Borussia Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Away side to get job done

We’ve got a cracking Champions League quarter-final coming our way on Tuesday as Borussia Dortmund host Atletico Madrid, looking to overturn the 2-1 deficit from the first leg. The German side looked down and out at 2-0 down as Atleti piled on the pressure, but a late Sebastien Haller strike has reignited their hopes of reaching the final four. 

Below you can read my Borussia Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid prediction, featuring match odds and betting tips. 

Team News

Dortmund saw Karim Adeyemi sent off this weekend, but he will be able to play in this one while Jadon Sancho should also return from illness, having missed the clash with Borussia Monchengladbach. Haller was taken off in that game with a knock and so could miss out, while Ramy Bensebaini is definitely sidelined with a knee issue. 

Donyell Malen may start up front if Haller is absent, as Niclas Fullkrug has been ineffective of late. Julian Brandt is also pushing for a start in midfield, but may have to settle for a place on the bench. 

Meanwhile, Memphis Depay is in the physio room for the visitors, and Marcos Paulo and Thomas Lemar remain out. One positive for Diego Simeone is the return of Mario Hermoso, who played against Girona on Saturday. Saul Niguez may need a late fitness test but Pablo Barrios has served his suspension and will be back in the squad. 

Match Odds

Dortmund are 6/5 to win on the night in 90 minutes, giving them an implied win probability of 45%. Meanwhile, a draw that would see Atleti progress is 11/4, while an away win is priced at 2/1. BTTS can be backed at 8/15, and over 2.5 goals is 4/6. 

BTTS @ 8/15

Both teams are likely to find the net here so I’m happy to kick things off with this straightforward selection. Both teams scored in Madrid and I believe, with the way things are set up, it should happen again. Simply put, Dortmund have to score. If they don’t, then they are out. 

They are going to come out all guns blazing, but I believe this style may actually present several opportunities to the away side. A difficult team to stop on the counter-attack, Atleti managed nine shots on target from just 33% possession in the first leg - and that was at home! Expect more of the same here, with one of those shots likely to find the net given the attacking quality they possess. 

Draw or Atletico Madrid @ 8/13

I’m pretty certain that Atletico are going to be the ones to progress from this tie, one way or another. They’ve got the fighting spirit that should suit them in this type of away game and they are more than happy to play without the ball and strike on the counter-attack. I think they were far superior to Dortmund in that first leg despite the narrow scoreline and I think across the second 90 minutes we will see more of the same.

Simeone is a master of these sorts of game, and will be able to adapt his side to suit every potential scenario. If he needs to go on the attack, he will unleash Antoine Griezmann, while his side always have the ability to hold on and defend for their lives if need be. They are the team you want to avoid in a knockout tie, and they should have enough to make it through. If you fancy slightly longer odds, BTTS and draw is priced at 16/5. 

Check out our other Football Betting Tips here.