Bolivia vs Paraguay Prediction: La Verde to grind out victory in El Alto

After a difficult start to their 2026 Fifa World Cup qualification campaign, losing three and winning just one of their first six games, Paraguay have turned things around massively in the last few months and are now one of the most in-form teams in the table. La Albirroja are unbeaten in their last five matches, winning all three at home and drawing both away, but are now faced with one of the most unique challenges in international football - playing away to Bolivia in El Alto on Tuesday (22:00).

Since relocating from the capital of La Paz to the Estadio Municipal de El Alto, where there is an even higher altitude, La Verde have beaten both Venezuela (4-0) and Colombia (1-0), highlighting the herculean task ahead of their visitors on Tuesday. Below is my Bolivia vs Paraguay prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Bolivia will be without Bolivar defender Jose Sagredo against Paraguay after he was sent off in the 24th minute of last Friday's 4-0 thrashing in Ecuador. Ponte Preta centre-back and national team captain Sebastian Alvarez could replace the 30-year-old.

Head coach Oscar Villegas opted not to play Alvarez, fellow defender Marcelo Suarez, midfielder Robson Matheus (both Always Ready) and 20-year-old attacker Miguel 'Miguelito' Treceros (Santos) in Guayaquil last week, with the first three walking a disciplinary tightrope and the latter recovering from illness. The quartet could all start this crunch clash, however.

Football Odds

After bagging a brace off the bench to help down Venezuela 2-1 in Asuncion last month, Torino striker Antonio Sanabria was given the nod to lead the La Albirroja line ahead of Cuiaba's Isidro Pitta against Argentina on Thursday. His selection by head coach Gustavo Alfaro was more than justified as he scored Paraguay's equaliser in the 19th minute to cancel out Lautaro Martinez's opening effort eight minutes earlier before Getafe centre-back Omar Alderete struck the winner for the hosts in the second half.

Alfaro is, therefore, probably obliged to stick with his starting XI for the trip to El Alto. However, Lanus right-back Juan Caceres is available for selection again after serving a one-match ban for an accumulation of yellow cards last time out.

Bolivia vs Paraguay Odds

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Bolivia are 9/10 to make it four home wins on the spin - three in El Alto - giving La Verde an implied probability of 52.6%, while Paraguay are 16/5, or a 23.8% chance, to triumph away for this first time in this qualification campaign.

The draw is priced at 2/1, both teams to score at 5/4, and over 2.5 total goals at 13/8.

Bolivia and Kalamata forward Carmelo Algaranaz (21/10) is favorite to score anytime on Tuesday, with Pitta (100/30) shortest priced for the visitors.

Match Result & Total Goals Under/Over 2.5 Goals – Bolivia & Under 2.5 Goals @ 21/10

On the one hand, Paraguay are in great form, having beaten Argentina and Venezuela back-to-back and not suffered defeat in qualification since losing 1-0 at home to Colombia in November 2023. Prior to those wins over La Albiceleste and La Vinotinto, Alfaro's side had kept three consecutive clean sheets, holding Uruguay and Ecuador to goalless draws in Montevideo and Quito, respectively, either side of a 1-0 victory over Brazil in Asuncion.

Suddenly, qualification for the 2026 World Cup is in sight, with La Albirroja currently sixth, level on points with fifth-place Ecuador. There are seven rounds of fixtures remaining but as things stand, Paraguay would earn direct entry to Fifa's showpiece tournament, which takes place across the USA, Canada and Mexico.

However, they may find it difficult to move off 16 points until next year, as a tricky tie in El Alto awaits on Tuesday.

Bolivia began their home qualification campaign with defeats to Argentina (0-3) and Ecuador (1-2) last year but beat Peru (2-0) in their third and final match in La Paz before switching locations to El Alto, where they have a 100 per cent record so far.

Neither Venezuela nor Colombia have even been able to breach their defence at the Estadio Municipal de El Alto, despite La Verde being reduced to 10 men inside 20 minutes against the latter.

Paraguay, meanwhile, are yet to score on their travels, blanking in five away days so far, though they've only conceded twice, experiencing three goalless draws as well as a couple of one-goal defeats.

Bolivia have shipped 10 goals across their last two games, being hit for six by Argentina in Buenos Aires last month before suffering a 4-0 thrashing at the hands of Ecuador on Friday.

However, both of those qualifiers came away from El Alto, and back in their homeland, the Bolivians will expect to return to winning ways, although I wouldn't expect it to be pretty, and a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline feels most likely.

Correct Score – Bolivia 1-0 @ 4/1

Out of a 1-0 and 2-0 scoreline in favour of the hosts, I'm opting for the former for my second selection here.

Paraguay are familiar with single-goal defeats, losing 1-0 away to Venezuela and Argentina already in this qualification campaign, as well as suffering a 1-0 home defeat to Colombia last November.

La Albirroja have also triumphed 1-0 twice, beating Bolivia in the reverse fixture in October 2023 and beating Brazil by the same scoreline in September.

Bolivia, meanwhile, beat Colombia 1-0 in El Alto last month, the second time they have been involved in a 1-0 scoreline, albeit the first was in defeat to Paraguay.

La Verde hit four past Venezuela in September and struck a couple against Peru in November last year, but Paraguay are, statistically, one of the best defensive teams in qualifying, with only Ecuador (four) having conceded fewer goals than their tally of five in 11 games. Only two of those efforts have been away from home, too, highlighting just how resilient they can be on their travels.

Ultimately, I think Bolivia will collect all three points, but it could be a nervy encounter and a single strike might just do it.

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