Aston Villa vs West Ham United Prediction: Potter magic to spellbind cup-shy Villans

The Julen Lopetegui era at West Ham United, which was short and not very sweet, was officially brought to an end on Wednesday evening and followed by the Thursday morning appointment of former Brighton and Chelsea head coach Graham Potter, whose first game in charge of the Irons will be Friday's FA Cup third round clash against Aston Villa at Villa Park (20:00, ITV1).

Below is my Aston Villa vs West Ham United prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

One of the few black marks against Unai Emery's reign as Aston Villa boss has been his inability to guide his side to the latter stages of a domestic cup competition. Since his October 2022 appointment, the Villans have failed to get past the fourth round of either the FA Cup or Carabao Cup, and his team selections have been mixed.

I'm expecting wholesale changes on Friday given they face a trip to Merseyside in midweek, taking on Everton at Goodison Park in the Premier League on Wednesday before another tough away game at Arsenal three days later.

Robin Olsen is likely to replace number one shot-stopper Emiliano Martinez while 19-year-old defender Kosta Nedeljkovic, likely to move on loan if and when Villa sign a right-back this month, could earn a rare start. Dutch 21-year-old Sil Swinkels, who played the duration of Villa's 2-1 Carabao Cup victory at Wycombe Wanderers in September, could start in central defence with first-teamers Pau Torres and Diego Carlos both ruled out through injury.

Ian Maatsen should come in for Lucas Digne at left-back and another Dutch 21-year-old, Lamare Bogarde, who has featured three times in the Premier League this season and started alongside Swinkels against Wycombe, is an option if Emery elects to rest both Ezri Konsa and Tyrone Mings.

Amadou Onana, Jacob Ramsey and Emiliano Buendia, none of whom have played much recently due to a combination of injury and stiff competition, should get the nod from the off to add some much-needed experience and quality to Friday's starting XI.

Emery's options in attack are limited by the suspension of Jhon Duran, who serves the final game of his ban this week. Given the Colombian will be back available for next Wednesday, Ollie Watkins is likely to start against West Ham with Emery knowing that he has another quality, well-rested striker to call upon in midweek.

Football Odds

Guessing a new manager's first starting XI is never easy and that remains the case here as Potter prepares to make his debut in the dugout as West Ham head coach. What's certain, though, is that he will be without goalkeeper Lukasz Fabianski, striker Michail Antonio and captain Jarrod Bowen. Left-back Emerson Palmieri is also doubtful after missing last Saturday's 4-1 defeat at Manchester City.

The Irons face Fulham at the London Stadium on Tuesday so one might think they are even more likely to make changes than Villa, who play a day later in midweek. However, Potter will want to get his side off to a good start under his stewardship and, unlike Villa, the east Londoners aren't in Europe this season, nor are they likely to qualify to play in continental competition next term, and so there should be a focus on the FA Cup.

Alphonse Areola will start in goal and we could see the same back four as at the Etihad Stadium with Vladimir Coufal, Jean-Clair Todibo, Max Kilman and Aaron Wan-Bissaka in defence, although Greek centre-back Konstantinos Mavropanos and experienced left-back Aaron Cresswell will be pushing for starts.

Mexican midfielder Edson Alvarez has been linked with a loan move to French side AS Monaco so it will be interesting to see whether he starts on Friday, with Argentina international Guido Rodriguez primed to take his place if not.

Tomas Soucek, Mohammed Kudus, Lucas Paqueta, Crysencio Summerville and Niclas Fullkrug could all keep their starting spots as Potter runs the rule over his main stars, although Carlos Soler, Luis Guilherme, Andrew Irving, Oliver Scarles and Danny Ings will all be looking for opportunities to impress, too.

Aston Villa vs West Ham United Odds

Aston Villa have won four of their last five home matches and are 7/10 to record back-to-back victories over West Ham having beaten United 2-1 at the London Stadium on the opening day of the 2024/25 Premier League season in August. Those odds give the Villans an implied win probability of 58.8%, while the Irons are 16/5, or a 23.8% chance, to triumph inside regulation time and avoid extra time which would be triggered by a draw (100/30).

