Atletico Madrid vs Lille Prediction: Simeone’s side can’t buy a clean sheet

Atletico Madrid suffered an embarrassing 4-0 defeat to Benfica in their last Uefa Champions League outing, so Diego Simeone will be desperate for his side to make a statement in the return to the competition on Wednesday (20:00, TNT Sports 6) when they host Lille at the Metropolitano Stadium.

Below you can find my Atletico Madrid vs Lille prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this league phase contest in the Spanish capital.

Team News

Cesar Azpilicueta, Robin Le Normand and Marcos Llorente are all confirmed absentees for Atletico on Wednesday, despite Llorente recently returning to light training.

Meanwhile, Pablo Barrios and Clement Lenglet, who both started Sunday's 3-1 victory over Leganes at the Metropolitano, are likely to miss out in midweek after sustaining issues.

Two players who should be shoo-ins to start against Lille are Alexander Sorloth and Antoine Griezmann, who inspired Atletico's comeback on the weekend, with the former bagging a brace either side of a strike from the Frenchman.

Julian Alvarez came off the bench to supply Sorloth's second of the match and the summer signing from Manchester City will hope to join the Norwegian and Griezmann in attack, with Angel Correa likely to drop out of the starting XI if that is to be the case.

Samuel Lino, Rodrigo de Paul, Jose Maria Gimenez and Giuliano Simeone were also second-half substitutes on Sunday, and the first three of those names could work their way into head coach Diego Simeone's lineup for the visit of Lille.

September Player of the Month, Conor Gallagher, is also in contention to start after being left on the bench against Leganes.

Football Odds

Lille's lengthy injury list includes Mitchel Bakker, Nabil Bentaleb, Hakon Arnar Haraldsson, Ethan Mbappe, Tiago Santos, Ismaily and Samuel Umtiti, none of whom will make Wednesday's match.

Veteran midfielder Benjamin Andre, however, is back available after serving a one-match suspension during Friday's goalless draw at AS Monaco.

Gabriel Gudmundsson is set to deputise at left-back for Bakker, who was withdrawn for the Swede after half an hour in the French principality last week, while Remy Cabella could also come into head coach Bruno Genesio's thinking ahead of this clash in the Spanish capital.

Jonathan David and Edon Zhegrova were unable to inspire Lille against Monaco but the pair are set to start again on Wednesday as Genesio plots another famous Madrid victory, having overseen a 1-0 win against Real Madrid last month when David scored and Zhegrova was awarded Player of the Match.

Atletico Madrid vs Lille Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Atletico Madrid vs Lille page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Atletico are 4/9 to return to winning ways in the Champions League, giving the hosts an implied win probability of 69.2%, while Lille are 6/1, or a 14.3% chance, to make it back-to-back victories against the two biggest Madrid clubs.

The draw, meanwhile, is available at 100/30, with both teams to score and over 2.5 total goals priced at 1/1 and 5/6, respectively.

Sorloth and Alvarez (5/4) lead the anytime goalscorer market, with David (11/4) shortest priced for the visitors.

Both Teams To Score - Yes @ 1/1

There was a time when I wouldn't even countenance the thought of backing both teams to score in an Atletico game at the Metropolitano, particularly one in the Champions League against so-called lesser opposition.

However, this is not the Atletico of old, despite still being under the guidance of Simeone, who masterminded some closely-fought wins to nil on the European stage in years gone by.

Atleti only kept two clean sheets in five Champions League home games last season and are yet to record a shutout in the competition this term, home or away, beating RB Leipzig 2-1 at the Metropolitano before their hammering in Lisbon last time out.

I was inside the Estadio da Luz for that famous Benfica win earlier this month and it was an absolute disaster of a performance by Simeone's side, who completely capitulated in the second half and barely threatened to mount an attack of their own. I'm not concerned that they will be as bad going forward on Wednesday as, since the start of last season, Atleti have only failed to score three times out of a possible 33 games at home, with only one of those - a goalless draw in La Liga with Espanyol in August - coming in 2024/25.

However, I am expecting Los Rojiblancos to concede, something they have done in six of their last seven matches. Sunday's win over Leganes was the fourth straight contest in which they had failed to keep a clean sheet and Simeone's side have gone a goal down in three of those, highlighting their sloppiness at the back.

Lille, meanwhile, have scored in 11 of their 14 games this season, with six of those seeing BTTS - Yes land - the same number as Atleti.

The French club were unable to strike on their last European outing as they lost 2-0 to Sporting in Lisbon last month; however, Angel Gomes' dismissal in the 40th minute meant they were fighting a man down for over half of the match, so I don't think it's particularly fair to assess them on that alone.

Instead, I prefer to focus on the fact that they beat Real Madrid in their most recent Champions League contest and managed to breach Paris Saint-Germain's defence in a 3-1 defeat at the beginning of September.

David scored Lille's winner against Los Blancos and Zhegrova was the man who threatened to spark a comeback at home to PSG, and Les Douges' attacking duo is sure to give Atleti's defenders a few nightmares this week.

Ultimately, I think both teams to score is well worth taking on at EVS.

Anytime Goalscorer - Antoine Griezmann (ATM) @ 7/4

My second and final selection for this match is for Atleti's star man Griezmann to get on the scoresheet.

The 33-year-old is surely nearing the end of his time at the club, which has seen him take in two spells spanning nine-plus years either side of a two-season stint at Barcelona. The USA appears to beckon for Griezmann, who has previously made no secret of his desire to move Stateside one day.

Still, the Frenchman remains in Madrid for the next couple of months at least, and in all likelihood until the end of the current campaign as he bids to wave goodbye to the club with another trophy or two.

His ability and work rate remain undiminished, as evidenced by the way he slid in on Sunday to put Atleti in front against Leganes. That was his first goal since September 19, ending a five-game barren run, but he had started the season with three strikes in his first six matches (five starts), and so goes in search of his fifth of the campaign on Wednesday.

Griezmann's most recent effort prior to Sunday was in the Champions League as he struck Atleti's equaliser in their September win over Leipzig, and it's a competition in which he excelled in last season, scoring six times in 10 appearances.

He's usually the man for the big occasion, and I have to say that I am somewhat surprised to see him below Alvarez, Sorloth (both 5/4) and Correa (13/8) in the anytime goalscorer market, despite the trio featuring further forward in attack.

At 7/4, I'm happy to back Griezmann to find a way past Lucas Chevalier in the Lille goal on Wednesday.

Offers

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