Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United: No winners in first Original Rivalry of the season

Melbourne Victory stemmed the bleeding of a three-game losing streak last weekend, holding hosts Macarthur FC to a 0-0 draw at Campbelltown Stadium. Next up for Arthur Diles' side, though, are Adelaide United, who will also be desperate for a win after suffering back-to-back defeats away to Wellington Phoenix (2-1) and, most recently, at home to Brisbane Roar (0-1).

The first Original Rivalry of the 2025/26 Australian A-League Men's season takes place at AAMI Park on Saturday (08:35 GMT, TNT Sports 2), and you can build up to the action by checking out my Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United predictions, alongside all the latest team news and match odds, below.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Team News

Denis Genreau is still serving a suspension for the red card he received in Melbourne Victory's 1-0 loss at Brisbane Roar on November 28, so he will be in the stands on Saturday, alongside the injured trio of Brendan Hamill (knee), Franco Lino and Reno Piscopo (both unspecified).

Football Odds

Adelaide United, meanwhile, have a full complement to choose from, with former Victory winger Ben Folami, yet to make an appearance this season due to injury, back in Airton Andrioli's extended squad for Saturday's trip to Melbourne.

Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United Odds

Melbourne Victory, who won last season's corresponding fixture 5-3 in March, are 23/20 favourites to triumph on Saturday, implying a 46.5% probability of success. Adelaide, winless in their last 12 away games stretching back to January, and without a victory over MVC at AAMI Park since May 2021, are 9/5, or a 35.7% chance, to end their rotten run this weekend, with the draw priced at 5/2.

Player to Receive a Card - Louis D'Arrigo (MVC) @ 10/3

Victory midfielder Louis D'Arrigo will face his former club Adelaide for the first time in his career this Saturday.

The 24-year-old was born in Adelaide and won their Youth Player of the Year award for the 2018/19 season, during which he made his senior debut.

He went on to make 98 league appearances for the Reds, picking up 16 yellow cards and one red before departing for Polish side Lechia Gdansk in September 2023.

Today's Football Fixtures

D'Arrigo was booked four times in 21 league games for Lechia during his first season, but he struggled for minutes in the Ekstraklasa in 2024/25, starting just once.

The Australian returned to the ALM earlier this year, signing for Adelaide's rivals, Victory, and after missing his new side's first four matches due to injury, he has started to establish himself in the team, starting the last two games.

Across three appearances, the first as a substitute, D'Arrigo has committed four fouls, and he's unlikely to hold back on Saturday against his former employers.

Adelaide midfielder Ethan Alagich averaged 1.1 fouls won per game in last season's ALM, and while his average so far this term is 0.9 per game, he was upended four times in the Reds' last away match, a 2-1 loss at Wellington Phoenix on November 29, so he's a player who can lure opponents into making fouls.

In the Original Rivalry, against his old side, I think there's an argument to be made that D'Arrigo is providing value in the Player to Receive a Card market at 10/3.

Match Result - Draw @ 5/2

Adelaide are yet to draw a game this season, winning three and losing four of their first seven.

Victory, though, have played out a couple of stalemates, drawing 0-0 at home to Auckland FC and away to Macarthur FC.

This fixture hasn't ended level since November 2023, which was the last of a three-game run of stalemates between the two teams.

There has been a winner in the last five head-to-heads, with Victory emerging triumphant from four, but I'm struggling to pick either to claim all three points on Saturday.

The Reds have lost all three away games so far - all by a 2-1 scoreline - while Victory are yet to win on home soil, failing to even score in their draw with Auckland and 2-0 defeat to Melbourne City.

Victory are winless in their last four matches, failing to score in any of them, while Adelaide have suffered back-to-back defeats, failing to get on the scoresheet last week, too, so confidence is bound to be low on both sides, making the draw the most attractive option in the 'Match Result' market.

Nick Ware P/L 25/26 ALM Season (After GW7)

 P/L: +8.88%