Sydney vs Melbourne Victory Prediction: Plenty of yellow in the Big Blue

The first Big Blue of the 2025/26 Australian A-League Men's season takes place between Sydney FC and Melbourne Victory at Allianz Stadium on Saturday (08:35 GMT, TNT Sports 4). The hosts sit second after winning their last three games, while the visitors are down in ninth, five points behind the Sky Blues after four rounds of fixtures.

Below are my Sydney vs Melbourne Victory predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

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New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Team News

Still looking for his first appearance in Sky Blue, former Melbourne City man Ben Garuccio has been named in Sydney's 20-man list after suffering from a quad injury throughout pre-season. Mathias Macallister also returns after a calf complaint.

However, Akol Akon is unavailable as he is on international duty with the Australian U17s.

Football Odds

Nishan Velupillay, who starred for Melbourne Victory last season, scoring seven goals and providing four assists in 25 ALM appearances, has recovered from injury and is in line to play his first minutes of the campaign this weekend.

The 24-year-old has been joined in Arthur Diles' extended squad by Louis D'Arrigo, who is looking to make his competitive debut for the club after moving from Polish side Lechia in the off-season.

Brendan Hamill (knee) remains sidelined for Victory.

Sydney vs Melbourne Victory Odds

Sydney won last season's corresponding fixture 3-0, helped by a 16th-minute red card to the now-departed Victory playmaker Zinedine Machach. The Sky Blues are 1/1 to triumph again in this head-to-head at Sky Stadium, implying a 50% probability of success, while the visitors are 21/10, or a 32.3% chance, to triumph on their travels.

The draw is priced at 5/2, both teams to score at 1/2, and over 3.5 total goals at 11/8.

Betfred are offering several Price Boosts for the Big Blue, including Both Teams to Score, Both Teams 5+ Corners & Both Teams 20+ Booking Pts at 7/1 (was 6/1).

Booking Points Over/Under +42.5 - Over 42.5 @ 6/5

Prior to January’s 2-0 win for Victory at AAMI Park, the last five head-to-heads between these two teams finished with 50 or more booking points, including last season’s corresponding fixture at Allianz Stadium, where Sydney were awarded 10 booking points for one yellow, and Victory were issued 65 for four yellows and one red.

Exactly 50 booking points were awarded in Sydney’s last game, a 2-0 win against MacArthur FC, and the Melbourne derby the same weekend wasn’t far off that total, as 40 booking points were totalled.

Today's Football Fixtures

Victory have seen over 42.5 booking points land once this season, in their last away game, a 2-0 defeat at Perth Glory.

Player to Receive a Card - Rhyan Grant (SYD) @ 13/5

Sydney right-back Rhyan Grant has received seven yellow cards in 32 career appearances against Victory - only against Western Sydney Wanderers (10) and Brisbane Roar (nine) has he been booked more times.

The 34-year-old, who picked up six yellows in 25 ALM games last season, has been cautioned once so far this league campaign, in the Sky Blues' 4-1 win at Newcastle Jets on November 1, although he also went into the book on August 10, when his side won 2-0 at Sydney United in the last 16 of the Australia Cup.

Grant averaged 1.2 fouls per game in last season's ALM and has committed five fouls across his first four matches in the competition this term.

Nick Ware P/L 25/26 ALM Season

 P/L: +40.8