Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur Prediction: Big home win expected

Aston Villa can put the pressure on the teams above them in their bid to secure Champions League football next season if they can beat Tottenham Hotspur at home on Friday night (19:30, Sky Sports Premier League).

Spurs have bigger fish to fry with the upcoming Europa League final on Wednesday against Manchester United now the be all and end all of their season. Below you can find my Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur predictions for this Premier League clash. 

Team News

Youri Tielemans missed the win over Bournemouth through injury and could also miss out here, as Unai Emery made four changes for Saturday’s South Coast success. Lucas Digne, Tyrone Mings, Amadou Onana and Jacob Ramsey were all handed starts with ​​John McGinn, Pau Torres and Ian Maatsen dropped along with Tielemans.

Football Odds

McGinn should come back into the midfield to replace the suspended Ramsey, after he was sent off at Bournemouth, while it’s a toss-up between Mings and Torres at this stage. Emery has just two games left of what has been an arduous season, but Champions League qualification is still doable as the Villans sit level on points with Chelsea and just two points behind Man City - who they could overtake as the Citizens compete in the FA Cup final this weekend. 

Marcus Rashford remains sidelined with a hamstring injury meaning that Donyell Malen or Leon Bailey could see more minutes on Friday night. 

For Tottenham, expect a scratch team to rock up at Villa Park. Ange Postecoglou has been trying to prepare his team in the right way for the Europa League final, and the team he put out against Crystal Palace was sub-standard and they were punished for it. 

Despite that, in a bid to keep his stars away from injury danger, I’d expect a similar XI here, with the likes of Mikey Moore, Wilson Odobert, Archie Gray and goalkeeper Antonin Kinsky all expected to feature. Some of his key men may be given a few minutes to sharpen up, but it doesn’t feel like it is worth the risk at this stage. 

Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur Odds

Aston Villa have been priced up as the favourites for this home game at 1/3, giving them an implied win probability of 75%. Tottenham are the rank outsiders at 6/1, while a draw can be backed at 9/2 at Villa Park. 

Over 2.5 goals has come in during 67% of Villa matches so far and is 4/11 while BTTS is 4/7. If you fancy a first goalscorer, Ollie Watkins currently leads the market at 3/1.

Aston Villa -2 handicap @ 11/5

This should be fairly straightforward. Spurs have nothing to play for and will play their second-string, while Villa are going to be going all out to get the three points and boost their goal difference in the process. I’m going to back a heavy home win based on the fact that Villa are in such fine fettle with six wins out of seven in the league, while they’ve also only lost once at Villa Park in the Premier League all season. 

Spurs meanwhile, well they have endured a simply dreadful campaign - with the defeat against Palace their 20th out of 36 league games so far. Aside from the three relegated teams they have the worst away record this term having picked up just 17 points from 18 matches, and I think this is already a game they need to write off before they head to Bilbao. 

A big home win is on the cards for me. 

Ollie Watkins to score 2+ @ 18/5

Spurs have lost four of their last five and over 2.5 goals has come in during the last five meetings between the two sides so it’s fair to say that we should expect Villa to find the net a few times on Friday night. 

I’m going to pick Watkins to get two or more as a result, as he found the net against Bournemouth and has scored three in his last five PL outings. Interestingly, only three of those have been starts for the England striker, and the arrival of Rashford did appear to rub him up the wrong way as the Manchester United loanee was chosen ahead of him for key European matches. 

However, now Rashford is injured, we should see Watkins start again, and when he is on the pitch he tends to score. Up against the likely centre-back duo of Kevin Danso and Ben Davies, he should have a profitable evening. 

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