Barcelona vs Bayern Munich Prediction: Raphinha at 9/5 to score anytime is value

The two Spanish giants have had the plumb fixtures in the Champions League this midweek and for Barcelona, they get Bayern Munich after their rivals Real Madrid faced off against Borussia Dortmund on Tuesday evening.

Our Spanish Football expert Mark Sochon previews this tie, which will be live on TNT Sports 5 and will kick-off at 20:00 on Wednesday. Check out his thoughts as he takes us through his Barcelona vs Bayern Munich Predictions...

European giants Barcelona and Bayern Munich meet on Wednesday in a fixture that may just be the biggest so far in this season’s Champions League. 

One of the reasons for this new league format, according to UEFA, was to produce more matches between the continent’s elite clubs in the opening phase of the competition. They’ve certainly got their wish this week with Spain’s big two facing off against the two largest clubs in Germany, but it’s not as though meetings between Barça and Bayern have been infrequent in recent years. 

There have been five Champions League meetings in the 2020s already. The Bavarians won the lot, scoring 19 goals in the process and conceding only twice. That includes the infamous 8-2 game in a 2020 quarter-final which ranks as the darkest night in Barcelona’s European history. 

In the dugout that evening for Bayern, who would go on to win the competition that year, was Hansi Flick while Robert Lewandowski led the line and perhaps surprisingly only scored one of the eight goals. 

Fast forward four years and both are now firmly in the Barcelona camp heading into this fixture, hoping to inflict some damage on their former employers, and at the very least stop the rot as far as Barça’s miserable recent record in this fixture goes. 

This is the biggest test of the Flick reign to date, but so far he has had a real impact in the Catalan capital, breathing fresh life into a team that stumbled through a trophyless 2023/24 season. 

It’s nine wins out of 10 for Barça in La Liga, with their 5-1 demolition of Sevilla at the weekend the latest in a series of one-sided victories. They’ve won their five home games in all competitions so far this term, scoring 20 goals in the process. 

While injuries have forced changes in midfield and in goal, Flick has at least had a settled back four, while wingers Lamine Yamal and Raphinha have shone either side of the prolific Robert Lewandowski in attack. The Polish striker couldn’t take any better form into a reunion with the club he represented for eight years, having scored 14 in 12 matches so far this term. 

Meanwhile, it’s 13 in 10 Bayern appearances for Harry Kane who has essentially taken over Lewandowski’s throne as the most destructive striker in the Bundesliga since his 2023 transfer from Tottenham. 

Inevitably, comparisons between the two will feature heavily in the buildup and analysis of this game. Statistically, Kane has certainly been more than a match for the immense contribution Lewandowski made during his long stay in Munich, but he won’t need reminding that major trophies continue to elude him after Bayer Leverkusen swept up the major prizes in Germany last term. 

As brilliant as he has been overall, Kane has faced criticism in the German media in recent weeks over an alleged inability to deliver when it matters most, in the biggest of games. This fixture certainly provides the England striker with a timely opportunity to silence his doubters. 

Bayern don’t take great form into this match having won just one of their last four matches, putting an end to their impressive start under Vincent Kompany. They were beaten 1-0 away against Aston Villa on matchday two in the league phase of this competition, but did put in their best performance for several weeks on Saturday, thrashing a strong Stuttgart side 4-0 with Kane scoring his third hat-trick of the season. 

Given Barcelona have also already suffered a defeat in this competition, losing their opening game in Monaco, there’s a degree of pressure on both sides which only adds to the importance of this heavyweight clash at the Estadi Olímpic.  

Team News:  

Barcelona will be missing Marc-André ter Stegen, Ronald Araújo, Ferrán Torres and Marc Bernal due to injury. Andreas Christensen and Eric García are closer to fitness, but the game may also come too soon for them.  

Midfielders Gavi and Fermín López both featured off the bench at the weekend after injury lay-offs, with Fermín more likely to be considered ready to start this game. Frenkie de Jong and Dani Olmo were unused subs against Sevilla following issues of their own which suggests they won’t be starters against Bayern.  

As for the visitors, young star Jamal Musiala is their most notable injury doubt heading into this match, although the Germany international has returned to training this week.  

Josip Stanisic, Sacha Boey and Aleksandar Pavlovic are also out, with the latter suffering a broken collarbone in the very early stages of the Stuttgart game on Saturday. Former Fulham midfielder Joao Palhinha is his most likely replacement.  

Barcelona vs Bayern Munich Odds

Despite their shocking recent record in this fixture, Barcelona come into the match as the 11/8 favourites. Bayern are priced at 13/8 to collect all the points, while you can back the Draw at 3/1.  

When you convert these prices into implied odds, our traders think Barca have a 42% chance of winning, a 38% chance of losing and the draw comes in as a 25% shot.

With both sides scoring freely and keen to play positive football, the expectation is that we’ll get goals. Both teams to score is short at 1/3, while you can back Both teams to score 2 or more goals at 7/4.  

Over 3.5 goals is available at 5/6. Barcelona and Over 2.5 goals is priced at 9/5, with the Catalans also on offer at 9/4 in the Match result and Both teams to score market.  

On the other hand, if you fancy history to repeat itself on Wednesday night, Bayern are available at 6/1 to win to nil, a winning bet in each of the last four meetings.  

As for the duel between two of the world’s best number nines, Robert Lewandowski is priced at 4/1 to score the opening goal for the fifth time in six Barça matches. He’s 1/1 to score anytime, while Barcelona to win, Lewandowski 3+ shots on target and Both teams to score is boosted to 8/1.  

Harry Kane is on offer at 11/10 to score anytime. You can also take advantage of a price boost to 4/1 for Lewandowski and Kane both to score anytime.  

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Bet 1 - Over 1.5 Barcelona goals & Both teams to score @ 17/20  

Barcelona are a much improved side from the one that last faced Bayern two years ago and having Flick in the dugout this time, should also help overcome one or two psychological demons when it comes to facing this opposition.  

The Catalans are looking confident and really threatening in attack with Lamine Yamal, who had only just turned 13 when the 8-2 match took place, already a difference maker at the very highest level.  

That points to a potentially very different outcome this time, but Bayern are still a really dangerous attacking unit themselves and I’m using the Bet Builder to back Over 1.5 Barcelona goals and Both teams to score at 17/20.  

Bet 2 - Raphinha to score anytime @ 9/5  

While the inevitable focus will be on the two strikers in this game, and perhaps Barcelona’s 17-year-old superstar on the right flank, it could be the opposite side of the pitch that proves decisive in determining the outcome. 

Bayern have big problems at right-back with their two recognised options in the position both missing due to injury. Raphaël Guerreiro may fill in, but he’s not a natural in the role, so that may see the home team look to get their left winger Raphinha on the ball as much as possible. 

The Brazilian is having an exceptional season and has scored six times already for his club. He has also tended to enjoy these Champions League nights, netting against Young Boys three weeks ago, while he scored three goals across the two legs against PSG in the quarter-final last term. 

Given that, I’m backing Raphinha to score anytime at 9/5 here. 

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's Football Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights writers on our Football home page...