Atalanta vs Fiorentina Prediction: La Dea to leapfrog Juventus with win

 | Saturday 1st June 2024, 16:44pm

Saturday 1st June 2024, 16:44pm

atalanta fiorentina prediction betting tips serie a sunday 02 june 2024

Fiorentina must brush themselves down after the disappointment of Wednesday's extra-time defeat to Olympiakos in the Europa Conference League final as they take a trip to Bergamo to face Atalanta on Sunday (17:00, TNT Sports 4).

The action from the Gewiss Stadium will be the last of the 2023/24 Serie A season, with all 18 other sides finishing their respective campaigns last weekend. Read below for my Atalanta vs Fiorentina prediction, as La Viola look to avenge their Coppa Italia exit in April.

Atalanta vs Fiorentina Betting Tips

  • Half-time/full-time - Atalanta/Atalanta @ 21/20
  • Ademola Lookman first goalscorer @ 9/2

Atalanta will play Champions League football next term after securing a top-five place in Italy's top-flight, and they added further gloss to their season by beating Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 in Dublin to lift the Europa League trophy last month.

La Dea are currently fourth in Serie A but can leapfrog Juventus into third with a win on Sunday.

Fiorentina, on the other hand, are rooted to eighth no matter the result in Bergamo. It's a position that has seen them qualify for the Europa Conference League for the third successive season, though La Viola will be hoping for more luck in 2025 as they have lost the last two finals of the competition.

Jarrod Bowen struck a 90th-minute winner for West Ham United in a 2-1 win last year, while Olympiakos' Ayoub El Kaabi popped up in the 116th minute on Wednesday in Athens to give the Greeks a 1-0 victory after extra time.

If that wasn't enough motivation for this weekend, the last head-to-head between Atalanta and Fiorentina, on April 24 at the Gewiss Stadium, saw the former win 4-1 in the second leg of their Coppa Italia semi-final to advance to the final 4-2 on aggregate, though La Dea finished runners-up after losing 1-0 to Juventus at the Stadio Olimpico.

Fiorentina won the reverse league fixture between these sides at the Stadio Artemio Franchi in Florence last September, despite Atalanta twice taking the lead through Teun Koopmeiners and Ademola Lookman. Giacomo Bonaventura, Lucas Martinez Quarta and Christian Kouama scored the goals for Vincenzo Italiano's side.

Team News

Marten de Roon was on the bench for Atalanta's Europa League triumph over Leverkusen, but that was merely a show of appreciation for a player who has been so influential for La Dea. The reality is that the Dutchman has a knee injury and will not be able to line up for his nation at this summer's European Championship, let alone take part in Sunday's Serie A finale.

Sead Kolasinac could also miss out after being substituted at half-time in Dublin and missing last weekend's 3-0 win over Torino, but Hans Hateboer is free to return from suspension.

Fiorentina forward Riccardo Sottil fractured his collarbone at the start of May and will be sidelined for a seventh successive game this weekend, while Gaetano Castrovilli is considered a doubt.

Rolando Mandragora must serve a one-match suspension for an accumulation of yellow cards in the competition.

Atalanta vs Fiorentina Odds

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The hosts are 4/9 to triumph and secure third place, giving them an implied win probability of 69.2%, while the visitors are 11/2, or a 15.4% chance.

The draw is available at 4/1, both teams to score at 4/6, and over 2.5 goals at 1/2.

Half-time/full-time - Atalanta/Atalanta @ 21/20

Defeat to Juventus in the Coppa Italia final aside, Atalanta have finished the season with a flourish, winning six of their last seven, and nine of their last 11.

Fast starts have been a big feature of their games, with seven of those nine wins since April 21 seeing them head into the interval with a lead, including the cup victory over Fiorentina.

The last month hasn't been quite so successful for Fiorentina, who have only won two of their last six matches.

Sunday's game could be the final one of the Italiano era as he continues to be linked to the Bologna job, which is expected to be vacant soon with Thiago Motta bound for Juventus. Italiano will want to end on a high, but with La Viola unable to move up or down, and on the back of a crippling blow in the Europa Conference League final just a few days ago, it will be difficult to lift his players for this one.

Changes are expected to the starting XI, but while that should provide the side with more energy, it would also see a lot of quality removed from the team.

As such, with Atalanta gunning for the win which would earn them third place, I expect a comfortable victory for the hosts, with an early goal or two.

Half-time-full-time - Atalanta-Atalanta vs Fiorentina at 21-20

Ademola Lookman first goalscorer @ 9/2

The Europa League hat-trick hero wrote his name into history in Dublin and will be looking to sign off in style this weekend.

Unlike some of his teammates, Lookman won't be featuring at an international tournament this summer, as Nigeria played in the Africa Cup of Nations finals at the start of the year.

As such, while some players may have one eye on the European Championship or Copa America, Lookman should be one man that has his eyes fixed firmly on producing the goods on Sunday.

He followed up his treble against Leverkusen with Atalanta's second against Torino last weekend and has six goals in his last six starts, with two of them being the opening strike.

The 26-year-old scored against Fiorentina at the Gewiss Stadium in April and also found the net in the reverse league fixture in Florence, while he struck the only goal of the game in a 1-0 win for La Dea in Bergamo in October 2022.

At 9/2, Lookman is a great price to score first on Sunday as he looks to take advantage of a despondent Fiorentina side.

Ademola Lookman first goalscorer in Atalanta vs Fiorentina at 9-2

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