Football Bet of the Day: Venezuela up for El Alto altitude fight

Thursday's football bet of the day comes from South America as Bolivia host Venezuela in a 2026 World Cup qualifier at the Estadio Municipal de El Alto (21:00 BST).

After just six games played, there are already six points separating these sides in the table, but Bolivia have a trick up their sleeve ahead of this clash...will it pay dividends?

Bolivia vs Venezuela Odds

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Bolivia have finished second-bottom of all four South America World Cup qualification groups since coming bottom of the pile ahead of the 2006 tournament in Germany. La Verde last finished outside the bottom two in the 2002 World Cup qualification campaign, ending seventh out of their 10-team group.

Already, it looks like more of the same ahead of the 2026 World Cup as they sit ninth on three points after six games - only Peru (two points) are sparing the Bolivians' blushes so far.

Bolivia have lost against Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador, Paraguay and Uruguay so far, collecting their only points in a 2-0 victory over Peru in La Paz last November. They played five friendlies between March 22 and June 15, losing four and only beating European minnows Andorra 1-0 in Annaba, Algeria.

La Verde subsequently lost all three group games at the 2024 Copa America, failing to score against the USA (0-2) or Uruguay (0-5) before netting their only goal of the tournament against Panama (1-3).

After eight defeats in 10 games in charge, Brazilian Antonio Carlos Zago was replaced as head coach by Oscar Villegas, who will make his debut as national team manager against Venezuela on Thursday.

Venezuela enjoyed a much more positive Copa America in the USA, winning all three group games against Ecuador (2-1), Mexico (1-0) and Jamaica (3-0) before exiting the competition on penalties against Canada in the quarter-finals.

They've also started well in World Cup qualification, recovering from an opening 1-0 defeat to Colombia to embark on a five-match unbeaten run which has included a 1-1 draw with Brazil in Cuiaba. Ahead of Thursday's fixture, Venezuela are fourth in the standings on nine points, one ahead of Ecuador and two ahead of Brazil, although they are yet to win away, drawing 1-1 in Lima with Peru last time out in the group.

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Venezeula's task to claim a first victory on their travels has been further complicated by Conmebol granting Bolivia's request to move their home games away from the capital of La Paz and instead to El Alto, the second largest city in the country. So, what is the significance of this relocation?

Well, there were enough physical issues with playing in El Paz, which is 11,940ft above sea level. Now, Bolivia will be welcoming rivals to El Alto, which has an altitude of 13,615ft - not ideal conditions for visiting teams who will have to quickly adjust to the surroundings.

The move has been made to increase Bolivia's chances of winning games on home soil as they had won just one of their last seven home internationals. Villegas has already declared his intention to exploit the altitude advantage, picking a squad in which 80 per cent of the players are used to the thinner air, including six from Always Ready, a club in El Alto, and six more from Bolivar in La Paz.

It has been common knowledge for years that playing in Bolivia was difficult, but countries were starting to adapt and find ways to get past their hosts. Now, they will find life even tougher.

However, I believe Venezuela have the wherewithal to escape from El Alto with a point at the very least. Fernando Batista's side are unbeaten in regulation time in their last five games and haven't suffered a competitive defeat in their last nine. They beat Bolivia 4-1 in their most recent head-to-head in January 2022, albeit in more familiar surroundings of Barinas, and are enjoying a renaissance of sorts after finishing bottom of the South American pile in the last qualification campaign.

Among their defenders is Real Sociedad's Jon Aramburu, who started his club side's last La Liga game against Getafe last Sunday, while the likes of Yangel Herrera (Girona), Jose Martinez (Corinthians) and Cristian Casseres (Toulouse) provide terrific protection in the middle of midfield. The attacking quality, meanwhile, comes from Yeferson Soteldo (Gremio), Jefferson Savarino (Botafogo) and vice-captain Solomon Rondon.

Rondon has scored in his last three internationals and will pose big problems to the Bolivian defence on Thursday.

Even if the former West Brom, Newcastle and Everton striker fails to fire, or indeed any of his teammates, I'm backing the Venezuelan defence to come up trumps with a clean sheet. Bolivia have blanked in four of their last six matches and can no longer rely on recently retired record scorer Marcelo Moreno. Without him, Bolivia look light in attack, and even the added altitude may not help them to score on Thursday.

A low-scoring Venezuela win, or a goalless draw, looks like the way to go in El Alto.

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