Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction: New Zealanders to leave it late again

The second New Zealand 'derby' of the 2024/25 Australian A-League Men's season takes place at Go Media Stadium on Saturday (04:00, TNT Sports 4), with Wellington Phoenix looking to exact revenge on Auckland FC following their 2-0 defeat on home soil last month.

Read on for my Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

There are no changes to the Auckland squad that dispatched Newcastle Jets 2-0 last weekend with head coach Steve Corica able to choose from a full complement of players.

The former Sydney FC boss could name an unchanged starting XI although Neyder Moreno, who opened the scoring in the 83rd minute against the Jets after only coming on 13 minutes earlier, has put himself in contention for a promotion.

Football Odds

Wellington Phoenix can welcome defender Tim Payne back from injury after the 30-year-old missed their 1-0 win over Melbourne Victory on October 24, with Giancarlo Italiano's side given a bye in round six due to an odd number of teams in the competition.

Fin Roa Conchie remains injured, however, while Xuan Loke has been omitted from the long list.

Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Auckland are 9/10 to make it two out of two New Zealand derby victories, giving the Black Knights an implied win probability of 52.6%, while Wellington Phoenix are 11/4, or a 26.7% chance, to exact revenge for their defeat in the first head-to-head.

The draw is priced at 9/4, both teams to score at 5/6, and over 2.5 total goals at 1/1.

Auckland pair Max Mata and Guillermo May (both 15/8) head the anytime goalscorer market, followed by Wellington star Kosta Barbarouses (9/4).

Total Goals - Under 2.5 @ 8/11

As boring as it may be, this is the selection staring us in the face.

Under 2.5 goals has been a winner in every Auckland game so far this season with the Black Knights making a faultless start to life in the ALM, winning all five matches and keeping a clean sheet in each. Corica's side have triumphed 2-0 on three occasions and 1-0 twice, highlighting their defensive diligence but also showing that they are not running away with games, despite collecting maximum points so far.

Wellington Phoenix, meanwhile, have seen under 2.5 goals land in four of their five ALM contests this term, the outlier being their 3-0 victory over Central Coast Mariners in Gosford on November 10. The Nix, in fact, are a team used to low-scoring encounters, with 52 per cent of their league matches last season - including play-offs - finishing with two goals or fewer, a statistic only beaten by Melbourne Victory (55 per cent).

Italiano knows how to keep things tight, and with his opposite number also mastering that feat this season, it sets up a game that is finely poised on Saturday, but one that may not see a whole load of goals.

There were two goals scored in the reverse fixture at Sky Stadium on November 2 and even they came late, with the first strike of Jake Brimmer's brace arriving in the 89th minute.

First Goal Time (30 Minute Intervals) - 61+ @ 4/1

This isn't a market I've visited before, but considering the season's events so far, it's one worth looking at ahead of Saturday's contest.

Auckland may have 15 points to their name after five games but their victories haven't been a stroll in the park as they have required late goals in three of them.

The Black Knights' 1-0 win over Sydney on October 27 was only decided by defender Nando Pijnaker in the seventh minute of second-half stoppage time, while Brimmer's brace in the 2-0 triumph over the Nix six days later came after the 88th minute. Last weekend's 2-0 victory over the Jets, meanwhile, saw Moreno open the scoring in the 83rd minute before Francis De Vries made sure of the points with Auckland's second six minutes later.

That means the first goal has come in the 83rd minute or later in 60 per cent (three) of Auckland's five ALM games so far.

Wellington, meanwhile, beat Melbourne Victory 1-0 last time out courtesy of a strike from Barbarouses in the 82nd minute, meaning 40 per cent (two) of their five matches this term have seen the first or only goal of the game struck in the final 10 minutes.

Therefore, a first goal time of 61+ minutes appeals to me on Saturday at 4/1. You can back the first strike to be between the 81st minute and the 90th minute at 16/1, something I also considered, but to play things a bit safer, I'm opting for the 30-minute intervals at a price that is still enticing.

Offers

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