Azerbaijan vs Estonia Prediction: 50/1 shot for repeat scoreline

Azerbaijan and Estonia are going head-to-head in a fight to avoid relegation to League D in the Nations League. To prevent the drop, Estonia simply have to avoid defeat in Baku, while their hosts have lost all four of their matches in this competition in 2024. It’s been a pretty rough ride for Azerbaijan’s new boss Fernando Santos, who you may remember as the man who masterminded Portugal’s Euro 2016 win in Paris. 

Below you will find my Azerbaijan vs Estonia prediction as they meet at 14:00 on Saturday afternoon. 

Team News

Mahir Emreli is suspended for Azerbaijan having been sent off last time out against Slovakia so Qarabag’s Musa Gurbanli could come into the side having been a late call-up to the squad. Santos had made six changes to this month’s squad, but lost Emin Mahmudov and Rustam Ahmadzada due to injury. 

One positive is the return of Bahlul Mustafazada who was injured for the fixtures last month and he should feature in the centre of defence. Ankaragucu forward Renat Dadashov is a big name exclusion from this squad while goalkeeper Mehdi Jannatov has also been dropped having conceded 11 goals in the Nations League so far. 

It means one of Rza Jafarov, who has one cap, or the uncapped duo of Aydin Bayramov or Nijat Mehbaliyev will start in goal here. This is a big test for whichever goalkeeper starts on Saturday afternoon. 

Estonia’s squad is also missing a few key names through injury with Marten Kuusk, Erik Sorga and Rauno Sappinen all absent so I’d expect Henri Anier, with 23 international goals to his name, to be given the nod up front. They’ve received a boost in the fact that Rocco Robert Shein is back from suspension, and he should start in midfield. 

Azerbaijan vs Estonia Odds

Azerbaijan are priced at 4/7 to win this game giving them an implied win probability of 63%, with Estonia available at 9/2. The draw is 11/4, over 2.5 goals is 10/11 and BTTS is 4/6. 

Double Chance: Draw or Estonia @ 13/10

Based on what we have seen lately, there is no way I’m comfortable backing Azerbaijan to win at 4/7. In fact, I’ll instead back against them winning this game as my first selection. Despite their experienced manager, the form has been turgid and they’ve lost four from four in the Nations League. 

They have lost to Slovakia twice, and were also beaten 3-1 by Sweden and Estonia. Given Estonia beat them in the reverse fixture just one month ago, it feels slightly odd that Azerbaijan are such a short price just because they are playing this fixture at home. Given the away side only need a draw to survive, the best thing to do is to back the Double Chance market of Draw or Estonia to win. 

I think the away win offers massive value here, but we will play it safe and also cover the draw given Jurgen Henn’s side don’t need to take all three points. 

Correct score: Azerbaijan 1-3 Estona @ 50/1

I love long-shots and think we are getting huge value on Estonia to repeat the scoreline they produced on October 11. Shein, Ioan Yakovlev and Vlasiy Sinyavskiy all found the net in Tallinn and they should all start behind the striker again in this game. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s goal that day came from the penalty spot so it’s not like they were creating loads from open play.

These are the same two teams, meeting just a month apart. I don’t think it is beyond the realms of possibility that we could see a repeat scoreline, and I think the 50/1 on offer is incredibly generous. Azerbaijan will have a new goalkeeper in between the sticks as well, and that inexperience could lead to plenty of Estonia goals.

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