Borussia Dortmund vs PSG Prediction: Home leg key for the hosts

 | 30th April | 

4 mins read

Borussia Dortmund vs PSG

Borussia Dortmund welcome Paris Saint-Germain to Signal Iduna Park on Wednesday night (20:00) for the first leg of their Champions League semi-final. The Black and Yellows sealed their place in the last four after a triumphant 4-2 victory on home soil against Atletico Madrid in the quarter-finals.

PSG got past Barcelona in the previous round and these two sides are no strangers to each other having both been in Group F together in the first half of the campaign. They played out a 1-1 draw in Dortmund but PSG were 2-0 victors at Parc des Princes. The host's home form has been key in Europe and that has factored into my Borussia Dortmund vs PSG predictions.

Borussia Dortmund vs PSG Betting Tips

  • First team to score: Borussia Dortmund @ 19/20
  • Borussia Dortmund or draw and over 2.5 goals @ 6/4

Match Odds

Dortmund are 7/4 to take the advantage heading into the second leg, giving them a 36.4% chance of victory. PSG are marketed at 7/5, which gives them an implied probability of 41.7%. The draw can be backed at 11/4 (26.7%).

Both teams to score landed when these two teams played at Signal Iduna Park in the group stage and it is valued at 2/5 to deliver again. Over 2.5 goals is 1/2.

PSG's Kylian Mbappe is the leading marksman in the Champions League with eight goals. He is 3/1 to open the scoring on Wednesday evening.

Team News

The hosts have a few injury concerns heading into Tuesday's clash. Ramy Bensebaini and Sebastien Haller are definitely out, while Ian Maatsen, Mats Hummels and Donyell Malen will need to be assessed ahead of the game.

Maatsen and midfielder Emre Can will be available for selection after the pair served a suspension in the Bundesliga at the weekend, and the latter returning would give Dortmund a boost. Top goalscorer Niclas Fullkrug, who has 14 goals across all competitions this season, will be aiming to score for a third successive home match against Les Parisiens.

PSG are going to be without Presnel Kimpembe, Sergio Rico and Layvin Kurzawa, with all three players in the treatment room. Boss Luis Enrique rested a few of his star players in the weekend's draw with Le Havre. Gianluigi Donnarumma, Nuno Mendes, Fabian Ruiz and Lucas Hernandez were all left out of the squad and are primed to return for the trip to Germany.

First team to score: Borussia Dortmund @ 19/20 

I like the look of this market because PSG have failed to score the first goal in five of their 10 Champions League fixtures this term, including the last meeting with Dortmund at Signal Iduna Park.

The Ligue 1 champions also fell behind in both legs against Barcelona in the quarter-finals. What has also factored into this selection is the fact that Dortmund are yet to taste defeat on home soil in Europe. Edin Terzic's men have been resolute when playing at home and I imagine they will be difficult to beat once again.

The Black and Yellows have also scored the opening goal in seven of their Champions League matches this year, which is why I feel confident in them opening proceedings in this first leg.

Borussia Dortmund to score first at 19/20 Borussia Dortmund or draw and over 2.5 goals @ 6/4

With that in mind, I think the German side will be able to maintain their unbeaten record at home in Europe. They've already shown that they can do this against Wednesday's opponents following their 1-1 draw earlier in the season, and they will fancy themselves to at least draw again on this occasion.

However, after they turned in an impressive 4-2 display at home against Atletico Madrid in the previous round, I believe they can deliver another impressive home performance. I've already highlighted that PSG tend to start slowly in Europe and Dortmund can capitalise on that with their unbeaten run at home.

I think that the Black and Yellows will end the season unbeaten at home in the Champions League, but to boost the odds I have added for there to be over 2.5 goals. Both sides have a lot of attacking talent in their ranks and I think that the fact that we are now at the semi-finals stage means we will see a lot of attacking intent from the get-go.

Seven of PSG's European clashes has seen over 2.5 goals land, while Dortmund have only been involved in three games with three or more goals. Given the stakes, I think we could see goals fly in Germany.

Dortmund/draw and over 2.5 goals at 6/4 Betfred are running their famed Double Delight & Hat-trick Heaven offer on this match, meaning that if a player scores first and then nets again, you will be paid at double the odds. If he grabs a hat-trick, you will be paid at treble the odds!

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.

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