Borussia Dortmund vs PSG prediction: Mbappe to strike

The pressure is on Paris Saint-Germain to avoid a first Champions League group-stage elimination in 12 years when they travel to BVB Stadion to face already-qualified Borussia Dortmund on Wednesday.

Victory will take Luis Enrique’s side into the last 16, but anything else would leave their progression dependent on the outcome of the clash between Group F rivals Newcastle and AC Milan. 

Three European wins in a row mean Dortmund only need a point to confirm their status as one of the eight seeded teams in next week’s draw for the knockout phase. 

Team news

Emre Can misses out through suspension, leaving Dortmund potentially short of experience in midfield if Marcel Sabitzer is unable to recover from the calf problem that kept him out of their 3-2 win at RB Leipzig on Saturday.

Felix Nmecha (hip), Julian Ryerson (knee), Youssoufa Moukoko (hamstring), Sebastien Haller (knee) and Julian Duranville (thigh) are all unavailable.

PSG winger Bradley Barcola stands by to deputise for suspended star Ousmane Dembele in Germany.

Randal Kolo Muani has started all five group games so far and should return to join Kylian Mbappe in attack with Warren Zaire-Emery another option to bolster the midfield after he came through a 30-minute substitute appearance unscathed on Sunday.

Match odds

Borussia Dortmund can be backed at 13/5 for the home win, Paris Saint-Germain are available at 4/5 to pick up all three points and the draw is also a 13/5 chance.

Draw or Paris Saint-Germain And Under 2.5 goals @ 7/4

PSG occupy the favourable qualifying position they are in only because of a dubious penalty awarded against Newcastle’s Tino Livramento in the eighth and final minute of added time in the sides’ 1-1 draw in Paris last month.

The VAR official who reviewed the spot-kick was subsequently stood down from his next game but the damage, once Mbappe had converted, was already done to the Magpies’ last-16 prospects.

PSG now have a chance to seal a place in the knockout phase and they should not let it go.

However, the French champions have not been particularly prolific away from the Parc des Princes in this competition of late, scoring no more than once in seven of their last 10 trips.

Four of their five most recent contests with Dortmund have come in under the 2.5 goal mark as have all of the Bundesliga outfit’s last five Champions League home games, so the form points to a low-scoring affair.

Corner Handicap Paris Saint-Germain -1 @ 23/20 

One area where these two clubs have fared very differently throughout this campaign has been in winning and conceding corners.

PSG have won 42 corners across their five games to Dortmund’s 30 and Luis Enrique’s side have allowed their opponents only 20 corners, less than half the number Edin Terzic’s side have faced.

Given the onus will be on PSG to come out to play on Wednesday, the -1 Corner handicap on the visitors looks very tempting.

Kylian Mbappe to score at any time @ 5/6

Mbappe has scored 43 goals in 66 Champions League appearances and will be desperate to ensure his dream of holding the trophy aloft does not die before the knockout phase this year.

He scored from the penalty spot against Dortmund in Paris back in September and will no doubt be the taker should they be awarded another in Germany.

That was one of four goals he has scored against the Bundesliga club in five previous appearances against them, marking him out as the main dangerman to the home side’s chances of topping the group.