Atalanta vs Liverpool Prediction: Reds target European comeback

 | 17th April | 

3 mins read

The Europa League returns on Thursday night and Liverpool face an uphill task if they are to stay in the competition. They shockingly lost 3-0 at Anfield to Atalanta, and now they must travel to Italy to try and complete an unlikely comeback. With kick-off at 20:00, and the game live on TNT Sports, fans of the Merseyside club will be watching in hope, rather than expectation, that Jurgen Klopp can keep the dream of a Dublin finale alive. 

Below you can find my Atalanta vs Liverpool prediction, featuring betting tips, match odds and team news. 

Atalanta vs Liverpool Tips

  • Liverpool to win -1 @ 6/4
  • Salah to score first @ 4/1

Team News

Liverpool may have lost against Crystal Palace at the weekend, but there was some positive news on the injury front. Alisson, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Diogo Jota all got minutes, with the trio likely to be thrown straight into the starting XI for this do-or-die game. 

Conor Bradley is now expected to be out for three weeks after picking up an ankle injury, which means Trent is needed perhaps earlier than expected, at right-back. Stefan Bajcetic is on his way back from an injury that has kept him out until September and could feature on the bench, while Joel Matip, Thiago and Ben Doak all remain out. 

Atalanta are likely to name the same XI as they did at Anfield, as they had huge success against Liverpool in that 3-0 win. Only Giorgio Scalvini and Sead Kolasinac are absent for this one, with Gianluca Scamacca looking to add to the brace he bagged in the first leg. 

Match Odds

Atalanta are priced at 3/1 to win this game in 90 minutes, while Liverpool are available at 7/10. That gives the Reds a win probability of 58%, while a draw is priced at 18/5. Meanwhile if you fancy goals, BTTS is 4/9 and over 2.5 goals is 4/11.

Liverpool to win -1 @ 6/4

After that first leg, it seems strange to back Liverpool to win this one. But they simply have to. The performance against Crystal Palace at the weekend was concerning, and that defeat has knocked them off course in the Premier League. However, they created a boatload of opportunities in that match, with an xG of 3.39. 

Liverpool have to take their chances this time around, and they did create an xG of 1.84 against Atalanta in the first leg. This gives me some belief that they are ready to try and dismantle the Italians away from home. The Reds know what the task at hand is, so they are likely to win this game in 90 minutes at the very least, while Atalanta can afford to lose this game by two goals and still progress. 

It’s why Liverpool to win with a -1 handicap is my first selection. Even if the Reds cannot turn around the tie completely, they should be able to find a decent win in Bergamo. 

Salah to score first @ 4/1

Liverpool have to start quickly at the Gewiss Stadium, and now there is no doubt that they will be starting their very best XI on Thursday night. Mo Salah, Darwin Nunez and Diogo Jota should start up front, with Alexander-Arnold also boosting the attacking threat from right-back. 

The Reds are going to be on the front foot, but it makes the most sense to back Salah to find the net before anybody else. The Egyptian has scored 23 in 37 games in all competitions this season, and four in eight in the Europa League. As the club’s designated penalty taker and most dangerous threat, I’m happy to back him as the first goalscorer at odds of 4/1.

Check out our other Football Betting Tips here. 

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