Bayern Munich vs PSG Prediction: Back the Betfred boost on the Bavarians

Two powerhouses of modern-day European football will tussle it out at the Allianz Arena on Tuesday (20:00, TNT Sports 2) as Bayern Munich host Paris Saint-Germain in the Uefa Champions League. Both clubs have made awkward starts to their league phase campaign, losing half (two) of their first four games, but the Germans are currently two points ahead of their French counterparts after winning the other two.

Read on for my Bayern Munich vs PSG prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this first-time meeting between managers Vincent Kompany and Luis Enrique.

Team News

Joao Palhinha and Hiroki Ito are both out injured for Bayern Munich, who could also be missing 19-year-old French forward Mathys Tel after he was forced to skip their 3-0 win over Augsburg last Friday.

Aleksandar Pavlovic and Josip Stanisic are back in training for Kompany's side but late decisions are likely to be made over their availability.

Kompany could name an unchanged starting XI for the visit of the reigning Ligue 1 champions but Konraid Laimer, Leroy Sane, Serge Gnabry, Thomas Muller and Sacha Boey are among those looking to push their way into contention.

Football Odds

The big news for PSG supporters is that defender Presnel Kimpembe is in the squad for the first time since 2022. The 29-year-old spent over 400 days out of action due to a serious Achilles tendon rupture but is back available for selection now, although his minutes are sure to be managed carefully and any playing time on Tuesday is likely to be minimal.

Goncalo Ramos is also back in the squad after an ankle injury kept him sidelined since August. Lucas Hernandez and Senny Mayulu remain out, however.

Club captain Marquinhos is set to return to action after serving a suspension in Friday's 3-0 victory over Toulouse. Brazilian centre-back Lucas Beraldo scored the Parisians' second of the night but could lose his place to his countryman on Tuesday, while his partner at the Parc des Princes last week, Milan Skriniar, may also drop out for Ecuadorian defender Willian Pacho.

Vitinha came off the bench to finish off the scoring last Friday and should start at the Allianz Arena this week, while Italian goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma is set to replace Matvey Safonov between the sticks after being dropped from the starting XI against Toulouse.

Bayern Munich vs PSG Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Bayern Munich vs PSG page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Bayern are 8/15 to record back-to-back Champions League victories after beating Benfica 1-0 last time out at the Allianz Arena. Those odds give the German giants an implied win probability of 65.2%, while PSG are 9/2, or an 18.2% chance, to respond to their defeat last time out in the competition at home to Atletico Madrid (1-2) with a victory in Munich.

The draw is priced at 7/2, both teams to score at 8/15, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/9.

Harry Kane, who hit a hat-trick in the Bundesliga against Augsburg last Friday, is 5/6 favourite in the anytime goalscorer market, and 100/30 to fire first on Tuesday. Bradley Barcola, who has scored 10 goals in 12 Ligue 1 appearances this term, is highest in both markets for PSG at 5/2 and 9/1, respectively.

Price Boosts - Bayern Munich to Win & Both Teams to Score @ 6/4 7/4

Bayern kicked off their European campaign with a 9-2 hammering of Dinamo Zagreb at the Allianz Arena on September 17, but after back-to-back defeats away to Aston Villa (1-0) and Barcelona (4-1), serious questions marks were being asked of Kompany and his coaching team. They got back on track at home to Benfica last time out in the competition, beating the Portuguese giants 1-0, and have now won their last six games - one in the Champions League, four in the Bundesliga and one in the DFB-Pokal - without conceding a goal.

PSG should provide a much sterner test than the likes of St. Pauli or Augsburg have provided in recent weeks, however. The Ligue 1 leaders are in fine form domestically, taking 32 points from 36 available to them so far in France, and have scored in three of their four Champions League contests to this point, only failing to fire away to Arsenal in a 2-0 defeat.

Worryingly, though, Luis Enrique's side have won just once in the league phase, and that was their opening game of the campaign at home to Girona, who they beat 1-0 at the Parc des Princes on September 18. Since then, they've lost at the Emirates Stadium, been held to a 1-1 draw at home by PSV, and suffered a 2-1 defeat in Paris to Atletico Madrid. With just four games remaining, PSG need to start picking up points - and fast.

A draw wouldn't be the end of the world for the Parisians but with away fixtures against Red Bull Salzburg and Stuttgart either side of a home game with reigning Premier League champions Manchester City to come, they could really do with claiming all three points on Tuesday. Unfortunately for them, I don't think that will happen, and they will do well to come away with anything from Bavaria.

Bayern have won six of their seven home games under Kompany, only being held by last season's Bundesliga winners Bayer Leverkusen (1-1) on September 28. Both of their defeats under the Belgian have come away from the Allianz Arena, in England and Spain, so they should be confident of emerging victorious from this week's contest which is important as they are currently three points behind eighth-placed Aston Villa who, as it stands, would qualify directly for the last 16 of the competition, negating the need for a play-off.

PSG have only been kept out by one team this season - Arsenal - so I rate their chances of at least finding the net in Munich, despite Bayern's recent clean sheet run. However, the home side's firepower should see them through in this one, so take the German giants to win and both teams to score at an enhanced price of 7/4 with Betfred.

Player to Receive a Card - Warren Zaire-Emery (PSG) @ 4/1

Bayern's left-hand side on Tuesday could feature Alphonse Davies and Kingsley Coman, two players who have regularly linked up over the years to cause the opposition nightmares. Davies, in particular, has come in for some rough treatment in this season's Champions League, being fouled exactly twice in all four games against Dinamo Zagreb, Aston Villa, Barcelona and Benfica.

Coman has only started once, against Aston Villa, and has only been fouled once - in Barcelona - but was fouled, on average, 1.6 times per game in the 2023/24 Champions League, and 1.7 times per game in the campaign prior. There's also the possibility of Jamal Musiala starting on the left instead of Coman, or at least moving from a central position during the match and taking on defenders from the left-hand side. The 21-year-old is another tricky customer having been fouled three times in his last European appearance against Benfica.

Considering the above, PSG right-back Achraf Hakimi is the obvious candidate to be booked for the French side on Tuesday as he is most likely to come into direct contact with each of Davies, Coman and Musiala. However, at 23/10 to receive a card, I think there is better value to be had in the market.

Teenager Warren Zaire-Emery is someone to consider for a caution, in my opinion. The Frenchman is yet to be booked in this season's Champions League but is averaging a foul per game in the competition, making one against each of Girona and Arsenal before conceding two free-kicks to PSV and keeping it clean last time out against Atletico Madrid.

He's already been booked twice in Ligue 1 this term, including in PSG's last away outing at Angers on November 9. Zaire-Emery also committed two fouls on the weekend, the same number as Hakimi who was yellow-carded in the same game to draw him level with the 18-year-old on two league cautions.

With both Hakimi and Zaire-Emery on two bookings this season, I think we're getting great value on the latter to receive a card at 4/1. Zaire-Emery tends to operate from the right-hand side of a midfield trio, meaning he does a lot of his defensive work from wide areas, applying pressure on the opposition's left-back and left-winger - likely to be Davies and Coman on Tuesday.

The PSG player will be tasked with supporting Hakimi in Bavaria, particularly with Ousmane Dembele in front of them not particularly known for his defensive diligence. As such, Zaire-Emery should be heavily involved at the Allianz Arena and may make a foul or two, putting him at risk of a yellow at the very least.

Offers

Place an In-Play single bet of £10 or more at odds of 1/2+ on any Champions League or Championship game on Tuesday and get £5 in Free Bets to use In-Play on Wednesday’s games. (Credited upon Bet Settlement)

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