Birmingham vs Peterborough Prediction: Blues to round off an incredible week

 | Saturday 12th April 2025, 12:23pm

Saturday 12th April 2025, 12:23pm

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Five days after they played each other in League 1, Birmingham City and Peterborough United collide at Wembley to contest the Vertu Trophy final on Sunday (15:00, Sky Sports Football). Posh are the reigning champions of this competition, having beaten Wycombe Wanderers here last season.

Birmingham won this trophy when they were last in the third tier in 1995, also winning the league title that year, led by Peterborough's director of football Barry Fry. After sealing promotion back to the Championship on Tuesday, Birmingham will be fired up to deliver their fans some more joy under the arch. Read on for my Birmingham vs Peterborough predictions, aided by the latest team news and match odds.

Birmingham vs Peterborough Betting Tips

  • Birmingham and both teams to score @ 2/1
  • Jay Stansfield anytime goalscorer @ 21/20

Odds correct at the time of publishing

Football Odds

Team News

Birmingham boss Chris Davies made six changes in midweek for the trip to Boro, making it clear that he and his players are fired up for this cup final. Top scorer Jay Stansfield was dropped to the bench, as were Ethan Laird, Paik Seung-ho, Keshi Anderson and Kieran Dowell.

Some of them made cameos at the West Homes Stadium, but they are expected to be restored to the starting line-up in HA9.

Ben Davies was left out of the squad completely but it is believed to have been a tactical decision. Captain Krystian Bielik, whose game time has been limited this season due to Davies' natural left foot being of great value at the back, gave an excellent performance on Tuesday, spraying some excellent passes across the field.

Bielik could be in contention to keep his place in the team on Sunday, but the likelihood will be that Davies comes back in to partner Christoph Klarer.

Lyndon Dykes (calf), Lee Buchanan and Scott Wright (both knee) are long-term absentees for Birmingham, while Emil Hansson is ruled out having suffered his third injury of the campaign.

Birmingham vs Peterborough Stats

  • Birmingham have won 39/53 games across all competitions this season
  • Peterborough have conceded the most penalties in League 1 in 2024/25 (seven)

Peterborough also made six changes in the week with Nicholas Bilokapic, Carl Johnston, Emmanuel Fernandez, Sam Hughes, Harley Mills and Mo Susoho coming into the side for Jed Steer, Jamie Dornelly, Oscar Wallin, Jadel Katongo, Tayo Edun and Hector Kyprianou respectively.

Edun and Hughes are unavailable for selection because they are cup-tied, having represented Charlton Athletic and Stockport County respectively earlier in the competition.

Surprisingly, Darren Ferguson stuck with his front four of Abraham Odoh, Malik Mothersille, Kwame Poku and Ricky-Jade Jones. This quartet should line up at Wembley to face the Blues again, and Poku caused the Birmingham defence some problems on Tuesday.

Boro's director of football Fry has said that Birmingham are still chasing one of his players after missing out on a couple in the summer (Ronnie Edwards and Harrison Burrows). It is heavily believed that Poku is the man they're after, but Fry has said that his former club will have to "cough up."

Birmingham vs Peterborough Odds

Birmingham have won 39 games across all competitions this season, setting a club record in the process. They have won four games on the spin coming into this, which included a victory over their opponents earlier in the week. They also beat Posh at St Andrew's back in September. Blues are 4/9 to win in 90 minutes here.

Combining this market with both teams to score is a more attractive price at 2/1 (which has an implied probability of 33.3%) because both meetings between the two teams this campaign produced goals at both ends.

If you think this final will go to extra time, the draw can be backed at 3/1. Peterborough are 5/1 to prevail in regulation time and they have won three of their last five fixtures coming into this contest.

Birmingham striker Alfie May has five goals in as many appearances coming into Sunday and he is the joint-favourite to score anytime at 21/20.

Birmingham and both teams to score @ 2/1

What a week it has been for Birmingham so far. They've sealed their return to the Championship at the first time of asking with six games to spare. Of course with the money spent it was expected, but they still had to go out and do it as it doesn't automatically buy success.

Chris Davies came into the club unexperienced as a manager and was tasked with transforming both the football and the mentality at Birmingham. He has exceeded in both and he probably won't get enough credit for the job he has done this year.

In his post-match huddle on Tuesday he told his players: "You've changed this club around. You've brought this club back to life." After 13 years of despair, he's not wrong.

The celebratory scenes were a sight to behold must now focus on another big game and produce more memories from this incredible campaign.

As a fan, this has been the most enjoyable campaign  in a very long time and it feels like the start of an incredible journey under the ownership of Knighthead Capital. Around 50,000 Bluenoses will be in attendance on Sunday, and this is sure to spark an extra gear from the players out on the pitch.

Birmingham come into this game with confidence and the psychological advantage of beating their opponents just days ago. The Blues have had plenty of clean sheets this term but I think their defence will be breached on Sunday, as Posh have scored against them in the two times they've played in the league.

Birmingham vs Peterborough - Match Result & Both Teams to Score Birmingham & Yes

Odds correct at time of publishing.

Jay Stansfield anytime goalscorer @ 21/20

He was given a rest on Tuesday but there is no way that Birmingham's top scorer, the poster boy of the new era, is going to be on the bench at Wembley.

Stansfield has been brilliant this season despite trollers online trying to tear him down because nine of his league goals have come from the penalty spot. He offers much more than his goals, with his intense pressing frequently leading to high turnovers and chances.

His last two goals have been penalties and I think he is worth backing to score here because he may be presented with such an opportunity from 12 yards on Sunday. Blues have been awarded the most spot-kicks in League 1 this season (13), while Peterborough are the side who have conceded the most (seven).

Stansfield will be desperate to grab a goal at Wembley and this is the kind of game where he can step up and deliver.

Birmingham vs Peterborough - Anytime Goalscorer Jay Stansfield

Odds correct at time of publishing.

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