Atletico vs Real Madrid Prediction: The draw at 12/5 is the top bet

The Madrid Derby is live on ITV4 this Sunday and it is a great boost for football fans to see just a top match on Free-to-Air TV. Kick-off is set for 20:00.

Our Madrid-based Spanish football expert Mark Sochon expects a good game and he provides his in-depth preview along with his Atletico vs Real Madrid Predictions for us here at Betfred Insights...

It's derby weekend in the Spanish capital with Atlético and Real set for a Sunday night showdown at the Estadio Metropolitano. The good news for UK viewers is that you can catch all the action live and free-to-air on ITV4.  

Real Madrid head into the match as the defending Spanish and European champions, but also in the knowledge that their only defeats last season came in this stadium. 

Carlo Ancelotti's side haven't been defeated inside 90 minutes in more than a year. Their last loss was the league derby here last September when Álvaro Morata scored twice against his old club in a 3-1 Atlético victory. 

Their only other defeat since then, came in January in Extra Time in the Copa del Rey, also at the Metropolitano against Atleti. That match ended 4-2 in the home team's favour, but came only eight days after a 5-3 derby victory for Real Madrid in the Supercopa in Saudi Arabia, with that one also going to Extra Time. 

There was certainly no shortage of entertainment in these fixtures last season, but that hasn't always been the way of things during the Diego Simeone era at Atlético Madrid. Prior to those most recent clashes, this was a fixture that was invariably hard-fought and competitive, but often not a great spectacle. 

Atleti were not great defensively last season, conceding 43 goals in La Liga, their joint worst tally in a full campaign under Simeone. That at least helped to serve up plenty of Madrid derby goals, but the early signs are that Los Rojiblancos are stronger in that department this season. 

With Spain international Robin Le Normand arriving from Real Sociedad and the injury-prone José María Giménez staying fit, they've been more assured in central defence and come into this match having conceded just once in six league outings. That's a really good sign for Atleti's prospects this season, given their success under Simeone has always been built on solid foundations. 

However, things haven't quite clicked into place at the other end yet. New strikers Julián Alvarez and Alexander Sørloth appear to currently be competing for one place in the side and they aren't creating a lot of chances. 

There is certainly still a dependence on Antoine Griezmann when it comes to providing an attacking spark. The Frenchman scored and assisted as Atleti came from behind to win their opening Champions League game 2-1 against RB Leipzig at the death. 

A strike from Conor Gallagher ensured their following match ended in a 1-1 draw against Rayo, while it took a brilliant cross from Griezmann to tee up Alvarez for a simple finish to break the deadlock with a scarcely deserved 90th minute winner against Celta Vigo on Thursday. 

Atleti were not best pleased to have been handed a Thursday night fixture and long trip to Galicia, just three days before the derby, not least given Real Madrid's last match was on Tuesday at home to Alavés. 

Los Blancos were in complete control heading into the final 10 minutes of that game with a 3-0 advantage thanks to goals from Lucas Vázquez, Kylian Mbappé and Rodrygo. Ancelotti withdrew a number of his stars, but 85th and 86th minute strikes from the visitors set up a frantic ending to the game with Alavés missing opportunities to snatch what would have been a dramatic leveller. 

Despite the late scare, it's four straight wins in La Liga for Real Madrid and five in all competitions. While there's still a sense that they've yet to hit top gear, there has been a noticeable improvement from the opening weeks of the campaign when they dropped points against Mallorca and Las Palmas. 

Los Blancos are already playing catch-up on Barcelona as a result of that. Ancelotti is not the type to panic, but this match starts a run of considerably tougher fixtures and he is going to need some of his key players to raise their level, if this long unbeaten run is to continue. 

Team News: 

The big piece of team news heading into this match is that Mbappé will miss what should have been his first Madrid derby due to a hamstring injury. David Alaba, Dani Ceballos and  

Brahim Díaz are also sidelined for the visitors. 

Ancelotti will most likely respond to the absence of Mbappé by switching back to last season's system with Jude Bellingham operating in a more advanced position, behind a front two of Rodrygo and Vinícius. 

As for Atlético Madrid, they are missing César Azpilicueta and Pablo Barrios to injuries. Thomas Lemar is nearing fitness after a lengthy absence, but is unlikely to feature. Samuel Lino, Julián Alvarez and Rodrigo De Paul are all expected to rotate in, having dropped to the bench on Thursday. 

Atletico vs Real Madrid Odds

There's not much to separate the two Madrid rivals in the Match Result market. Real are the slight favourites at 6/4, while you can back Atlético at 9/5. The Draw is priced at 12/5. 

If you're expecting the goals to flow again following the high-scoring clashes last term, you can back Both Teams to Score at 4/7, a winning bet in all of the last six meetings. Over 2.5 Goals is priced at 8/11, while you can back Over 3.5 Goals at 7/4. 

Despite the absence of Mbappé, there's still plenty of attacking talent on display and you can back Rodrygo to score anytime at 23/10, while Vinícius is the 13/8 favourite to get on the scoresheet. 

Griezmann is certainly the form attacking player for Atleti. You can back the Frenchman to score anytime at 21/10, while he's available at long odds of 4/1 to register 1+ assists, a winning bet in four of his eight club appearances this term. 

This derby could also see England teammates Jude Bellingham and Conor Gallagher go head-to-head in midfield. You can use the Bet Builder to back both players to be carded at 4/1. Meanwhile, Bellingham is priced at 11/5 to score anytime, but he's actually two behind Gallagher in terms of La Liga goals this term and you can back the former Chelsea man to score anytime at 5/1. 

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Bet 1 - Draw @ 12/5 

The clubs have met six times since the start of 2023, with five of those matches being level at Full Time and this is shaping up to be another really competitive game. Real Madrid have a bit more in terms of individual quality, but Atleti are defending well and are really tough to beat at the Estadio Metropolitano. 

Both sides head into the fixture unbeaten in the 2024/25 season, but of the attacking players on display, there's only really Griezmann who could be described as being on top of his game. I'm expecting a really even contest and the Draw looks to offer the best value in the Match Result market at 12/5. 

Bet 2 - Over 49.5 Booking Points & Under 3.5 Goals @ 83/100 

Given how many goals these derbies served up last season, punters are likely to be drawn to backing another high-scoring affair, but I see this being a much tighter game. 

Atleti look as strong defensively as they have done for a number of years, with Le Normand having a really positive impact on their backline. The home back three will still have their hands full against Vinícius and Rodrygo, who shouldn't take long to adjust to operating as a front two again, but they will miss the service that the now retired Toni Kroos used to provide. 

With 35 yellows and two reds dished out across the last six meetings and with a number of players on both sides who should relish the physical element of a derby, I'm using the Bet Builder to back Over 49.5 Booking Points and Under 3.5 Goals at 83/100. 

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...