Football Bet of the Day – Blackpool can pour more misery onto Forest

The wonderful FA Cup returns to our screens this midweek as those teams that couldn’t be separated the first time around meet again for a Third Round replay. We’ve taken a look at one of these fixtures to come up with our Football Bet of the Day for Wednesday 17th January. 

It feels like this is an FA Cup replay Nottingham Forest really don’t want to play at this moment in time. As with every Premier League club that drew in round three, this replay sits in the middle of what should be their ‘winter break’ with Forest’s blank weekend just gone no longer serving its purpose, with this FA Cup replay lurking on the horizon. 

Also casting a giant shadow on this game, is Forest’s impending punishment. The club are facing a potential points deduction after being charged with breaching the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules - the same rule break that saw Everton lose ten points earlier this season. 

This could completely obliterate Forest’s survival hopes, something they have invested so much time and money into over the past few years. Since promotion from the Championship through the playoffs in 2022, they've spent around £250m on 43 players - and that spending has now landed them in major trouble with the Premier League. 

We saw with Everton how the points deduction motivated them to secure some impressive results in the league, and Forest could do the same under Nuno Espirito Santo, but they will have to put all their eggs in the ‘Premier League survival’ basket. The FA Cup simply will slip to the bottom of the priority list, and as we saw in the first fixture, Blackpool can be more than a match for a second-string Forest side. 

Nuno will be well aware that the Premier League match against Brentford on Saturday afternoon is far more important to the club than this FA Cup replay at Bloomfield Road. As a result, you can expect an unrecognisable XI from the Premier League outfit, which leaves the door open for a shock. 

Blackpool meanwhile are going well in League One, and are now up to 8th under Neil Critchley. The manager returned to the club after their relegation from the Championship and is tasked with taking the Tangerines straight back up. They are on an unbeaten run of four matches in all competitions and during that time they’ve scored two goals in each outing, including snatching two at the City Ground during that 2-2 draw. 

All of the above, leads me to believe that the 11/4 on offer for Blackpool to beat Nottingham Forest in 90 minutes marks excellent value. This will be a far more equal encounter than the odds suggest and there’s no reason why the home side can’t shade it, given Forest are unlikely to have much stomach for a competition they don’t particularly want to be in at this moment in time. 

Check out our other Football Bet of the Day picks here.