Bayer Leverkusen vs Roma Prediction: No shocks in the BayArena

TNT Sports 2 is the place to be for those looking to see if Xabi Alonso can break the all-time unbeaten record in top-flight European football as his side just need to avoid defeat to Roma to set the mark. The game will kick-off at 20:00 on Thursday evening.

The tie itself looks done and dusted as the German side are taking back to two-goal lead from the first leg in Rome. Can the Italian side pull off the stunning comeback? Daniele Fisichella previews this one for us and gives us his best Bayer Leverkusen vs Roma predictions in the process...

The hosts have virtually qualified for the final in Dublin after a resounding 2-0 win. A week ago, they produced another confident display and demonstrated why they’ve been so dominant in the Bundesliga this season.

Roma did everything they possibly could and even had a couple of chances of taking the lead.

But after conceding the first goal, due to Rick Karsdorp defensive blunder, the Giallorossi lost confidence and now have a mountain to climb if they want to reach their third consecutive European final.

“When a man with a .45 meets a man with a rifle, the man with a pistol will be a dead man,” was the famous quote of Sergio Leone’s spaghetti western ‘A Fistful of Dollars’ starring Clint Eastwood.

And last Thursday, the bigger weapon was clearly in Bayer Leverkusen’s hands.

Karsdorp’s ill-judged back pass that allowed Álex Grimaldo to square the ball for Florian Wirtz summarized the two clubs’ gulf in quality.

Even with more than an hour left to play, Roma, who had shown a combative spirit in the beginning and hit the bar with Lukaku, understood their fourth defeat under Daniele De Rossi was inevitable.

Xabi Alsonso knew it was always going to be tough to win at the ‘Stadio Olimpico’ where the Giallorossi hadn’t lost a European knockout tie since 2017.

Therefore the Spanish manager decided to tweak his formation, leaving out both centre-forwards, Boniface and Shick, on the bench.

Wirtz, playing as false-nine, managed to pull Chris Smalling out of position and allowed Adli and Frimpong to run free in Roma’s defensive third.

Tammy Abraham’s open-goal miss in stoppage time could have changed the narrative of the second-leg, but the overall impression is that the German champions are simply a class above Roma.

Alonso and his men seem destined to end the season unbeaten and Thursday’s game is another step towards legendary status.

Team News:

Alonso made a large turnover at the weekend in the Bundesliga and will switch back to his trusted 3-4-3 formation. Kovar will be defending the Germans’ goal, the defensive trio will be made up of Stanisic, replacing Hincapiè, Tah and Tapsoba.

Nigerian striker Boniface might play up front from the first minute in place of Adli.

Daniele De Rossi can count on right-back Celik, returning from suspension. The Turkish international will complete the back four with Mancini, Smalling and Spinazzola.

No other changes from the starting XI that lost the first leg with Paredes, Cristante and Pellegrini playing in the middle

Dybala El Shaarawy and Lukaku will be up front. Tammy Abraham will, once again, start on the bench.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Roma Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Bayer Leverkusen vs Roma market page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

The hosts are huge favourite to win (1 /2) also the second leg of the semi-final. Thanks to their 5-1 success over Eintracht Frankfurt on Sunday, Bayer Leverkusen have remained unbeaten in 48 games this season in all competitions, equalling Benfica’s record between December 1963 and February 1965.

It was not an easy task, considering this was only Frankfurt’s second defeat in their previous 26 Bundesliga matches at home, but nothing seems impossible for Xabi Alsono’s men.

The draw (7/2), which will see the German club reaching their third European finals, after the ones they played in 1987/1988 and 2000/2001, pays well but as much as an unlikely Roma victory (5/1).

Last season’s 0-0 was enough for the Giallorossi to qualify for the Europa League final, but the visitors have only won one of the last five games and have not kept a clean sheet in six matches.

Goals are expected at the BayArena, in fact the hosts have been involved in 20 home games with at least three goals this season.

Over 2.5 pays 4/6, whereas the odds for the Under 2.5 are 11/10 as five out of six Roma’s away matches in the Europa League have produced two goals or less.

Both Teams To Score – Yes @ 4/5

Xabi Alonso’s side has now scored 134 goals this season.

Realistically the visitors need at least three goals to take this tie to extra time. If there’s a silver lining for Roma is that the hosts have only kept once clean sheet in the last five games.

But, given the way Leverkusen consistently delivered all season, it’s unlikely they’ll stumble in front of their fans.

In the first leg, Roma rightly went toe-to-toe with the Bundesliga champions but suffered from Paulo Dybala’s poor form on the night.

The Argentine ended up playing too far away from goal and Romelu Lukaku was left isolated to battle against Tah and Tapsoba.

Given the turnover he did last Sunday against Juventus, and Dybala’s substitution after 45 minutes, Daniele De Rossi clearly still believes in the ‘remontada’.

Bayer Leverkusen and Over 2.5 Goals @ 6/5

Qualification to the final is not in doubt, but perhaps most importantly, the hosts are an inch closer to making history by establishing the all-time unbeaten record.

The visitors have only lost one of the previous 10 away games in all competitions, but have only won two out of five Europa League games on the road this season (against Sheriff Tiraspol and AC Milan).

Roma looked tired at the weekend against Juventus and have failed to keep a clean sheet in the previous six games. Nothing suggests the game will be a cagey one and Leverkusen have shown all their superiority in the first leg.

Daniele Fisichella primary covers Italian Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out all of his Football Betting Tips, along with those of the other writers here on the site on our main Football page...