Bournemouth vs Brighton Prediction: More penalty drama on the South Coast

A South Coast tussle takes place at Vitality Stadium on Saturday afternoon (15:00 BST) as AFC Bournemouth host Brighton & Hove Albion in the Premier League. Both sides won before the international break, with the Cherries beating Tottenham Hotspur 1-0 in north London, and the Seagulls edging out Manchester City 2-1 at the Amex Stadium.

Below are my Bournemouth vs Brighton predictions, as well as all the essential team news and match odds, ahead of their weekend match.

Team News

Bournemouth right-back Adam Smith picked up a hamstring injury in the win at Spurs before the international break, and Cherries boss Andoni Iraola has revealed that the 34-year-old is expected to be out for a "few more weeks".

Smith's spot in the starting XI is likely to be taken by either James Hill or the returning Julian Araujo, who served a suspension against the Lilywhites.

Lewis Cook has missed Bournemouth's start to the season with a knee injury, but he has an outside chance of making Saturday's squad after recently returning to training.

Enes Unal (knee) remains in the Cherries treatment room, while Alejandro Jimenez and Veljko Milosavljevic, who joined from AC Milan and Red Star Belgrade, respectively, on transfer deadline day, will be hoping to make their debuts against Brighton.

Football Odds

As for the Seagulls, Adam Webster and Solly March (both knee) are confirmed absentees, while Mats Wieffer (knee) will be assessed closer to kick-off after sitting out the 2-1 victory over Manchester City last time out.

Brighton only scored their equaliser against the Citizens after a quadruple substitution on the hour mark that saw James Milner, Yasin Ayari, Georginio Rutter and Brajan Gruda enter the field of play. Rutter should start ahead on Saturday, while Milner and Gruda did their chances of making the XI no harm by netting their side's goals at the Amex Stadium.

Today's Football Fixtures

Bournemouth vs Brighton Odds

Bournemouth are hunting a third straight Premier League win on Saturday, and they are 11/8, or a 42.1% chance, to get it. Brighton, meanwhile, are 2/1 (33.3%) to claim a first league away win this season, while a first stalemate between the two teams since New Year's Day 2018 can be backed at 13/5.

Cherries centre-forward Evanilson (13/8) heads the anytime goalscorer market, with Seagulls striker Danny Welbeck (15/8) first up for the visitors.

Will there be a penalty awarded? - Yes @ 9/4

Brighton are the only Premier League side who have been awarded a penalty in every game so far this season.

Rutter was fouled in the 1-1 opening weekend draw with Fulham, allowing Matt O'Riley, who has since departed to French giants Marseille, to open the scoring against the Cottagers.

Eight days later, in the 2-0 defeat at Everton, Welbeck was handed the opportunity to get off the mark this term from 12 yards, but his resulting spot-kick, after Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall had handled in his own area, was saved by Toffees goalkeeper Jordan Pickford.

There was a third different taker in the 2-1 win over Man City, as Milner slotted past James Trafford following a handball from Matheus Nunes.

It should be no surprise to see Brighton top of the penalty charts after three matches, considering only Liverpool (nine) received more spot-kicks than the Seagulls (seven) in last season's Premier League.

Bournemouth, meanwhile, matched Brighton's penalty count, and unlike Hurzeler's side, who missed one of their seven, the Cherries converted all of theirs.

With a wealth of attacking talent on display again this weekend, including Antoine Semenyo, Marcus Tavernier, Rutter, Kaoru Mitoma and Yankuba Minteh, it wouldn't be a surprise to see another penalty awarded in a game between these two teams, as there was in their last meeting, at the Amex on February 25, when Joao Pedro converted from the spot after being fouled by Kepa Arrizabalaga.

Player to Receive a Card - Antoine Semenyo (BOU) @ 3/1

Considering he was booked in both head-to-heads last season and was cautioned against Spurs, 3/1 for Semenyo to receive a card on Saturday looks to be on the slightly generous side.

The 25-year-old received six yellows in his first full Premier League campaign (2023/24) with the Cherries, before being booked nine times last season, and he's already off the mark this term following his caution at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on August 30.

Semenyo's Premier League card tally is of little surprise when you see he was averaging two fouls per game last season, making a whopping nine across two meetings with Brighton - four at home, five away.

The Ghana international has committed two fouls in each of his first three top-flight appearances this term, and if he starts on the left wing, as he did against Spurs, he could be up against Brighton right-back Joel Veltman, who was fouled, on average, 2.1 times per game in 2024/25. The Dutchman was taken down twice at the Vitality, with the first of those offences committed by Semenyo.

Veltman made his first Premier League appearance of the season as a starter against Man City last time out, and he was upended four times by the Citizens. The first of those fouls was made by Omar Marmoush, playing on the left-hand side of City's attack, while the next three were made by flying left-back Rayan Ait-Nouri, who was booked for his fourth offence - this time on Rutter - later in the game.

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