Barcelona vs Espanyol Prediction: Barca to delight on derby day

It’s derby day in Barcelona on Sunday, with an afternoon kick-off (15:15) at the Estadi Olímpic as Espanyol take on the La Liga leaders.

Read on for our Spanish football guru Mark Sochon's Barcelona vs Espanyol predictions - including the latest odds and team news.

Estadi Olímpic has hosted many clashes between Catalonia’s two biggest clubs, although usually with Espanyol as the home team.

This was their stadium between 1997 and 2009, before their move to a shiny new arena on the outskirts of the city. However, it has been home to Barca since the beginning of last season due to reconstruction work at Camp Nou.

There’s not much love for the venue from either side of the Derbi Barceloní divide in truth, but it has certainly been a happy home for Hansi Flick’s side this term. It’s six wins from six home games for them in all competitions, with 24 goals scored along the way.

They’d been easily putting a relatively modest set of visiting teams to the sword, before really underlining the progress that has been made with a thumping 4-1 victory over Bayern Munich in the Champions League in their most recent home outing.

If that wasn’t enough to convince their remaining doubters, a 4-0 victory at the Santiago Bernabeu in El Clasico last weekend surely was. While Real Madrid did create chances and looked the more threatening side before the break, Barcelona were absolutely outstanding in the second half.

With Frenkie de Jong introduced at the interval to partner an impressive Marc Casado in midfield, the visitors took control in the centre of the pitch and the excellent service to their in-form forward line ensured that the visitors got in behind the home defence again and again, with four unanswered goals.

Perhaps the most remarkable thing about the Clasico was not Barcelona’s attacking display, but just how effective their offside trap was. A disciplined visiting back four pushed up and managed to catch Kylian Mbappe offside on a ridiculous eight occasions - the highest number for any player in a single La Liga match in the past 10 seasons.

One week on, it’s fair to say that Espanyol don’t have quite the same level of quality up front, but they will also most likely look to exploit Barça’s high line with quick breaks whenever they can get the ball off their neighbours.

The newly-promoted side have lost five of their last six in La Liga, with 4-1 away defeats against Real Madrid and Athletic Club during that period. Only two teams have let in more goals than Manolo Gonzalez’s side, so they’ll be well aware of what a difficult afternoon this could turn into against a team that is surely playing the best football in Europe right now.

Espanyol would have been anticipating a struggle this term. Having come up via the Segunda Division play-offs, they were severely restricted by a bleak financial situation in the summer which meant their only permanent addition was right-back Alvaro Tejero, who joined on a free transfer from second-tier Eibar.

Given that, they’ll probably be somewhat content with a return of 10 points from 11 matches so far. That leaves them hovering above the relegation zone for now, but with all three of their victories coming at home, they’ve only picked up one point on their travels and that was quite a fortuitous draw against Atletico Madrid.

While the formbook supposedly goes out the window on derby day, punters would be wise not to totally disregard it here. The gulf in quality between the two teams in the Catalan capital is enormous and this has historically been a very one-sided rivalry.

Despite that, passions can still run high in this fixture and this is the first meeting since a 4-2 Barça victory at the RCDE Stadium in May last year. That result sealed the 2022/23 title for what was then Xavi’s side, and the celebrations of the visiting players sparked ugly scenes, with many Espanyol supporters invading the pitch.

Team News

There are no fresh injury problems for Barcelona, but Flick is still missing Marc-Andre ter Stegen, Ronald Araujo, Ferran Torres, Andreas Christensen, Eric Garcia and Marc Bernal.

After a rare free midweek, he’s not expected to change much from El Clasico. The most likely alteration may be the return of De Jong in place of Fermin Lopez in midfield. Dani Olmo is also fit again and will be hungry to play having made a big impact in his opening appearances, but Flick may be reluctant to drop Casado who created goals against both Bayern and Real Madrid.

As for Espanyol, they have four confirmed absentees as they bid to end a 15-year wait for an away derby win. Fernando Calero, Edu Exposito, Pol Lozano and Jose Gragera are the injured quartet.

They went 4-4-2 in their last league game, a 2-0 home defeat against Sevilla, but a switch to three centre-backs is likely here. They may seek to play on the break with Javi Puado and Tottenham loanee Alejo Veliz, who scored a Copa del Rey hat-trick on Thursday, likely to provide their main goal threat.

Barcelona vs Espanyol Odds

Given the way they are playing, it’s little surprise to see Barcelona priced as big 1/9 favourites to win this match. The draw is priced at 17/2, while you can back an unlikely Espanyol victory at 18/1.

For bigger returns on the hosts, you can back Barcelona and over 3.5 goals at 4/6 - a winning bet in four of their last five matches. Barcelona and both teams to score is priced at 23/20, while you can back the home team to score over 3.5 goals at 1/1.

If you see the visitors being competitive, you can get odds of 9/10 for Espanyol with a +3 handicap, while Espanyol or Draw is 5/1 in the Double Chance market.

Cards could also be worth exploiting, given the last six derbies have produced eight reds, four for each side, and 36 yellows. You can back over 57.5 booking points at 8/11, while over 62.5 is 6/5.

Anyone betting on Barcelona games in recent weeks won’t have gone too far wrong backing Robert Lewandowski to score first. The striker has netted the opening goal in six of his last eight club appearances and he’s priced at 12/5 to do likewise here.

You can also bet Lewandowski to score anytime at 2/5, while the in-form Raphinha is 10/11 to get on the scoresheet. Javi Puado is often Espanyol’s biggest goal threat and he’s 16/5 to net at anytime.

Barcelona -2 handicap @ 4/5

Having brushed aside Bayern and Real Madrid so emphatically in their last two games, Barcelona shouldn’t really have any trouble doing likewise against their newly-promoted neighbours.

While football isn’t always that simple, they are playing with so much confidence and quality in the final third right now that anything other than a convincing home win would be a big surprise here.

Despite the uneven nature of the rivalry, Barcelona players and supporters alike still relish any opportunity to pile on the punishment for Espanyol. They are also in a position to name a much stronger bench now than was possible earlier in the campaign, so even if we do get second half-changes, they are still likely to boss the game and chase goals.

Given all the above, I’m backing Barcelona with a -2 handicap.

Lamine Yamal 1+ assists @ 6/4

While Lamine Yamal’s finishing ability is improving, he still feels like a player that is more likely to create goals than score them, but that doesn’t tend to be reflected in the odds.

Since making his debut for Barcelona, he has more assists than goals in La Liga and the 17-year-old has already set up six in the league this term.

In Champions League and international action for Spain, that tally is also higher than his goal tally and he has registered an impressive 12 assists for club and country since the start of Euro 2024.

In another fixture where Barcelona have the potential to score freely, I’m backing the youngster to record one or more assists.

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