Football Bet of the Day: Jordan to edge out Tajikistan again

It's slim pickings for value prices on the football on Thursday with the majority of games coming from AFC and CONCACAF World Cup 2026 qualifiers.

We go to Asia for my football bet of the day as Jordan welcome Tajikistan to the Amman International Stadium hoping to get the win they need to advance to the third round and automatically qualify for the 2027 AFC Asian Cup.

Jordan are currently second on seven points in AFC World Cup qualification Group G behind only Saudia Arabia (10 points) and in front of Tajikistan (five) and Pakistan (zero).

They started off slowly by drawing 1-1 with Tajikistan in Dushanbe last November and losing 2-0 to Saudi Arabia before dispatching Pakistan twice in the space of six days in March, beating them 3-0 in Islamabad and 7-0 in Amman.

It's a return to the Jordanian capital for them on Thursday as they host Tajikistan, who need to avoid defeat just to take qualification to the final day.

The Crowns collected four points from their opening two group games, thrashing Pakistan 6-1 in Islamabad after drawing with Jordan.

However, they were beaten 1-0 by Saudi Arabia in Al Bahah earlier this year and drew 1-1 with the same opponents five days later.

It has been an encouraging first half of the year for Tajikistan, however, as they reached the quarter-finals of the 2023 AFC Asian Cup in February.

The Crowns finished second in Group A, beating Lebanon 2-1 and drawing 0-0 with China - losing only to hosts Qatar (0-1) - to reach the round of 16, where they knocked out the United Arab Emirates on penalties.

Tajikistan came a cropper in the next round as they lost 1-0 to Jordan courtesy of a Vahdat Khanonov own-goal.

Jordan subsequently shocked South Korea in the semi-finals, winning 2-0 before being ousted 3-1 by Qatar in the final.

Naturally, supporters will expect the 2023 AFC Asian Cup runners-up to now qualify for the third stage of AFC World Cup qualification by beating Tajikistan at home on Thursday.

Tajikistan have done well in 2024, surpassing expectations at the Asian Cup, but in seven competitive matches this year they have only won once in regulation time and lost 1-0 to three of the continent's big-hitters - Qatar, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

Six of those games saw two or fewer goals scored including the last four, while three of Jordan's seven outings at this year's AFC Asian Cup ended with fewer than three goals.

The last four head-to-heads between Jordan and Tajikistan, dating back to February 2021, have seen exactly one or two goals scored, with the former winning two of them.

I can see another low-scoring contest on Thursday, but at home, I think Jordan will have enough to claim all three points to disappoint their opponents for a second time this year.

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 50% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down.

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