Both teams have scored in the last four head-to-heads between these sides and you can back BTTS - Yes on Friday at 4/7, while over 3.5 total goals, a winner at Villa Park last season when the hosts thrashed their visitors 4-1 in the Premier League, is priced at 6/4.

Watkins is favourite in the anytime (21/20) and first (3/1) goalscorer markets with Fullkrug (12/5 and 15/2 respectively) first up for the Irons.

To Win Tie - West Ham United @ 2/1

A new manager bounce, anyone? It's a famous adage, one well-worn in football and it certainly feels applicable in this situation. Out has gone Lopetegui, a manager who never seemed a suitable replacement for David Moyes, someone who delivered European success at West Ham but failed to truly capture the imagination of supporters with his style of play.

Lopetegui, a Spaniard who has managed his national team, Real Madrid, FC Porto and Sevilla, sounded like a sexy appointment on paper but those who had watched his sides, particularly at Wolves, had reservations about his fit at the Irons and whether he could deliver the brand of football desired by the board; he subsequently failed with results and style of play.

Potter, on the other hand, was lauded for building an identity at Brighton and, although his services were dispensed with pretty swiftly by Chelsea, his stock has remained high, which is why he was so heavily linked with the England national team vacancy since filled by another ex-Blues boss, Thomas Tuchel.

It's a tough task for Potter to come in at such late notice with a cup tie the day after his appointment as boss, but he should at least have one training session to get his points across and given the quality in the West Ham ranks, that might just be enough to inspire something special at Villa Park.

His arrival should breathe new life into a squad that looked devoid of confidence and ideas, with Lopetegui reportedly clashing with several key players during his brief stay in east London.

Villa, meanwhile, know that Emery's priorities lie elsewhere this season. Of course, supporters are desperate to see their side lift a long-awaited trophy - a proper cup, not one for winning the Championship play-offs following a fifth-placed finish - but Emery seems more intent on keeping consistency in the Premier League and progressing in Europe. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I don't get the feeling the Spaniard will be too disconsolate at exiting the FA Cup early on again.

Friday's hosts are also hamstrung by the unavailability of Torres, Diego Carlos and Duran, leaving them light in central defence and attack, so can Emery be blamed for making big changes?

Either way, I think the Irons will be bang up for this one, and 2/1 is a nice price for the east London club to win the tie by any means, whether that be in regulation time, extra time or after a penalty shootout.

Player to Receive a Card - Ian Maatsen (AVL) @ 4/1

This looks a big price to me considering Maatsen's disciplinary record in the previous four seasons and the problems Kudus, his likely direct opponent, tends to cause defenders.

Maatsen received nine yellows in 34 League 1 appearances for Charlton Athletic, in 2020/21, nine yellows and one red in 40 Championship appearances for Coventry City the following season, eight yellows and one red in 39 second-tier games for Burnley in 2022/23, and five cautions in 16 Bundesliga outings for Borussia Dortmund last term. The 22-year-old was also booked in three of his seven Champions League matches in 2023/24.

The Dutchman has only seen yellow twice for Villa since his summer move from Chelsea but his minutes have been limited and in the last game where he completed at least an hour, a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace at Villa Park on November 23, he was cautioned.

Maatsen will face a tough test on Friday if Kudus is selected and deployed from the right-hand side of West Ham's attack. The Ghanaian has drawn the ire of Irons supporters for some lacklustre displays this season and for a perceived lack of application and/or selfishness with the ball, but there's no denying his talent when in possession and running at defenders.

The difficulties of marking the 24-year-old are highlighted by the fact he is fouled an average of 1.7 times per game in the Premier League and he was taken down five times the last time these two teams met in August. He played on the left that day but with Summerville in the side now he has been moved to a more favoured position on the right and that could spell danger for Maatsen who might be forced to take alternative action in a bid to stop the former Ajax star from advancing on goal.

Offers

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