Football Bet of the Day: 11/1 shot for Championship final day

The finale of the Championship takes centre stage on Saturday lunchtime (12:30), as Sky Sports show three key games at the top and bottom of the table. Ipswich Town and Leeds United are battling it out for the final automatic promotion spot, although the Tractor Boys only need a point to secure their return to the top flight after 22 years away.

In the relegation scrap, Birmingham City need a win at home to Norwich City to haul themselves away from danger, while Plymouth Argyle host Hull City, with the home side also at risk of the drop. Below we’ve picked out a slightly different Football Bet of the Day, for Saturday, May 4. 

A different selection for us to consider on the final day of the second tier season, but one I feel offers excellent value. Before all of the players head to luxury resorts all around the world, they have to produce one final time, and as a consequence we are likely to see several goals in the division. 

For one reason or another, the final day of the season in the Championship tends to produce more goals, and more entertaining encounters than it does across the rest of the campaign. That isn’t just a ‘feeling’ either, it is backed up by the statistics. Last season, the average goals per game was 2.42, but in the final round of fixtures, it was 2.50 - and that even included two 0-0 draws! 

In 2021/22, the average goals went up from 2.50 goals per game to 2.58 on the final day. The year before, it went from 2.31 goals up to 4.00. This has been a trend for the past six seasons in a row, with most years seeing a significant increase of over 0.5 goals per game. 

I love little footballing quirks like this, and although we could get a far greater return for every game to have over 2.5 goals, it’s far less likely to come in. This selection makes a lot of sense given that out of 540 games played in the Championship this season, 404 of them, or 74.8%, have seen over 1.5 goals scored. 

I also believe the specific fixtures will help us out here. Even Rotherham vs Cardiff, with nothing riding on it, could see goals as the Millers have conceded 87 goals this term, but now have Steve Evans at the helm to give them some attacking thrust. Middlesbrough, Coventry,  Southampton, Huddersfield, Swansea, Rotherham, Norwich and Ipswich all sit above the 80% mark in terms of success rate for over 1.5 goals, which means four out of every five of their fixtures they are involved in end with at least two goals. 

The one game to be wary of is Stoke vs Bristol City, given the Robins sit at the bottom of this particular statistic, as 60% of their matches this season have ended over 1.5 goals. However, Stoke have turned a corner recently and both teams will want to finish on a high. I also believe there is enough attacking ability on both sides to score goals, and managing a couple between them shouldn’t be too difficult. 

I’m delighted with this exciting selection. Bring on the goals!

Check out our other Football Bet of the Day Tips here.