Atalanta vs Bologna Prediction: I Rossoblu can take Coppa Italia tie to pens

Atalanta and Bologna kick off this month's Coppa Italia quarter-finals on Tuesday (20:00, Premier Sports 1) when they meet at La Dea's Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo. The two clubs have already met once this season, playing out a 1-1 draw in Serie A at I Rossoblu's Stadio Renato Dall'Ara last September, but whether it be in regulation time or via penalties, one side will emerge as winners this week.

Below is my Atalanta vs Bologna prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Last season's Coppa Italia runners-up Atalanta will be without Marco Carnesecchi (thigh), Ademola Lookman (knee), Giorgio Scalvini (shoulder) and Odilon Kossounou (hamstring) on Tuesday. The quartet missed Saturday's 1-1 draw with Torino, with goalkeeper Carnesecchi pulling up in the warm-up, leaving summer arrival Rio Patricio to play his first Serie A minutes for the club.

Gianluca Scamacca made his first appearance of the 2024/25 campaign as a late substitute against I Rossoblu but is now awaiting specialist consultation after suffering a knee injury, making the 26-year-old forward a major doubt in midweek.

Leading Serie A marksman Mateo Retegui could, therefore, begin the game up top again alongside Charles De Ketelaere, with Gian Piero Gasperini's numbers limited in attack following the recent departure of loanee Nicolo Zaniolo. January arrival Daniel Maldini is cup-tied and unable to make his La Dea debut on Tuesday after appearing for his previous club Monza earlier in the competition.

The likes of Mario Pasalic, Lazar Samardzic and Juan Cuadrado could earn promotions to the starting XI after coming off the bench at the weekend, likewise Rafael Toloi, who replaced the stricken Sead Kolasinac (thigh) on the half-hour mark. Kolasinac has withdrawn through injury in back-to-back games now and will surely sit out the visit of Bologna.

Intriguingly, Bologna right-back Stefan Posch joined Atalanta on loan on Monday, and having not played any minutes in this season's Coppa Italia, could theoretically make his debut for Gasperini's side against his parent club this week.

Football Odds

Bologna have themselves been busy in the transfer market recently, allowing Samuel Iling Junior to return to Aston Villa before heading back out on loan to Middlesbrough, and sanctioning a temporary move for Kacper Urbanski to Serie A strugglers Monza.

Posch has been allowed to leave I Rossoblu as the club have sourced a suitably experienced replacement, Davide Calabria, on loan from Milan, although like Maldini, the 28-year-old is cup-tied.

Meanwhile, Lewis Ferguson (hamstring) is out again after missing Saturday's 2-0 win over Como, while Riccardo Orsolini is a doubt with the thigh injury that saw him substituted in the first half of Bologna's 2-1 victory over Borussia Dortmund on January 21.

In terms of changes to Vincenzo Italiano's starting XI, Thijs Dallinga could vacate the centre-forward position for Argentine 20-year-old Santiago Castro, while Giovanni Fabian, who came off the bench to score his side's second on Saturday, will hope he has done enough to convince his manager to promote him.

Juan Miranda, who provided the assist for Fabian against Como, could come in at left-back for Charalampos Lykogiannis.

Atalanta vs Bologna Odds

Atalanta have only won one of their last four games at the Gewiss but are 4/6 favourites to triumph inside regulation time on Tuesday, giving the hosts an implied win probability of 60%. Bologna, meanwhile, are 100/30, or a 23.1% chance, to beat La Dea without the need for a penalty shootout (extra time has been scrapped until the semi-final stage).

The draw, which would send the tie to spot-kicks, is priced at 13/5, while both teams to score is available at 8/11.

Booking Points Over/Under +42.5 - Over 42.5 @ 5/6

Neither Bologna nor Atalanta are known as particularly 'dirty' teams, but recent history suggests we could see sparks fly on Tuesday.

September's meeting saw seven cards dished out, six of a yellow variety and one of a red, with 85 booking points produced in total.

Both head-to-heads last season saw at least 50 booking points awarded, the same as in 2022/23, meaning over 42.5 booking points has been a winner in five straight matches between the two teams.

With a two-legged semi-final against either Juventus or Lecce up for grabs, we could see more tension on Tuesday which would only add to my belief that several cards could be in the offing.

Match Result & Both Teams to Score - Draw & Yes @ 18/5

There was nothing to separate the sides in September as Bologna and Atalanta drew 1-1, although I Rossoblu so nearly claimed all three points at the Renato Dall'Ara. Castro handed the hosts the lead just 50 seconds after the second-half whistle and despite Jhon Lucumi's red card five minutes, later, Italiano's charges looked to be holding on for a vital victory until Samardzic popped up in the 90th minute to snatch a point for the visitors.

Bologna have been rather prone to a stalemate this season, drawing 45.5 per cent (10) of their 22 league games, and only one of those has finished goalless.

Draws haven't been as commonplace for Atalanta, who have experienced five stalemates in the Italian top flight this term, four of which - including their 1-1 with Bologna - saw both teams score.

La Dea have also drawn three times in the Uefa Champions League league phase, the same number as I Rossoblu, who, like Gasperini's side, have seen four of their last seven matches in all competitions finish level.

Atalanta are 10 points clear of their next opponents in Serie A and finished above them last season, but only by a point, and Bologna could cut this season's lead down to seven if they win their game in hand.

Bologna beat Atalanta home and away in 2023/24 so they know how to cause La Dea problems, even if they don't have the same manager or players as last sesaon.

With Tuesday's hosts missing several key players, notably Lookman and Scalvini, there is an opportunity for Bologna in Bergamo, and I think they can at least force the tie to a penalty shootout, although I do see both teams scoring, too.

Atalanta are second in the Serie A BTTS table with 65 per cent (15) of their 23 top-flight outings seeing at least one goal on either side, while Bologna (59 per cent - 13) are eighth in those standings.

Offers

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.