Bournemouth vs Swansea Prediction: Cherries to show Premier League class

The Fourth Round of the FA Cup kicks into gear on Thursday night as Bournemouth host Swansea City, with kick-off at 19:45. 

The Premier League side took a battering at the hands of Liverpool last time out and will be hoping to get back on track here, while Swansea have slid to 16th in the Championship after a defeat to high-flying Southampton. 

We’ve previewed this crucial encounter, and put forward a couple of betting selections for you to consider. 

Team News

Andoni Iraola is likely to make several changes for this one, and rotate his squad accordingly. Starts could be given to Kieffer Moore, Alex Scott and David Brooks while Marcos Senesi is available for selection again. Full-back Max Aarons looks likely to miss this tie having come off late in the Liverpool game with an injury.

Swansea have a few injury issues to deal, as Luke Williams has been without Sam Parker, Josh Key, Liam Walsh and Ben Cabango. It would be a surprise to see any of that quartet feature in this FA Cup clash. 

Match Odds

On home soil, Bournemouth are heavy favourites to win this match at a price of 1/4. If you fancy an upset, Swansea are available at 9/1 with a draw priced at 5/1. BTTS is 10/11 and over 2.5 goals is 8/15 as we expect a decent game on the south coast. 

Over 2.5 Bournemouth goals @ 11/10

Searching for value in this match isn’t particularly easy if you believe the home side are going to progress. I believe Bournemouth, despite their 4-0 defeat to Liverpool, have proven they are a mid-table Premier League side over the last few months and they should survive comfortably in the top flight. 

Even with the expected changes, they should be able to dominate a Swansea outfit still finding their feet under new boss Luke Williams. They were well-beaten by Southampton at the weekend, and the Saints would probably hold their own in the Premier League this term. With the additional investment Bournemouth made in the summer, the likes of Scott, Brooks and Moore should be able take this Swansea team apart. 

I’m expecting a free-flowing attacking performance from the home side, so the price of 11/10 on them to score three or more goals is good value in my eyes. 

Bournemouth 3-0 Swansea @ 7/1

The best way to find value in these games featuring a short-price favourite is to nail the correct score. It’s more favourable to back a correct score rather than a first goalscorer in these sorts of matches given we aren’t sure exactly how many minutes each player will be given. 

I believe Bournemouth will win this game comfortably and, as explained above, score over 2.5 goals. However, I don’t believe it will reach the heights of 4 or 5-0, simply because the Premier League side will likely take their foot off the pedal, and potentially give youth players some minutes. 

Swansea conceded three against Southampton and two against Birmingham City in their last two outings, while they beat League Two Morecambe to reach this stage. The Cherries are likely to race into an early lead, before the game peters out. They’ve got the quality to pick off Swansea whenever they like, and I fancy the 3-0 scoreline at a generous price of 7/1. 

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