Barcelona vs Getafe Prediction: Back the home side to pepper Getafe’s goal

A good start to the season has brightened the feeling around Barcelona and they have a very winnable game on Wednesday evening (20:00, Premier Sports 1).

Our La Liga expert Mark Sochon previews the match and picks out his two Best Bets with the home side expected to be on the front foot. You can check out his Barcelona vs Getafe Predictions along with his full match preview here at Betfred Insights...

It's been four years since we've had a genuine title race in La Liga, but Hansi Flick's immediate impact at Barcelona suggests this season is shaping up to be very different.  

Barça made it six wins from six in the Spanish top flight this term on Sunday, cruising to a 5-1 victory at Villarreal. While their hosts did have three goals disallowed in a predictably open contest, it was another potentially major test passed with flying colours as the Flick honeymoon period rolls on.  

The Catalan giants have scored 16 goals in their last three league outings alone. That's all the more impressive given they also have by far La Liga's longest injury list.  

Flick had largely resisted the urge to rest players until Sunday's trip to the Estadio de la Cerámica which came less than 72 hours on from a difficult Champions League night in Monaco where they battled on with 10 men for 80 minutes. However, he made changes at the weekend with youngsters Sergi Domínguez, Gerard Martín and Pablo Torre coming into the side and coping pretty well with a tough fixture against what was an unbeaten Villarreal side heading into the game.  

There are still a number of senior Barcelona players who are surely in need of a rest heading into this one, with three more matches following it to squeeze in before the October international break. 

Iñigo Martínez, Jules Koundé, Raphinha, Lamine Yamal and Robert Lewandowski have started all seven of the club's competitive fixtures this term. Flick could use this relatively favourable home fixture to give at least a couple of those players a breather, but injury problems mean he'll again need to make use of the latest batch of graduates from La Masia. 

On paper, a home game against Getafe shouldn't be a big challenge for this free-scoring Barcelona side. The visitors are one of just two remaining winless teams in La Liga so far this term, and they've won just one of their last 15 league fixtures overall. 

However, it's rarely as simple as that against a team coached by Pepe Bordalás. Despite offering very little goal threat, Getafe are still capable of being awkward opponents and they do have the joint third-best defensive record in La Liga, with only five goals conceded in six matches. 

They head into this on the back of the South Madrid derby against newly promoted Leganés. It was a tight affair which only really burst into life in the latter stages with the visitors taking the lead via a set piece goal from Jorge Sáenz, only for Getafe to salvage a point from the penalty spot in the 83rd minute. 

Substitute Borja Mayoral got that goal and his return following six months on the sidelines is a major boost for his struggling side. The 27-year-old was on 15 goals and in serious contention for the Pichichi Trophy when he succumbed to injury back in March. 

Getafe would only score six times in their final 11 league fixtures last term without Mayoral which highlights just how dependent they are on the former Real Madrid youth team player for goals. 

Team News: 

Barcelona's weekend victory did come at a significant cost, with Marc-André ter Stegen suffering a serious knee injury which could potentially see the German keeper miss the remainder of the campaign. A move for a free agent is possible as Flick seeks cover in the position, but Iñaki Peña will take over between the sticks in this match and for the foreseeable future. With Ronald Araújo, Gavi, Frenkie de Jong, Marc Bernal, Dani Olmo, Andreas Christensen and Fermín López already on the sidelines, it was the last thing that Barcelona needed. 

Some light rotation is also expected from the hosts here with Alejandro Balde, Pau Cubarsí and Marc Casadó expected to return following weekend rests. Ferran Torres may also come into the side following suspension. 

As for Getafe, Bordalás will be weighing up whether to use Mayoral off the bench again, or throw him into the eleven. His attacking options are limited by an injury to Real Madrid loanee Alvaro Rodríguez. 

Nabil Aberdin is also missing for the visitors who are expected to set up very cautiously with a back five as they bid to stifle the home team's considerable attacking threat. 

Barcelona vs Getafe Odds

Barcelona head into this match as the 1/4 favourites to extend their 100% start to La Liga. You can back Getafe to record a shock win at 11/1, while the Draw is priced at 5/1. 

For bigger returns on the hosts, you can back Barcelona -1.00 Handicap at 7/10, while the Catalans are available at 9/5 with a -2.00 Handicap, a winning bet in each of their last three league games. 

Given the high scoring nature of their matches this term, going with Barça and Both teams to score at 15/8 may appeal. Punters will need to factor in the limited goal threat of this Getafe side though and there is also the option of going with the hosts to win to nil at 10/11. 

The potential for rotation means there could be value in some of the less obvious options in the goalscorer markets. Robert Lewandowski is the 8/11 favourite to score anytime, but Ferran Torres could be worth considering at 7/4 while youngster Pablo Torre is priced at 12/5 to build on his weekend goal by scoring again here. 

From a Getafe perspective, Borja Mayoral is 100/30 to score anytime, while Chrisantus Uche, who has featured as an emergency striker this term, is available at 6/1 to get on the scoresheet.  

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Bet 1 - Barcelona & Under 3.5 goals @ 1/1

Barcelona's last two league games have been against fairly attack-minded Girona and Villarreal sides, but this is likely to be a very different type of challenge against a Getafe outfit that will almost certainly park the bus and try to make it as difficult as possible for the home team to break them down.  

That has been the trend in recent meetings, with three of the last five ending goalless. Getafe didn't score in any of those five most recent clashes and on current form, it's hard to see them doing any better here. 

The quality of the home team should tell over the course of 90 minutes, but we may see Flick's side look to manage their energy levels slightly and I can't see as many fireworks in this match, so I'm going with Barcelona and Under 3.5 goals at Evens. 

Bet 2 - Barcelona over 17.5 shots & Barcelona over 4.5 corners @ 10/11

With what may be a flat back five, Getafe are likely to defend in numbers which could frustrate their hosts to some extent and potentially force them into taking more shots from range.  

The visitors will be expecting to have to sustain periods of heavy pressure and I'd expect the shot and corner counts to grow quickly for the home team, even if they struggle to score as many goals as they've managed in recent fixtures. 

Flick's team average 18.8 shots and 6.3 corners per game in La Liga this term and I'm using the Bet Builder to back Barcelona over 17.5 shots and Barcelona over 4.5 corners at 10/11 here. 

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...