Atletico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction: Away side can cause upset

The Champions League quarter-final draw has delivered a big opportunity to Atletico Madrid and Borussia Dortmund. Up against each other for a semi-final place, both sides have been put in the ‘easier’ half of the draw, which means their meeting takes on even more importance.

They face each other at the Metropolitano Stadium in the Spanish capital, with kick-off at 20:00 and the game shown live on TNT Sports in the UK. Below you can check out my Atletico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund prediction, with tips and team news.

Team News 

Antoine Griezmann is back fit having missed the last international break, however his French countryman Thomas Lemar is still absent and will miss this one. The main concern for Atletico is over Memphis Depay, who missed training on Saturday and may not be fit to start this game, although he is still expected to be named on the bench. Mario Hermoso is expected to be sidelined with a thigh issue. 

For Dortmund, Nico Schlotterbeck is back from suspension after missing the second-leg win against PSV, while Ramy Bensebaini is a long-term absentee. Donyell Malen made his return to training last week, but has suffered another setback so he is expected to miss this one. Niklas Fullkrug is on a run of eight games without a goal, and Sebastien Haller may be chosen to lead the line in his place. 

Match Odds

Atletico Madrid are the favourites for this game, priced at 4/5 to take the win. That gives them an implied win probability of 58%, while the away side are available at 18/5 to gain the upper hand. A draw can be backed at 13/5, BTTS is 4/5 and over 2.5 goals is 10/11.

Draw or Borussia Dortmund @ EVS

Now I’m fully aware of the aura that Diego Simeone and Atletico Madrid have, especially in Europe. They reached the final in 2014 and 2016 and have the reputation of being the toughest side to face in the knockout stages due to their rigid defence. But I’m not so sure that’s the case anymore. 

Simeone has become a more attacking manager in recent years, and his defence isn’t as solid as it once was. His side have conceded 35 league goals this term, 15 more than leaders Real Madrid, one more than Barcelona, and seven more than Athletic Bilbao. In a rather strange quirk, 15th-placed Mallorca have conceded the same number of goals this term! 

As a result, I don’t think they warrant the price of 4/5 to win this first leg, and I’d rather back against that. They are facing a Dortmund side who are better on the road than at home, and haven’t lost an away game since Stuttgart beat them in the DFB-Pokal in early December. They’ve already gone to Newcastle and AC Milan and won in this year’s competition and I think they should be favourites to progress from this tie. They can certainly avoid defeat in the opening leg. 

Dortmund to win and BTTS No @ 7/1

Let’s push this a bit further. I think Dortmund can win in the Spanish capital. They may have lost to Stuttgart last time out, but the Schwabenmetropole have been impressive this term, and have now done a number on Dortmund three times this season. I wouldn’t read too much into that 1-0 defeat and instead look at their wider form. 

They had won their last five games in a row before the weekend, including beating PSV, Bayern Munich and Eintracht Frankfurt. They also just seem to set up more productively away from home, losing just once on the road in the league this term. In their Champions League away matches, they lost to PSG, before beating Newcastle and AC Milan, while they drew 1-1 with PSV in the last-16. 

I think they can gain the upper hand here, while I also think BTTS No is a worthy selection to add. This is likely to be a cagey encounter, with limited chances at either end. Atletico have failed to score in six of their last 11 matches, and they may not be as fluid as many expect. Meanwhile, Dortmund have kept three clean sheets in their last six, including at the Allianz Arena against Bayern. I’m going against the grain here, but it delivers a big price. 

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