Barcelona vs Alaves Prediction: Back the home side to score plenty

Premier Sports 1 is the TV channel to watch Barcelona on Sunday lunchtime as the Catalan giants are in action in the early window  as they take on Alaves with kick-off set for 13:00.

Our Spanish-based football expert Mark Sochon previews the action and picks out his two Best Bets for the game. Check out his Barcelona vs Alaves Predictions in his full match preview for the La Liga match for us at Betfred Insights...

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

After a desperate run of league results towards the end of 2024, there’s little margin for error for Barcelona as they head into a home fixture against Deportivo Alavés that they’ll be strongly expected to win. 

Hansi Flick will be hoping his team are now over their league slump that saw them win just one of eight matches in the Spanish top flight between matchdays 13 and 20. 

Their response was emphatic, with a 7-1 home win against struggling Valencia last weekend seeing them move to within three points of Atlético Madrid, but they remain seven behind leaders Real Madrid. 

While they do still have a home Clásico to play, that fixture is not until May, so they are going to need favours elsewhere, and to be close to flawless themselves over the next few months if they want to close the gap on their eternal rivals. 

The good news for Barça is that they can at least solely focus on their domestic commitments in February. Goals from Lamine Yamal and Ronald Araújo secured a 2-2 draw against Atalanta on Wednesday, which ensured a top-two finish for the Catalans in the league phase of the Champions League, and direct passage into the round-of-16. 

Araújo’s strike was Barcelona’s 31st goal in eight matches so far in 2025. They’ve hit five or more on four occasions already this calendar year, so there is little doubt about them in the final third right now, with even fringe players like Ferran Torres and Fermín López chipping in with some useful goals.  

Defensively there is more of a vulnerability, although that’s perhaps inevitable to some extent given Flick’s tendency for a high-risk approach. 

The biggest concern for Barça fans may well be in goal. Flick now seems intent on using Wojciech Szczęsny rather than Iñaki Peña between the sticks, in the absence of number one Marc-André ter Stegen who may not feature again this season. Szczęsny came out of retirement to move to Barcelona, but he has not been at all convincing so far. 

Alavés will be hoping they can put Szczęsny to the test here, and they have only failed to score in one of their last nine games in all competitions. Only one of those games ended in victory though, and they are just one place and one point above the relegation zone heading into this weekend. 

The Alavés board caught everyone by surprise with their decision to sack Luis García Plaza in early December. García had guided the Basque club to promotion at the first attempt, and secured an impressive 10th place finish in La Liga last term. A poor run of form in the autumn led to his dismissal though, and he was replaced by former Celta Vigo boss Chacho Coudet. 

The new man can point to some improvements, with his six league games to date serving up four draws, to go with an impressive 3-1 win at Real Betis and an unfortunate 1-0 defeat at home to Girona. 

Their hat-trick hero at the Estadio Benito Villamarín and main goal threat so far under Coudet has been striker Kike García. The 35-year-old has found a new lease of life since the change, scoring eight goals in seven appearances in all competitions. 

The former Middlesbrough forward is sure to be the focal point of the Alavés attack again in this game, despite an angry reaction to being substituted late in the 1-1 draw at home to Celta Vigo last time out. That was a particularly drab game, with only eight shots in the entire match, but it’s safe to assume this one could be a good deal more open. 

Team News: 

Aside from Ter Stegen and fellow long-term absentee Marc Bernal, Barcelona are also missing Andreas Christensen to injury here. Iñigo Martinez and Dani Olmo are rated doubtful and unlikely to be rushed back for this game. 

Barça are in action again in midweek at Valencia in the quarter-finals of the Copa del Rey, so some light rotation is expected. Pau Cubarsí and Marc Casadó should return to the side having only featured off the bench against Atalanta. Flick may also consider resting one of his front three, with Raphinha perhaps the most likely candidate after he played 90 minutes in the Champions League. 

As for Alavés, they have a significant absentee with regular centre-back Abdel Abqar suspended for this game. They are also missing first choice keeper Antonio Sivera to injury, while midfielder Joan Jordan is a doubt. 

Coudet has tended to use a 4-2-3-1 system so far, but it’s possible he could opt to play an extra centre-back in this game, despite the absence of Abqar. That could see Santiago Mouriño and Adrián Pica come into the side. 

Barcelona vs Alaves Odds

Despite losing three of their last four at home in La Liga, Barcelona are the huge 1/6 favourites here. You can back the Draw at 13/2, while Alavés are available at 14/1. 

For bigger returns on the hosts, you can back Barcelona -1.00 Handicap at 1/2, while they are available at 5/4 with a -2.00 Handicap. Barcelona and Over 3.5 goals is priced at 11/10. 

Alternatively, you can back Alavés, who have only suffered one defeat inside 90 minutes under their new boss, to compete in this game, with the visitors on offer at 7/5 with a +2.00 Handicap. You can also back Draw or Alavés at 7/2 in the Double Chance market. 

There’s doubt when it comes to exactly who will take to the field for Barça, with some rotation likely after a busy fortnight. Robert Lewandowski was rested only last weekend which suggests he should start, and the Polish striker is the 11/4 favourite to score first, while he can be backed at 3/5 to score anytime. He’s also on offer at 12/1 to score three or more, having netted a hat-trick in the reverse fixture earlier this term. 

You can also back Raphinha to score anytime at 21/20, while Lamine Yamal is priced at 6/4 to get on the scoresheet. There’s also a Price Boost on Lewandowski to score and Yamal 1+ assists, with enhanced odds of 7/2. 

Bet 1 - Barcelona over 2.5 goals & Barcelona over 5.5 corners @ 13/10 

We saw Barcelona punish a Valencia side that was missing their best centre-back to suspension only last weekend, and we might get something similar here with Abqar a significant absentee for the visitors. 

While they have dropped points at Getafe since the turn of the year, the overall impression has been of a refreshed and sharper looking Barcelona than we saw at the back end of 2024. They are averaging 3.88 goals per game in all competitions since the turn of the year, while they’ve averaged 8.44 corners per home game in La Liga this term. 

This is a game they should dominate, and I’m using the Bet Builder to back Barcelona over 2.5 goals and Barcelona over 5.5 corners at 13/10.  

Bet 2 - Barcelona & Both teams to score @ 6/4  

Alavés do have one of the form strikers in La Liga in the shape of Kike García, and they should ask some questions of their own in this game. Even in the 7-1 win over Valencia last time out in La Liga, Barcelona were caught out defensively at times, and Los Che could easily have scored another goal or two.  

67% of Barça’s home league games this season have seen both teams score, while the same is true of 73% of Alavés away games. Therefore, we have reason to think the Basques can get on the scoresheet here, but it’s unlikely to alter the outcome of the game, with Flick’s side so impressive at the other end of the pitch. 

I’m backing Barcelona and Both teams to score at 6/4.