Football Bet of the Day: Second string Man City could slip up

The Champions League returns to our screens on Wednesday night as the final round of group stage games takes place. It is Europe’s premier competition that takes our attention for Wednesday’s Football Bet of the Day, as Manchester City travel to Crvena zvezda. 

Manchester City have been in superb form in the Champions League so far, winning five out of their five group games. They’ve scored 15 goals across those games and look well set to defend their European crown this season. The odds on them to win this match and enjoy the perfect group stage are just 1/3, which shows how fancied they are here. 

However, in the reverse fixture, they only beat Crvena zvezda 3-1 at the Etihad, and that was a game they had to win. Having won five from five, top spot is secure and this is the only game that Pep Guardiola will be able to rest players in from now until the end of the year. He’s also without Erling Haaland and Jeremy Doku, while Kevin De Bruyne also remains absent. 

As a result, we could see a very different looking starting XI for City in Serbia. Stefan Ortega, Rico Lewis, Sergio Gomez, Kalvin Phillips and Oscar Bobb could all be given starts as Guardiola attempts to rest players ahead of a hectic Christmas schedule. There’s also the factor of motivation. 

City simply don’t need to win this game. They don't even need to draw it. It’s a complete waste of time and energy from their point of view. That will have an impact on how much they try and win this match, no matter how professional they want to come across. Meanwhile, Crvena zvezda are also guaranteed to finish bottom of the group, so they have nothing to play for - but their circumstances are slightly different. 

The club from the Serbian capital will want to give the European champions a bloody nose. This could be one of the most famous wins in their history if they pull it off, and in front of a partisan crowd, they will be well up for the fight. I can’t see this being a comfortable evening for the Citizens and as a result, backing Crvena zvezda with a +1 handicap makes sense to me, at a price of 11/5. 

Basically what that means is that we are backing the home side not to lose on the night. Given all the circumstances surrounding this game and City’s injury issues, the price of 11/5 is one I am happy to get on-board with.