Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan Prediction: Inzaghi to block old pal’s path at Metropolitano

 | March 12 | 

4 mins read

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Atletico Madrid and Inter Milan meet in the second leg of their Champions League round of 16 tie on Wednesday night (KO, 20:00), with the Italians currently holding a one-goal advantage courtesy of a Marko Arnautovic winner at San Siro three weeks ago.

Ahead of this TNT Sports-televised game at Estadio Metropolitano we have detailed all the latest team news and match odds below, and offered our Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan prediction.

Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan Betting Tips

  • Draw @ 12/5
  • Over 62.5 booking points @ 6/4

Inter hold a slender lead heading into the reverse fixture but the manner of their victory in Milan - Atletico failed to record a shot on target - and the contrasting form displayed by these sides, has the visitors as 2/7 favourites to progress to the quarter-finals; the hosts are 5/2 to advance.

Atletico have won just once since that defeat in Italy last month and have lost five of their last eight in all competitions. Inter meanwhile have won all 13 games they have played in 2024.

Team News

The biggest selection news concerns Atletico's talisman Antoine Griezmann, who is back in training after missing the past four matches with a sprained ankle sustained at San Siro. Expect the Frenchman to start alongside Alvaro Morata in attack.

Jose Maria Gimenez and Thomas Lemar are definitely out of action with injuries, but Cesar Azpilicueta and Pablo Barrios could return to the squad.

The hero of the first leg, Arnautovic, will be unable to reprise his role on Wednesday after picking up a muscle injury in Saturday's 1-0 win at Bologna. The Austrian could be joined by Carlos Augusto, who was substituted in the same game with a complaint of his own.

Match Odds

Atletico Madrid are 15/8 to win inside 90 minutes at Estadio Metropolitano and give themselves a chance of at least forcing extra time. Internazionale can be backed at 7/5 if you fancy Simone Inzaghi to make it back-to-back wins over his old Lazio teammate Diego Simeone, while the draw - which would be enough to send I Nerazzurri into the quarters - is 12/5.

Both teams to score is 4/5 and over 2.5 goals is EVS.

Betfred are running their famed Double Delight & Hat-trick Heaven offer on this match, meaning that if a player scores first and then nets again, you will be paid at double the odds. If he grabs a hat-trick, you will be paid out at treble the odds.

Draw @ 12/5

The task is simple for Inter - avoid defeat and they will book their place in the quarter-finals. For that reason, Inzaghi's men can afford to be patient and bide their time, whereas Atletico require a goal and could really do with showing some initiative to give their fans something to shout about and believe in after a torrid run of form.

Los Colchoneros can point to a sensational record at Estadio Metropolitano, where they have lost just once all season and collected 40/42 points in La Liga.

In fact, they are yet to be beaten at the venue in the knockout stage of the Champions League, beating Real Madrid and Juventus there in 2017 and 2019 respectively. They also drew at home to Manchester City in 2022 after losing the first leg 1-0 in England.

With such a fearsome record in Madrid, I'm reluctant to back an Inter victory on Wednesday, particularly when a draw would suffice for the Italians. The draw looks most appealing as I wouldn't be surprised to see the crowd roar Atletico on to an opening goal, but Inter should be able to step it up when required and get the result they need to knock out their opponents.

Draw in Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan at 12-5

Over 62.5 booking points @ 6/4

It was a fairly uneventful first 45 minutes of action in Milan with zero cards awarded, but it really heated up in the second period as referee Istvan Kovacs flashed his yellow card six times - twice to Inter, and four times to Atletico.

A total of 60 booking points were shown in the first leg with a yellow card worth ten points at Betfred. An identical performance in the second leg would see the above suggestion fail, but I expect there to be even more card action in Madrid with so much on the line.

It's a similar situation to last season when Inter beat Porto 1-0 at home in the first leg of their round of 16 tie before holding them to a goalless draw in Portugal, where 65 booking points were dished out (30 to Inter for three yellow cards, and 35 to Porto's Pepe for two yellows and a red).

Over 62.5 booking points in Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan at 6-4

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.

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