Brazil vs Colombia Prediction: Hot-tempered clash in Santa Clara

 | Tuesday 2nd July 2024, 12:33pm

Tuesday 2nd July 2024, 12:33pm

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The 2024 Copa America group stage concludes on Wednesday and in Group D, top spot is still up for grabs as Brazil and Colombia (02:00, Premier Sports 1) fight it out to face Panama and avoid a quarter-final tie with Uruguay.

Read below for my Brazil vs Colombia prediction and all the latest team news ahead of this group decider at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California.

Brazil vs Colombia Betting Tips

  • Double Chance - Draw or Colombia @ 10/11
  • Bet Builder - Both teams to score, Luis Diaz 2+ shots, Daniel Munoz 4+ tackles, each team over 19.5 booking points @ 4/1

Copa America Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Copa America page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this competition.

State of Play

Brazil opened their 2024 Copa America campaign with a disappointing goalless draw against Costa Rica, which immediately put the Selecao on the back foot in Group D.

Dorival Junior's side sought to make amends in their next match by thrashing Paraguay 4-1, with Vinicius Jr. (x2), Savio and Lucas Paqueta all getting on the scoresheet after the latter had missed a 31st-minute penalty.

However, they must now beat Colombia in Santa Clara to leapfrog their opponents into first place and avoid a tough quarter-final tie with Uruguay, who steamrolled their rivals to collect maximum points in Group C.

Colombia will also be eyeing up a quarter-final against Panama, though, and they have good reason to believe that they can hold Brazil off on Wednesday.

Los Cafeteros have won both games in Group D so far, beating Paraguay 2-1 courtesy of strikes from Crystal Palace pair Daniel Munoz and Jefferson Lerma before routing Costa Rica 3-0 through goals from Luis Diaz, Davinson Sanchez and Jhon Cordoba.

Colombia only need to avoid defeat to secure top spot, while Brazil aren't even mathematically guaranteed to advance to the knockouts if they lose and Costa Rica beat Paraguay, though it would require a significant goal swing for the unthinkable to occur.

Team News

Neither team has any suspended players but Lerma, Cordoba and Richard Rios will incur a one-game ban if they pick up a second yellow card of the competition on Wednesday, while the same can be said of Brazilian quartet Vinicius Jr., Paqueta, Wendell and Eder Militao.

The only injury concern on either side is Colombia defender Jhon Lucumi, who was substituted midway through the first half of his country's victory over Paraguay and subsequently missed their win against Costa Rica.

The Bologna ace looks set to miss out again tomorrow, with Carlos Cuesta looking to get the nod over Yerry Mina once more.

Brazil vs Colombia Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Brazil vs Colombia page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Brazil are 9/10 favourites to take all three points on Wednesday, giving them an implied win probability of 52.6%, while Colombia can be backed to win at 11/4, or a 26.7% chance.

The draw is available at 9/4, both teams to score at 10/11, and over 2.5 goals at 6/5.

Double Chance - Draw or Colombia @ 10/11

I'm slightly surprised the double chance on Colombia is near EVS given the respective form of both teams.

Colombia are on a 25-game unbeaten run heading into Wednesday, last tasting defeat to Argentina (0-1) in Cordoba in February 2022. They've won 20 of those matches and are on a 10-match winning streak which began last November with a 2-1 victory over Brazil in Barranquilla.

Gabriel Martinelli put the Selecao into an early lead but Los Cafeteros hit back in the second half through a quick-fire Diaz double and held on for a vital three points in World Cup qualifying.

Brazil, meanwhile, have won just three of their last nine games, losing three of them - all against high-level South American opposition in Uruguay, Colombia and Argentina.

A 3-3 draw with Spain in March wasn't exactly embarrassing, but they warmed up for Copa America with a 1-1 draw against the USA, who subsequently finished third in their group behind Panama, and were then held by Costa Rica in their tournament opener.

The momentum is with Colombia heading into this contest, but Brazil can at least point to the fact that they are unbeaten in their last six matches, with their most recent defeat coming last November.

Colombia only need a draw to clinch top spot, too, which is why I'm backing the double chance, rather than them to win, which I would do if there was more at stake for them. They will be desperate to face Panama rather than Uruguay in the next round, and I think it will be a case of hanging on to what they have if the scores are level heading into the latter stages on Wednesday.

Colombia or draw vs Brazil @ 10-11

Bet Builder - Both teams to score, Luis Diaz 2+ shots, Daniel Munoz 4+ tackles, each team over 19.5 booking points @ 4/1

Both teams scored in Colombia's victory over Brazil just under seven months ago, and with the likes of Diaz, Vinicius Jr., and Rodrygo on the pitch in Santa Clara, it would be a surprise if there wasn't at least a goal on either side on Wednesday.

Brazil were frustrated in their goalless draw with Costa Rica but have scored in their five other games this calendar year, conceding in four of them and shipping multiple goals to Spain (three) and Mexico (two).

Those defensive numbers will be music to the ears of the Colombians, who haven't been shut out since being held to a goalless draw by Ecuador last October, scoring in all 10 games since.

They're not exactly watertight themselves either, however, as they have conceded in half (five) of those matches and shipped a couple to Romania in a 3-2 friendly win in March.

Diaz was the hero for Colombia the last time these sides met, scoring two goals from a mammoth 10 shots, and he got himself off the mark in this year's Copa America by converting a penalty against Costa Rica last time out.

That spot-kick was one of three shots in that match for Diaz, who took two in his nation's opener against Paraguay, and he will be looking to prey on the vulnerabilities evident in the Brazilian backline.

Meanwhile, Palace right-back Munoz will be looking to get stuck into the likes of Vinicius Jr. and Rodrygo as he bids to maintain his strong start to the tournament.

Only Ecuador's Jon Aramburu (7.5) and Argentina's Cristian Romero (seven) are averaging more tackles per game at Copa America than Munoz (6.5), who made four against Paraguay before following it up with nine v Costa Rica.

Whether he can hit those heights against Brazil remains to be seen, but with the talent in their ranks, you would think he has a good chance of at least matching the four he managed v Paraguay.

Costa Rice made 19 tackles against Brazil while Paraguay made 31, with their right-back Gustavo Velazquez responsible for five of them.

Rounding off this bet builder is for each team to receive over 19.5 booking points. With Betfred, yellow cards are worth 10 points, while red cards total 25 points.

This selection landed in Brazil's victory over Paraguay and was 10 points off in their stalemate with Costa Rica, and the latter can be said for both of Colombia's games so far.

Brazil picked up 20 booking points in the last head-to-head between these sides, with Colombia somehow managing to stay on 10 despite Sanchez's 20th-minute yellow card.

I think we will see a more fiery Colombian side on Wednesday, however, as they look to grind out a positive result to ensure they stay top of Group D, while Brazil will be looking to unsettle Los Cafeteros and pressure them high up the pitch, which could result in a lot of free kicks being given away.

Brazil vs Colombia bet builder @ 4-1

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