Aston Villa vs Manchester City Prediction: Duran can be City’s Pantomime Villan

Aston Villa welcome Manchester City to Villa Park in the Premier League on Saturday (12:30, TNT Sports 1), hoping to bounce back from their disappointing defeat at Nottingham Forest last week. The Villans conceded two late goals at the City Ground after going ahead earlier in the second half.

City suffered a late turnaround themselves at the hands of rivals Manchester United on home soil last Sunday, as their woes continue on the football pitch. They will look for an immediate response here, but it might not be forthcoming. Read on for my Aston Villa vs Manchester City prediction, accompanied by the latest match odds and team news.

Aston Villa vs Manchester City Odds

Aston Villa are 11/5, which has an implied probability of 31.3%, to win this fixture. Unai Emery's side have won four of their eight home games so far, including their last two against Brentford and Southampton.

Man City are valued at 21/20 (48.8%) to take the three points. The Citizens have won just three of their trips on the road this term, though. The draw is on offer at 13/5 (27.8%), which these sides have experienced on seven occasions between them in the top flight. City's last away game was a 2-2 stalemate at Crystal Palace.

Both teams to score, a winning selection in three of Villa's last four encounters at home in the top flight, is priced at 1/2. Over 3.5 goals has landed in two of the last three league games at Villa Park and is marketed at 11/8 for Saturday.

Football Odds

Team News

Villa striker Ollie Watkins was able to shake off a "small injury" against RB Leipzig last week to feature against Forest, making a cameo from the bench in the second half. Emery must decide whether to reinstate him to the number nine role on Saturday, or to continue with Jhon Duran, who led the line against the Tricky Trees.

Leon Bailey was absent from the squad again following the hamstring problem he picked up when facing Southampton, and his inclusion this time around looks doubtful. Fellow attacker Jacob Ramsey remains confined to the medical bay with a thigh problem.

Despite a lack of attacking options at the moment, it was surprising to see Jaden Philogene left out of the squad in Nottingham as right-back and former Red Matty Cash took to the field on the right flank. It hasn't been specified that Philogene has an injury so it appeared to be a bold call from the manager.

It will be interesting to see if he makes the cut against City, otherwise Cash could support John McGinn and Morgan Rogers once again. Emi Buendia is another option but it doesn't seem he has the trust of Emery, having made only seven substitute appearances in the league this season. There are whispers that he could be available for a loan or permanent transfer in January.

For City, Rodri remains their only long-term absentee with an ACL injury. Oscar Bobb is recovering from a leg fracture and he is not expected back until the new year.

Pep Guardiola will welcome back the versatile Rico Lewis from suspension and he could return to the left side of defence, if his boss decides to reintegrate him straight away.

Many players were off the boil against United last Sunday, and so we could see a few alterations in the West Midlands. Mateo Kovacic could return to the engine room, where he had been impressing before a recent injury setback.

Wingers Savinho and Jack Grealish, a former Villa star, will be hoping for promotions themselves. Grealish is coming under a lot of scrutiny at the moment as a whole calendar year has passed since his last goal for the Citizens.

Aston Villa or draw and both teams to score @ 7/5

Villa will have been concerned by the manner of the Forest defeat, and will be desperate to make amends at the first attempt. I think they will be looking forward to facing the defending champions in their current state, who have won just one of their last 11 fixtures in all competitions.

Guardiola's side are nowhere near as fearsome as they have been over the years, and they are going through a very tricky spell that appears to be tough to shake. This is as good a time as any for any side in the division to face them.

If you think you're experiencing chaos out on the pitch, so are they. Some of their players don't seem to grasp the basics right now and I'm not naming names but this one person gave us a theatrical dive last weekend.

Both these sides lost but Villa come into this game in a much better place overall and that could be key in B6. Let's also not forget they won this exact fixture 1-0 just over a year ago in what was a key victory in their quest for Champions League qualification. It was a 1-0 scoreline that day but I think this edition could wind up being a little more entertaining.

I'm covering double chance with a draw in Villa's favour because I think City are in crisis at the moment and are quite easy to beat/score against. Villa may not have their full attacking might readily available but I believe they have enough to trouble a fragile defence.

However, the reason I'm also covering the draw is just in case City turn in a performance like they did against Forest. I think we're likely to see more of what was on display against United, but I like having the insurance.

I've also added both teams to score because neither backline fills me with confidence. Villa have shipped 25 goals so far and City themselves have conceded 23. As far as BTTS is concerned, it has landed in six of the visitors' away games so far this term, so I do see this trend continuing at Villa Park.

Jhon Duran anytime goalscorer @ 13/8

Whether he starts or makes an appearance from the bench, I can see Villa's Colombian striker having a big impact against this struggling City side. He has six goals in the Premier League so far and he has been on the scoresheet in his last two appearances against Southampton and Forest.

It's three in three across all competitions if you include his strike against RB Leipzig in the Champions League, so this is a man in excellent form right now. Man City have managed just one shutout in the league away from home this campaign and that came all the way back in their opening fixture against Chelsea.

They have conceded in seven consecutive away games since in the top flight, and I'm sure this will continue at Villa Park on Saturday. I'm also very confident that Duran will be on hand to punish their defensive mishaps.

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