazil welcome Paraguay to Arena Corinthians in the early hours of Wednesday morning (01:45, live on Premier Sports 2) as the Selecao continue their 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign.

Carlo Ancelotti's first game in the Brazil dugout resulted in a goalless stalemate against Ecuador, so the former Real Madrid boss will be eager to get a maiden victory under his belt here. Read on for my Brazil vs Paraguay predictions, as well as the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

After the 0-0 draw in his first game in charge, Ancelotti may be tempted to make changes to his starting XI for the visit of Paraguay.

Vinicius Jr. is likely to keep his place on the left flank but Richarlison could be swapped out for Matheus Cunha, and Ancelotti has already confirmed that Barcelona star Raphinha will feature in this game, after the 28-year-old was suspended against Ecuador.

Manchester United midfielder Casemiro returned to the Brazil side against Ecuador and is expected to retain his place here.

As for the visitors, Gustavo Alfaro's side emerged unscathed injury-wise from the victory over Uruguay last time out.

Gatito Fernandez will retain his place between the sticks, and will be protected by a back four likely made up of Juan Jose Caceres, Gustavo Gomez, Omar Alderete and Junior Alonso.

Former Newcastle United man Miguel Almiron will start on the right flank, while Antonio Sanabria is expected to spearhead the attack.

Brazil vs Paraguay Odds

Brazil are 4/11 favourites for this match, giving them an implied win probability of 73.3%, while the draw is 3/1 and a Paraguay win can be backed at 15/2.

Richarlison leads the anytime goalscorer market at 8/5, alongside Vinicius Jr., and Isidro Pitta is shortest-priced for the visitors at 9/2.

Match Result - Draw @ 3/1

Brazil and Paraguay have had plenty of battles over the years, with the former dominating the head-to-head record, winning 52 matches compared to Paraguay’s 14.

Therefore, you can understand why the hosts are such a short price to win in the early hours of Wednesday morning. However, Paraguay are more than capable of causing an upset, as displayed by the 1-0 win over Brazil earlier in this World Cup qualifying campaign.

Brazil's recent form has been patchy, with just six wins in 15 qualifiers and a record that includes conceding in five of seven matches at home. Add in the fact that Ancelotti has only been in the job two minutes and probably doesn't know his best team, and it starts to become apparent why this fixture may not be as straightforward as it may seem on paper.

Paraguay are unbeaten in nine qualifiers and boast the best defensive record in the qualifying group, with only nine goals conceded and eight clean sheets. Therefore, I'm backing the draw and expecting the visitors to stun Brazil once again, and make Ancelotti wait that little bit longer for his first win as Selecao boss.

Raphinha to score anytime @ 7/4

As mentioned above, Ancelotti has already confirmed Raphinha's involvement in this fixture, after the Barcelona forward missed out against Ecuador due to suspension, and Brazil certainly felt his absence.

Coming off a red-hot season with 34 goals in 57 games and an impressive Champions League statline of 13 goals in 14 appearances, Raphinha enters this clash as Brazil's leading scorer in the qualifiers with five goals.

The former Leeds United winger will be well-rested after his suspension, and desperate to make an impact here, so I'm backing him to score anytime at 7/4.

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