Atalanta vs Cesena Prediction: Lazar-like precision from Samardzic

As the only second-division side left standing in the competition, Cesena are flying the flag for Serie B in their Coppa Italia last-16 tie with Atalanta at the Gewiss Stadium on Wednesday (17:30, Premier Sports 1).

Below you can find my Atalanta vs Cesena prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this midweek meeting in Bergamo.

Team News

Atalanta head coach Gian Piero Gasperini made three changes to the starting XI that lined up in La Dea's 3-2 defeat to Real Madrid last Tuesday for Saturday's Serie A contest at Cagliari's Unipol Domus, which the visitors won 1-0 courtesy of a 66th-minute strike from substitute Nicolo Zaniolo, who was only introduced two minutes prior.

Berat Djimsiti, Marten de Roon and Ademola Lookman dropped to the bench for Odilon Kossounou, Marco Brescianini and Mateo Retegui, but the trio were thrown on at the start of the second half with the scores goalless.

All three could start Wednesday's cup tie with De Roon perhaps most certain to as he will miss Sunday's league game against Empoli after picking up his fifth yellow card of the Serie A campaign in Cagliari.

Meanwhile, Zaniolo has surely done enough to make his full Atalanta debut with his first 15 appearances for the club coming as a substitute. The Galatasaray loanee has scored three times in his last six matches and could be joined in Wednesday's starting XI by fellow loanee Lazar Samardzic (Udinese), who hasn't started a game since the 2-1 win over Udinese on November 10.

Goalkeeper Rui Patricio, ex-Everton defender Ben Godfrey and former Chelsea winger Juan Cuadrado are among the other names in contention to feature against Cesena.

Football Odds

Wednesday's visitors to Bergamo also won last Saturday, beating Cosenza 2-1 in Serie B, but are far less likely to ring the changes given they possess a much inferior squad compared to their more glamorous opponents.

However, leading Serie B marksman Cristian Shpendi, who has struck 10 times in this season's second division, left the pitch in tears during the first half of Cesena's weekend win and is set to sit out his side's trip to the Gewiss Stadium due to an ankle injury. Elayis Tavsan came on for the Albanian and made an instant impact, opening the scoring within 16 minutes of his introduction, and he should be rewarded with a start against the Serie A leaders.

Sydney van Hooijdonk, who spent an unsuccessful half-season loan at Norwich City earlier this year, is another option in attack, while midfielder Augustus Kargbo, who was suspended on Saturday, could come back into the side.

Atalanta vs Cesena Odds

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Unsurprisingly, Atalanta are heavy favourites to triumph inside regulation time on Wednesday, with odds of 1/5 giving La Dea an implied win probability of 83.3%. Cesena, meanwhile, are 10/1, or a 9.1% chance, to beat Atalanta for the first time in their history, or 5/1 just to win the tie.

The draw, which would send the tie straight to a penalty shootout, can be backed at 9/2, while both teams to score inside 90 minutes is 11/10.

Retegui (5/6) and Lookman (19/20) head the anytime goalscorer market while Dutch duo Tavsan (5/1) and Van Hooijdonk (11/2) are first up for I Cavallucci Marini.

To Win Both Halves - Atalanta @ 7/5

Kudos to Cesena for reaching the last 16 but only one of the three opponents they've faced so far in the competition hail from the top flight, and that team - Hellas Verona - are currently 17th in Serie A, 22 points behind Atalanta, whom they lost 6-1 to at the Gewiss Stadium on October 26.

Cesena won on the weekend but that was their first victory for over a month as they followed up a 2-0 success at Cittadella on November 10 with a three-game winless run that included back-to-back defeats to Frosinone (3-2) and Bari (1-0). Michele Magnani's side are fifth in Serie B but 80 per cent (20) of their 25 points have been earned at home, while only Mantova (four) have picked up fewer points on their travels than Cesena (five).

I Cavallucci Marini have lost both away games this month and have won just three times on the road all season, although two of those triumphs have arrived in the Coppa Italia - at Verona (1-2) and Pisa (0-1).

Atalanta, though, are a different beast, and only Lazio (19) have won more Serie A points on their own ground than La Dea (18) this term. Gasperini's charges have won six of their seven home games in the league, beating the likes of Fiorentina (3-2) and AC Milan (2-1) along the way.

They've not enjoyed the same level of success in Europe, failing to beat Arsenal, Celtic (both 0-0) and Real Madrid (2-3) at the Gewiss, but did keep clean sheets in the first two of those, highlighting just how difficult they can be to breach in Bergamo.

Rotation could provide some hope for Cesena on Wednesday but Atalanta's squad is so strong these days that the effect should only be slight and, in fact, there are plenty of fringe players desperate to impress and that could spell even more danger for the visitors.

La Dea have won both halves of a game on seven occasions this season, most recently doing so in a 6-1 Champions League thrashing of Swiss side Young Boys in Bern on November 26, and can make it eight in midweek against less illustrious opponents.

Anytime Goalscorer - Lazar Samardzic (ATA) @ 2/1

I strongly considered Zaniolo in the same market, such is the Italian's goalscoring form at present, but the slightly higher odds of Samardzic have swayed me in the direction of the Serbian, who has impressed in cameos lately. The 22-year-old came off the bench to register an assist against reigning European champions Real Madrid and was a goalscoring substitute in his previous Champions League appearance against Young Boys.

Samardzic has scored three times for La Dea since joining on loan in the summer from Udinese, for whom he struck six times in Serie A last season, one more than in the 2022/23 campaign.

The Berlin-born attacker should get the opportunity to impress from the off against Cesena and I think he will grab his chance with both hands.

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