Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory Prediction: Christmas derby card for Davidson

The weekend's headline fixture from the Australian A-League Men's comes from AAMI Park on Saturday (08:35 GMT, TNT Sports 1) as Melbourne City take on Melbourne Victory in the second Melbourne derby of the 2025/26 season; the first, on November 8, saw City run out 2-0 winners, but Aurelio Vidmar's side have only picked up four points from three games since, while Victory, still bottom of the table, will head into this contest with a renewed sense of vigour following last weekend's 2-1 win against Adelaide United.

Below are my Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

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Team News

After sitting out the last two games, observing concussion protocol, Andrew Nabbout has been cleared to return to the Melbourne City squad this weekend.

Young defender Besian Kutleshi also returns after overcoming a minor ankle issue, but Ben Mazzeo has been ruled out with a 'minor quad niggle'.

James Nieuwenhuizen (ACL), Lawrene Wong (MCL), Alessandro Lopane (ankle), Samuel Souprayen (Achilles) and Mathew Leckie (hip) are also sidelined for Vidmar's side.

Football Odds

Brendan Hamill (knee), Franco Lino and Reno Piscopo (both unspecified) will miss out again for Melbourne Victory, who are boosted by the return of Denis Genreau. The 26-year-old off-season signing was sent off in his side's 1-0 defeat at Brisbane Roar on November 28, subsequently missing their goalless draw at Macarthur FC a week later and last week's 2-1 victory over Adelaide United, but he's free to return for Arthur Diles' charges in the Melbourne derby.

Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory Odds

After eight derbies without a victory, City have now won the last two, both without conceding a goal. Vidmar's side are 11/10 to extend that run to three games on Saturday, implying a 47.6% probability of success, with Victory 21/10, or a 32.3% chance, to claim a first win against their rivals since October 2024, and the draw offered at 23/10.

Player to Receive a Card - Jason Davidson (MVC) @ 5/2

Victory left-back Jason Davidson, who returned to the club earlier this year, was booked in three of his first five ALM appearances this season, although he has avoided a caution in his last three.

The 34-year-old also finished last month's Melbourne derby without making a foul or picking up a card, but he's still averaging 1.1 fouls per game in the competition.

Today's Football Fixtures

Kavian Rahmani mostly played from the right in City's last game, a 1-1 draw at South Korean side FC Seoul on December 12, and the 18-year-old was fouled four times in that AFC Champions League match.

Left-sided centre-back Yazan Al Arab, left-back Kim Jin-su and left winger Jesse Lingard were all booked for fouling the teenager, who was upended twice in his last ALM appearance, a 1-0 win at Newcastle Jets on December 6.

Should Rahmani start on the right for City on Saturday, Davidson, a man 16 years his senior, could be forced into making a few fouls, and that makes him an attractive option in the Player to Receive a Card market.

Total Goals - Under 2.5 @ 10/11

Six of the last nine Melbourne derbies, including the most recent two, have produced two or fewer goals.

At just under EVS, backing under 2.5 goals looks like the best bet for Saturday's head-to-head, too.

Five of City's seven league games this season, and four of their six AFC Champions League contests, have finished with two or fewer goals scored, while five of Victory's seven in the ALM have gone under 2.5.

I'm predicting another low-scoring derby this weekend.

Nick Ware P/L 25/26 ALM Season (After GW8)

 P/L: +10.8%