Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Simeone’s side to show usual aggression

Barcelona and Atletico Madrid both beat La Liga opposition to reach the Copa del Rey semi-finals. Barca thrashed Valencia 5-0 at the Mestalla in the quarter-finals and at the same stage, Atletico beat Getafe by the same scoreline at the Metropolitano.

The first leg of this final-four tie takes place at the Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys on Tuesday (20:30, Premier Sports 2) and you can build up to the action by checking out my Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid predictions below.

Team News

Ronald Araujo has remained rooted to the bench for three of Barcelona's last four matches and the Uruguayan centre-back hasn't made a start since the 1-0 win over Alaves on February 2. He's expected to return to the starting XI on Tuesday, though, in front of goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny and between full-backs Jules Kounde and Alejandro Balde.

Pau Cubarsi and Eric Garcia were the central defensive partnership for Saturday's 2-0 win at Las Palmas; Garcia is expected to drop out of the line-up for the visit of Atletico with Cubarsi looking to get the nod ahead of Inigo Martinez next to Araujo.

In midfield, Pedri is expected to start again, but Fermin Lopez and Marc Casado could be relegated to the bench in favour of Frenkie de Jong and Dani Olmo.

Ferran Torres did his chances of earning a promotion no harm by netting as a late substitute on Saturday but a front line of Robert Lewandowski, Raphinha and Lamine Yamal is a hard one to break into and the trio are likely to get the nod again here.

Marc-Andre ter Stegen, Marc Bernal (both knee) and Andreas Christensen (calf) are still sidelined through injury.

Football Odds

Juan Musso has been Atletico's Copa del Rey 'keeper this season and it remains to be seen whether Diego Simeone reverts to his number-one shot-stopper, Jan Oblak, for such a big game.

Nahuel Molina, Robin Le Normand and Javi Galan all started Atletico's quarter-final thrashing of Getafe and Saturday's 3-0 victory over Valencia in La Liga; the three defenders appear likely to begin Tuesday's game. Jose Maria Gimenez partnered Le Normand in central defence against Getafe and will hope to replace Barcelona loanee Clement Lenglet, who played from the off against Valencia.

Koke (muscle) missed the weekend win at the Mestalla and is an injury doubt for the trip to Catalonia. Rodrigo de Paul and Marcos Llorente started in central midfield against Valencia but Simeone can also call on Axel Witsel and Conor Gallagher, although the latter may be used in slightly wider position to help out one of the full-backs against Raphinha or Yamal.

Samuel Lino, Guiliano Simeone, Antoine Griezmann and Julian Alvarez completed Atletico's starting XI on Saturday; all four could get the nod again on Tuesday, although Alexander Sorloth is an option in attack and Angel Correa strengthened his claim for a starting berth by scoring off the bench in Valencia.

Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid Odds

Despite taking the lead through Pedri, Barcelona lost 2-1 at home to Atletico in La Liga four days before Christmas Day as second-half goals from De Paul and Sorloth secured all three points for Simeone's side. Nevertheless, Hansi Flick's charges are 7/10, or a 58.8% chance, to take a lead with them to Madrid next week, while the visitors are 16/5 (23.8%) to head back home with the advantage.

The draw is priced at 3/1, both teams to score at 8/15, and over 3.5 total goals at 11/8.

Lewandowski (21/20) heads the anytime goalscorer market followed by Torres (8/5), Olmo (13/8) and Raphinha (7/4) with Alvarez (21/10) first up for Atletico.

Anytime Goalscorer - Lamine Yamal (BAR) @ 12/5

Yamal is yet to score against Atletico in his senior career but he's only made two substitute appearances against them, both in the league last season as a 16-year-old, with an ankle injury ruling him out of his side's 2-1 defeat to Los Rojiblancos in December.

The Spain international is more of a provider than a goalscorer at this stage of his career, as highlighted by the 11 assists to his name in La Liga which is more than double the amount of goals (five) he has scored in the competition this season.

However, Yamal, who set a Copa del Rey record in January 2024 by becoming the youngest-ever goalscorer this century, has struck in both of his competition appearances this term, netting Barca's fifth in a 5-1 last-16 annihilation of Real Betis before grabbing their last goal again in a 5-0 battering of Valencia.

That means the 17-year-old has scored in his first three Copa del Rey outings and it seems to be the cup competitions that he thrives in. Yamal struck in both of Barca's Super Cup matches in Saudi Arabia earlier this year, making it 2-0 to his side against Athletic Club in the semi-finals before a 22nd-minute equaliser in the 5-2 win over Real Madrid in the final.

The Euro 2024 winner has scored in all four domestic cup appearances this season and has a couple of goals to his name in the Uefa Champions League.

Atletico will make things extremely difficult for their hosts on Tuesday and it may well require some magic from one of Raphinha or Yamal to unlock the door in this first leg.

At the price offered, Yamal is well worth backing to be the one twisting the key.

Team With Most Booking Points - Atletico Madrid @ 4/5

Barca didn't receive a single booking in December's La Liga defeat to Atletico while Witsel and Le Normand were both booked on the field for Simeone's side (Gimenez was cautioned on the bench).

Atletico have been shown at least three cards in their last head-to-heads with Barca and they have received the most booking points in three of them including both last year.

I'm expecting Barca to be the ones dominating the ball on Tuesday with Atletico happy to sit back and frustrate their hosts, doing all they can to avoid their defence being breached.

All of the above leads me to think nearly EVS on Atletico to come away with the most booking points is rather generous.

Offers

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